Textile And Garment Market Lacks Overall Opportunity &Nbsp; Consumption Concept Is Still Popular.

In 2011, there was no increase in public offering funds except money type, which could be the worst year since 2008.

The decline in performance has also led to the shrinking of the fund's overall asset management scale.

Whether for fund investors or fund companies themselves, the past 2011 has been a tough year.

As for the market in 2012, the attitude of each fund is more cautious. From the perspective of fund companies' investment strategy in 2012, policy is still regarded as an important factor in leading the market.

Although most funds believe that the market lacks overall opportunities in 2012, the configuration of Pan consumer is still favored by the fund in the new year.

Stock debt double kill asset management scale shrank by 10%

Statistics from the good buy fund research center show that equity funds declined the most in 2011, down 25.02% year-round and 3.3 percentage points off the market.

Although the stock fell as a whole, the structural differentiation of the shares was also more serious. The central card 100 (2545.210,24.13,0.96%) on behalf of large cap stocks fell by 20.87%, representing 500 of the 33.83% of the small cap stocks, while most of the stock funds focused on small and medium-sized stocks, so the funds were relatively large.

Equity funds fell by 22.35%, while the mixed funds were also unable to avoid the bad luck of serious losses. Although the positions were relatively flexible, the stock position remained on the whole as a whole and fell 21.95% year-round. The Q D II fund has been in great distress since the launch of the stock market, and it has hardly gained positive returns for investors. In 2011, the stock market has fallen sharply again, with a year-round fall of 20.81%, while the closed-end fund has dropped slightly, but has also fallen 16.67%. In 2008, when the stock fund was down, the bond fund had a great prospect, and achieved nearly 7% positive returns for investors. In 2011, the bond fund ended its 6 consecutive year of positive earnings, falling 2.81% in the whole year. As a result of the majority of index funds, the performance of index funds is slightly better than that of index funds.

From the performance of a single equity fund, all are losses.

The top three were 9.50% in Bo's theme industry, 9.93% in Peng Hua's value advantage and 10.95% in Eastern strategy.

These funds are mainly based on the allocation of blue chips, such as the financial industry and the real estate industry, so they declined less in 2011.

The three largest decline was 41.77% of Yinhua's domestic demand, 40.15% of domestic demand driven, and 39.58% of China's industrial upgrading.

"For the market judgment errors, Yinhua domestic demand has allocated a large number of small and medium sized stocks and GEM stocks, which has suffered heavy losses," Lu Huitian, the research center of the good buy fund, pointed out. "While the domestic demand driven is dominated by collocation and mining in the allocation of the plates, such strong cyclical sectors in 2011 have a larger decline, dragging down the net value of the fund.

Equity funds are divided seriously on the whole. Although they are all losing money, the difference between the first and last performance is 30 percentage points, which indicates that the gap between the funds is bigger and bigger when the number of funds is increasing.

Although the number of funds expanded rapidly in 2011, the total number increased from 704 at the end of 2010 to 914 at the end of 2011, the largest number in the past year, with an increase of 29.83%.

However, the total size of fund management assets shrank sharply in 2011, down from 12.45% yuan to 2 trillion and 186 billion 400 million yuan at 2 trillion and 497 billion 200 million yuan at the end of 2010.

The market is not good, and the serious loss of fund is the main reason for the shrinking of fund management assets.

Short term probability of economic downturn or inflection point in recent years

Speaking of the economic situation in the first half of 2012, Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund (micro-blog) pointed out that the main driving factors of China's economy are external demand and investment, and the fluctuation of exports and investment is the main reason for the economic cycle fluctuations.

From the next few quarters, the policy of real estate regulation and inflation suppression will lead to continued decline in real estate investment, because real estate investment accounts for about 1/4 of the total fixed asset investment, taking into account the external demand environment in 2012 and judging the continued contraction of China's economy in the first half of 2012.

From the leading indicators and the history of the recession cycle duration, the economic downturn continued at least until the one or two quarter of 2012.

For the overall macroeconomic situation in 2012, several fund companies have similar views.

Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund believes that from the perspective of this year's economic trend, it is expected to appear before the low and high trend, and the economic turning point is expected to appear at the end of the two quarter. The main reasons lie in: first, the adjustment of the inventory cycle may end at the end of the first quarter, when the replenishment of the Treasury has a certain degree of driving force for economic recovery; second, the world economy presents a low and high trend; third, the real estate regulation is expected to gradually fine tune in the second half of the year after the housing price callbacks; fourth, the stable economic policy will play a role in recovery to a certain extent under the background of the economic downturn in the beginning of this year.

