Wenzhou Money War, How Long Will The Suspense Market Continue?

"Continued loan"

In recent years, because of the huge profits of the real estate industry, and the profits of the manufacturing industry have been thinned down, many manufacturing enterprises, including shoe makers, have begun to lose their jobs.

In July this year, the monitoring report of Wenzhou central sub branch of the people's Bank of China showed that about 20% of Wenzhou's private lending funds eventually went to the real estate market.

According to conservative estimates, Wenzhou's credit funds directly or indirectly enter the real estate market account for at least 1/3 of the total loans, and more than 50% of the loans are real estate as collateral.

The super profit of real estate has attracted more and more people to join.

However, as the people's Bank of China continuously raised the deposit reserve ratio and the credit tightening measures, after July this year, commercial banks began to pump capital, not renew loans or raise interest rates in order to prevent the collapse of small and medium enterprises and the risk of private lending.

The dilemma of small and medium enterprises

For small and medium-sized enterprises, on the one hand, banks have difficulty in obtaining loans, so they have to pay high interest rates to private lending.

The huge private lending market and profiteering led to 89% of households or individuals and 59.67% of enterprises in Wenzhou.

For small and medium-sized enterprises, if they do not lend to the private sector, they will wait for death. If they want to borrow money from the private sector, though they can linger on and wait for a turn, the breakage of the capital chain is also a matter of time.

Because your profit margin is far behind the high interest required to repay.

In fact, let's take a step back and think that for small and medium-sized enterprises, even if they can get loans from banks, we may as well take a look at the actual situation of enterprises.

Li Zibin, President of the association of small and medium enterprises of China, said: to solve the financing difficulties of SMEs, banks can not rely solely on banks. The size of small and medium-sized enterprises is different, the formats are different, and the development stage is different. It is not reasonable to rely solely on banks to solve the financing problem.

Internationally, bank loans account for only about 30% of the total social investment, while Chinese enterprises have too few financing channels. They are all squeezed to the bank door. Limited funds can not meet the needs of social investment. We should vigorously develop bond market, property rights trading market, private equity fund, equity financing and so on.

It is the most direct and effective policy to crack down on the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises, increase the income of residents, and reduce taxes for small businesses.

Li Zibin said that the government should implement differential tax policy preferences for small, micro enterprises and growing high-tech enterprises.

The form of discount should also be diversified, such as direct reduction, tax reduction, accelerated depreciation, equipment investment credit, relaxation of fees and so on.

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All people fry money

As the state controls inflation and liquidity continues to tighten, some enterprises are unable to get bank loans because of their declining profitability, so they can only borrow money from the private sector, while others use the credit funds of banks to directly lend to the public so as to make up for the lack of profits of enterprises.

All these have resulted in the unprecedented activity of private lending, and Wenzhou has entered the era of frenzied nationwide "speculation".

The interest rate of private lending has been pushed up. The monthly interest rate of 5 cents is normal, even with a monthly interest rate of 1 cents and 5. In one year, the interest rate is 80% higher than that of the money.

Such a high interest rate, manufacturing enterprises can not afford to support, the only way out of the capital is high return high risk real estate and gambling industry.

And these speeds up the fragmentation of the capital chain of enterprises, and the only option is running.

Where does the money for private lending come from?

Wenzhou's private capital itself is very active. According to the estimation of relevant authoritative departments, Wenzhou's private capital exceeds 600 billion, while the scale of private lending is around 1/6 of the total amount of private capital, which is equivalent to 1/5 of the total bank loans of Wenzhou.

The main source of funds is idle funds of private enterprises and ordinary families.

Of these funds, only 35% of the total production and operation accounted for 20%, accounting for 20% of real estate, and the scale of funds remaining in the private lending market was as high as 40% ($44 billion).

Where are these active funds coming from under the big tightening of bank credit funds?

For example, various financial products of commercial banks and trust products issued by trust companies become disguised usurious products. State holding enterprises generally use capital advantage as credit broker.

According to the CBRC data, over the past year, the off balance sheet assets of banks have skyrocketed, with only one financial product, and the scale has reached 8 trillion and 500 billion yuan in the first half of this year.

On the return rate, the rate of return on bank financial products is often 5% - 8%, while the annual interest rate of trust products is increased by 50%, breaking through 20%.

Such a high interest rate can only cover the financial cost of private lending market.

In addition, some large state-owned enterprises, including the Ministry of railways, generally set up financial companies under the leadership of the Ministry of railways.

Under the background of soaring private lending rates this year, some state-owned enterprises have poured money into private lending pools in various ways.

In such a frenzy of "stir up money" craze, individuals, manufacturing enterprises, financing Guarantee Corporation, microfinance companies, pawnshops, consignment industry, various investment companies, Real Estate Company, banks and so on constitute the chain of interests of the whole private lending.

And each interest chain is not independent, and each interest chain has formed some interest interlacing.

Any link will cause the whole interest chain to fall apart, and the whole private lending situation will gradually collapse.