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Soochow Futures: PTA Disputes Are Still Increasing.

2012/2/29 10:29:00 12

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Tuesday, PTA futures lighten up.

The main contract TA1205 opened at 9040, opened 12 points low, and the early trading in the vicinity of 9040 was narrowly concussion. In the afternoon, the market was driven by the market as a whole, and pulled up rapidly to 9088, up 34 at the closing point and closed at 9086, and the positions were reduced by 31 thousand to 350 thousand hands, with a turnover of 48 (-38) million.

From the post office position, TA1205 contract Yongan more

reduce one's position size

6617 hands to 19557 hands, Guo Lian futures empty single warehouse increase 316 to 19578 hands.

From the perspective of the position structure, the first 20 positions are 7694 (+4596).

The main reason for the reduction is clear.

In February 27th, the PTA registered warehouse receipt was 3945, an increase of 179 pieces, with an effective forecast of 400 pieces, totaling 4345 pieces (21 thousand and 700 tons PTA).

In terms of international oil prices, the profit of light oil futures delivered by the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in April fell by 2.01 US dollars or 1.9% to 106.55 dollars per barrel in February 28th. The price of the Brent crude oil futures contract of the London ICE exchange fell 2.62 US dollars or 1.79% to 121.55 us dollars / barrel in April.

Upstream market

The price of naphtha is 1086 (+7) US dollars / ton CFR Japan, MX spot price is 1391 (-10) USD / ton FOB Korea, Asia PX spot price is 1634 (-15) USD / ton FOB Korea, 1659 (-15) USD / ton CFR China, PTA dynamic guaranteed price is 9240 yuan / ton.

The profit margin of PX theory is US $275 / ton.

PTA spot market

Ups and downs

Mutual occurrence.

The spot price of PTA in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 8980 yuan (-40) yuan / ton, and the price of Taiwan's PTA produced in the outer market is 1195 (+3) dollars / ton, which is equivalent to RMB 9452 yuan / ton.

Polyester products market in the downstream market is weak, and local factory quotations have been reduced by one to two hundred.

Jiangsu and Zhejiang mainstream factory polyester production and sales have dropped, an average of 6-8, some factories have low price big single deal, higher flat, lower 5-7 percent.

In the terminal market, the total volume of China Textile City in February 28th was 355 (-5) million meters, and the filament fabric was 3 million 70 thousand meters, and the short fiber cloth was 480 thousand meters, of which cotton cloth was 130 thousand meters, TC cloth was about 70 thousand meters, TR cloth 100 thousand meters, and cotton 160 thousand meters.

The technology side broke through the 20 day moving average.

Summary: Tuesday PTA futures shrank again after the shock.

It is mainly driven by the strong atmosphere of the whole market.

From the past 20 seats structure, the bulls will be more willing to reduce their positions.

The September contract was significantly stronger, narrowing to 26 points compared to the May price discount.

In the short term, with the gradual pfer of funds, the price will rise in September.

The macro market focus shifts to the second round of the ECB.

financing

Operation (LTRO).

Under the expectation of releasing liquidity, global stock market and commodity trend are strong.

PTA industry is still in the contradiction between strong cost support and weak demand.

Terminal textile demand started slowly.

Tuesday PTA polyester polyester production and sales rate down again, the local market polyester filament filament price reduction obviously, polyester factory to inventory is still not completed.

PTA spot price is weak and volatile.

The following two issues should be concerned.

First, whether polyester polyester plant inventory will continue to decline.

Second, the main reason for the strong PX price of upstream raw materials is the market's concern over the tight supply of PX.

The high price of PX has already made the PTA producers in Japan and South Korea in a state of obvious deficit. In the 3-4 month, the capacity of the PTA plant in South Korea and Taiwan was larger, and some PTA devices were also being overhauled in mainland China.

Pay attention to the influence of PX market.

Short term oil prices went home to intensify intraday shocks.