Long letter fund (micro-blog) pointed out that from the economic situation, the short cycle of economic downturn probability is large, medium-term retreat because of retreat.

In the short term, the downward trend of the economy is clear. Real estate and investment trends will continue. In the medium term, fiscal and monetary policies still have larger space, which will play a positive role in stabilizing the economy this year. From the perspective of inflation, the downward trend of food prices, the decline in economic and monetary growth and the fall in commodity prices are conducive to continuous downward inflation.

The high inflation point is already in place. The downward trend of inflation in 2012 is clear. From a policy perspective, the policy has shifted from "anti inflation, structural adjustment and steady growth" to "steady growth, price control and structural adjustment".

Although the keynote of monetary policy has not changed, substantive pformation has begun, and monetary and fiscal policies have room for relaxation in 2012.

UBS Zhu Hongyu believes that from the perspective of macroeconomic regulation and control, the government's tolerance for the economic downturn is improving, and the policy has gradually entered the substantive stage of fine-tuning from observation.

The phased opportunity driven by policy easing is worth looking forward to, but on the whole, the huge circulation market value makes it difficult to reproduce the bull market in 2005-2007 years. Financing and lifting the ban also restrict the overall revenue space of the two market, and investors must establish reasonable revenue expectations.

2012: fund cautiously optimistic, pan consumption is still the focus.

In 2011, China's economy dropped, and the A share market entered a cold winter. But the Xinhua Fund (micro-blog) expects that the stock market will have a "fall out" rally early this year in the environment of moderate easing and liquidity improvement.

Throughout the year, Xinhua fund judged that the Shanghai composite index showed a U trend, which was a big probability event.

Judging from the return on assets in large categories, the long Trust Fund believes that the attraction of stock as a large class asset to stock funds has increased significantly.

The correction of pessimism and the improvement of liquidity in 2012 will push up the index.

From a quarterly perspective, the main logic of the index rise in the first half of this year lies in the reduction of risk premium and the increase in valuation brought about by the improvement of liquidity. The main logic of the second half of the market lies in the improvement of profits brought by the economic bottoming out.

"Through the analysis of historical experience data, comparative analysis of the value and analysis of our analysts from bottom to top, we have long been optimistic about the large consumer industries under the background of expanding domestic demand, as well as the new growth industries represented by energy saving and environmental protection industries, new generation information technology industry, biopharmaceutical, health care, and media entertainment.

In the first quarter, we are more optimistic about auto industry, home appliances, real estate, cement industry and high elasticity insurance industry.

Xinhua Fund said that the selection of stocks is still one of the priorities of this year.

On the one hand, it identifies the oversold stocks that have been wrongly killed by the market in the previous down market, and on the other hand, it explores the growth stocks with prominent growth potential in every industry.

In the specific industry allocation, the long trust fund described in its annual strategy: "in the first half of the year, we look at the repair of valuations, and see the improvement of profitability in the second half of the year, and the degree of prosperity as the importance of industry allocation."

From the investment target, durable consumer goods are better than investment and consumption. Investment and consumption are better than resources.

For the industry investors who have increased too high in 2011, they should be cautious.

2011 of the 10 industries with the best performance, 6 industries ranked the top 10 in 2010, while 7 of the worst performing industries in 2011 ranked 10 in 2010.

Specifically, aviation, commercial vehicles, shipping, nonferrous metals, electronic components, power equipment, auto parts, securities, machinery, information equipment, medicine and Commerce ranked the top of the list in 2011, which deserves our attention. Investors can also use the valuation to position the current industry.

Whether the valuation is reasonable or substantially lower than the historical mean is a necessary condition for the stock price to go up sharply. For example, finance and steel are at the bottom of historical valuation, and real estate, automobiles, machinery, household appliances, clothing and textiles, retail, media and computers are at a low level.

In addition, more attention should be paid to the changes in the allocation of institutions. The industry with absolute low allocation and poor standard allocation deserves attention. If there is a reversal of the fundamentals of the industry, it will be a good opportunity to get excess returns.

For example, the allocation ratio of medical biological and commercial trade has been significantly reduced, the proportion of real estate allocation in cyclical industries has been significantly reduced, and the absolute allocation ratio of large financial, media and public utilities (1885.410,23.49,1.26%) is still at a historical low level, which can be focused on.