Forecast Analysis Of Textile Industry Resources Accelerating To Large Enterprises In 2012

Under the influence of multiple factors, high export growth will be difficult to continue this year, especially for export enterprises.

The growth of textile exports is mostly "inflated".

Average export enterprises

Due to the impact of the global financial crisis, China appeared the first negative growth -10.5% in nearly ten years in 2009, and the total export volume was only 160 billion 882 million US dollars a year. The decline in export volume resulted in a lower base year base. At such a low level, the high export growth in 2010 was achieved.

In the first quarter of 2011, exports grew at a relatively high rate.

In the first quarter of this year, about 8 percentage points of textile export growth was "inflated" by the low base in the first quarter of 2010.

Further deducting costs, driving up prices and appreciating the renminbi, the real export growth level is lower.

Moreover, this low base effect will soon begin to weaken in the two quarter of this year.

Data show that the first quarter of this year, China's textile clothing exports of $48 billion 627 million,

The preliminary results of the 3 sessions of the China Fair and the Canton Fair in the first two months of this year show that although the overseas purchasers have taken the initiative, the export enterprises have made careful decisions.

Short and medium accounts for 89%, and orders for more than 6 months account for only 10%.

Because of the frequent changes in exchange rate and raw material prices, export enterprises generally dare not sign long lists or even dare not accept them.

According to the Ministry of commerce data, the average profit margin of China's export enterprises in 2010 was 1.47%, which dropped to 1.44% in 1-2 this year.

Polarization intensifies

The survival of SMEs is worrying.

With rising prices of raw materials, rising labor costs and the "three high" of RMB appreciation, the price rise of export enterprises is inevitable.

However, in order to ensure competitiveness in the international market, the price increase is far below the rise in cost.

In the 1-2 months of this year, the main products of China's spinning and weaving products increased substantially to the average export price of the world's total exports. The yarn increased by 24.70%, the fabric increased by 28.70%, and the clothing increased by 13.70%.

The order price of textile enterprises at the China Fair is generally up by 15%-20% compared with the same period last year, and the price range of individual products is even higher.

However, foreign businesses are generally unable to accept the increase in prices above 10%-15%. Some European and American customers have begun to reduce their purchases in China, and some low-end goods tend to purchase from low cost regions such as Southeast Asia.

Most of the small and medium-sized enterprises generally say it is difficult to support because of the general increase in costs and the acceleration of RMB appreciation.

Wang Qianjin believes that at present, the number of small and medium-sized enterprises in China's textile industry is the main body. Over 95% of the enterprises produce low-end OEM products. Under the background of industrial restructuring, the polarization of export enterprises is intensifying. The industry will probably play a big shuffle of "strong and strong, weak elimination".

Industrial resources will accelerate to large enterprises.

He said there are only two kinds of enterprises that can survive in the international market in the future.

First, enterprises with an average profit of more than 5% still have room for relaxation; two, enterprises with bargaining power can pass on the increase in cost through raising prices.

The era of "low growth and high cost" is coming.

Wang Qianjin believes that, thanks to the improvement of the structure of export products, coupled with the overall rise in the export unit price, the recovery of export volume under the global economic recovery has jointly promoted the expected growth of textile exports in 2010.

But as for 2011, the "leading role" that has sped up the overall export growth of China's spinning and weaving industry has changed from quantity growth to export price rise.

It also shows that export enterprises are facing increasing pressure of cost pmission.

Now, the sharp changes in the internal and external environment are affecting China's exports.

Wang Qian analysis shows that the growth rate of textile exports will be reduced to around 15% in 2011, and the increase will be the main driver of export growth.

On the one hand, global demand for centralized replenishment has come to an end. In 2011, it will not have the low base effect peculiar to last year. Two, the cost of textile export products will be forced to lift 10%-15% on the cost. The price competition process is very difficult, and some low price orders will turn to low cost areas.