Sunshine Hasn't Warmed Traditional Export Enterprises

In the near future, the macro and strategic teams of the State Securities Research Institute will conduct a multi-dimensional investigation on the local economy of Jiangsu province and will publish them in a series of short forms. Judging from the situation of a large export enterprise in Jiangsu, the US and European economic expectations have recovered, but have not yet been transmitted. Traditional export Enterprise.

First, the overall feeling is very difficult.

At present, there are many problems in Europe and America. (we ask the current financial market is not so pessimistic about the US and Europe). It is not so fast to reflect the entity, and it is all drinking poison and quench thirst. Relying on QE and printed tickets, the recovery will not last.

We are still appreciating. Last year, the export volume of US $1 billion 800 million was 18 million, and the exchange rate was 1. Now RMB is 6.29.

Two, from the perspective of export, there is no doubt about the decline.

This year's export target is set at 5%, and there is room for catching up. (Note: last year's export growth was 20%). But this is not practical. If you like to survey a data, we still focus on profit. This year is no less difficult than 2008.

The government also has support measures, the provincial government chamber of Commerce issued a 15 article, in terms of trade facilitation launched some measures.

Three, are there any new and positive changes in the short term? Because the arrival and delivery times are not balanced, for example, the import of complete sets of equipment will be divided into several time points in one year, and there will be no new changes in the short term.

In January, the export volume of the whole province (Jiangsu province) dropped considerably. Group growth is still OK, but all are pre orders, with more shipments in January, small orders and short orders.

Four. What is the status of the export of specific products? In terms of trade types, the export of textile and clothing is general. Orders for shipbuilding are mainly in hand orders, and orders in 2012-2013 years are few. Electronics are relatively good.

　　 Export of textile products The big road goods (cheap goods) will not work. The competition of the developing countries in the neighboring countries is fierce. We still have the advantage of high-end.

In Suzhou Wuxi Changzhou, our productive enterprises no longer expand, labor costs rise, dividends are used up, and productive enterprises go to northern Jiangsu and Suzhong to see the conditions and see the situation. Now there are garment factories in Jiangdu and Guanyun. The factories are not good enough, and the supply chain is compressed.

Mechanical and electrical products are better and manufacturing industry is improving.

PV exports are not ideal, EU subsidies are shrinking, Spain and Italy have contracted in the last few years, and German government subsidies have been increasing in 10 years. The threshold of non subsidy has been reduced to 1GW. The provincial people's Congress has proposed domestic photovoltaic applications to reduce the cost per kilowatt hour.

Shipping export is still good this year. New orders will not be much more than before. There were more orders in Europe than before. Now we rely on the development of emerging markets, and we have done bulk carriers, container ships and tugboats. Recently, we have exported two (80 thousand) ton bulk carriers.

Five, the future direction: the profits from import contributions will rise, and the difficulty of developing new markets will be great.

On the whole, foreign trade last year amounted to 2 billion 610 million US dollars, exports 1 billion 800 million, and import business accounted for 30%. Now the benefits of expanding imports have gradually increased, mainly in commodities, but there are also risks. How to connect internal and external needs?

rising market Theoretically, it can expand, and in fact there are difficulties, which are restricted by the overall trade environment.

Now Africa's trade must be confirmed by European banks. African banks can't believe that there are export credit insurance companies, or they dare not do so.