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Long Term Optimistic About Brand Clothing Leading, Short-Term Concern Cotton Price Rise Opportunity

2012/2/6 14:20:00 16

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Long Term Optimistic About Brand Clothing Opportunities

One week's main point: after the Spring Festival, the growth rate of retail sales of 100 key retail enterprises in December 2011 was announced. In December, with the increase of sales promotion at the end of each shopping mall, textile and garment retail sales rebounded sharply, confirming the pre peak consumption season.

But both the year-on-year growth in retail sales and sales also showed us: 1) because of recent years.

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The pricing of clothing industry is becoming more and more expensive, making consumption gradually become "unbearable". 2) the expectation of the decline of the real economy may be quietly affecting people's consumption behavior.

Last week, we launched the research activities of three companies of Semir, LAN Zi and Mei Bang respectively. After investigation, we anticipate: 1) Semir apparel is expected to slow down in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the late winter, which affects the sales of winter clothing.

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And net profit growth is more than 20%, net profit growth is lower than income growth.

2) the single store revenue of Shanghai has maintained a high growth rate of 30%-50%, and the sales revenue of single store in Shanghai can reach 9 million.

3) the United States has achieved remarkable results in inventory digestion. It is estimated that the stock will be 2 billion 500 million yuan by the end of 2011. The revenue growth in 2012 is expected to increase by more than 20%. Net profit growth will be faster than revenue growth.

Last week, the textile and garment sector was stronger than the market.

Last week textile and apparel index rose 2.63%, compared with Shen Wan A, which rose 1.43%.

Among them, the clothing index rose 2.21%, relative to Shen Wan A rose 1.01%; textile index rose 3.16%, relative to Shen Wan A rose 1.96%, stronger than the market.

Industry basic data: cotton prices continued to narrow last week, a slight increase of 0.4% yuan to 19353 yuan / ton.

The price of PET staple increased 4.2% from pre holiday to 12450 yuan / ton.

Viscose staple fiber prices continued to report 17500 yuan / ton price, up 4.17%.

Hundred retail data: 2011, China's 100 major large-scale retail enterprises

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Nominal growth of 22.62% over the same period last year, up 0.51 percentage points from the same period last year, is the fastest growth in retail sales since 2005.

In December, the number of retail sales of 100 major large-scale retail enterprises increased by 20.75% over the same period last year, 4.75 percentage points higher than that in November.

Textile and clothing retail sales grew by 22.75% over the same period last year, up nearly 12.5 percentage points from November.

PMI data: in January 2012, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last month, and continued to expand in the expansion area, higher than market expectations.

36.7 of the textile industry and 53.5 of the clothing industry.

Our view: textile and apparel are at the bottom now.

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However, the market is still not enthusiastic about the overall consumer goods. We expect that the apparel home textile companies have little room to go, but they still need to wait for the fashion to buy. It is expected that the 3-4 month will be a good time window. When the quarterly report is clearer, the growth rate of the order will be clear.

Recently, due to the rise in cotton futures prices, the market has raised concerns about textile sub sectors, but we expect export demand to be relatively weak.