The Deposit Reserve Ratio Will Be Reduced By &Nbsp, And The Market Turnover Character Will Be Changed.

　　 People's Bank of China On the 18 day, it decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from February 24th. After adjustment, the deposit reserve ratio of domestic large financial institutions is 20.5%, and that of small and medium-sized financial institutions is 17%.

Many experts said that the reduction was mainly based on factors such as the difficulties in financing the real economy and the decline in foreign exchange holdings, which did not mean that the tone of monetary policy was relaxed. The liquidity of the future market will still face three major variables, such as the European debt crisis, domestic real estate macro regulation and local financing platform.

The direction of monetary policy remains unchanged.

Xia Bin, member of the monetary policy committee of the people's Bank of China and counselor of the State Council, said, "we do not think that the direction of sound monetary policy will change this year". Deposit reserve ratio A reduction of 0.5 percentage points is only based on prudent monetary policy intent to ensure a reasonable supply of money. The reason for the specific operation may be based on the slowdown in the growth of foreign exchange reserves, perhaps the modest fine-tuning of the previous stage of money supply, or the presetting of future policies based on the current situation of both countries. Lowering the reserve requirement does not mean that monetary policy is loosened. It merely releases money in the cage to meet the needs of normal economic activities.

He stressed that the basic situation of prudent monetary policy will not change, nor will it change. A prudent monetary policy must ensure that the real economy of the state will maintain a normal growth rate of about 8% a year, while also inhibiting the emergence of asset bubbles. Although China's economic growth in 2012 will be reduced from the high growth rate of the past two digits, the government will not adopt a loose monetary policy or stimulus policy in 2009.

Zuo Xiaolei, chief adviser to Galaxy Securities, also said that the reduction rate should be to meet the demand for money in the first quarter, which is a normal money supply for the needs of the real economy. It does not mean that the whole year's monetary policy will shift to a loose monetary policy direction. If the economy maintains a growth rate of 8% to 9% and the inflation level stays between 3.5% and 4%, even if the annual M2 growth rate is not at 14%-15%, it will be stable. Money supply is related to demand, and the policy orientation should be judged by the annual M2 growth rate.

Zuo Xiaolei believes that "the recent outflow of foreign exchange is relatively large, foreign exchange has not been growing so fast in the past, plus bank credit growth in the first quarter is generally faster, at this time the deposit rate is mainly for currency." In general, the demand for credit and investment in February and March is relatively large, and the central bank is putting more money in order to meet these needs.

Ease the financing difficulties of small and micro enterprises

The central bank recently issued the implementation report of China's monetary policy in the fourth quarter of 2011, saying that China will adjust the monetary policy in a timely and appropriate manner, and make clear that this year we should combine various monetary policy tools comprehensively, improve the macro Prudential policy framework, further optimize the credit structure on the basis of a moderate amount, adjust the supply of money and credit, and maintain a reasonable scale of social financing. Many experts pointed out that monetary policy in 2012 will support the development of the real economy, the financing of small and medium enterprises, and the construction of affordable housing.

Li Daokui, chairman of the monetary policy committee of the people's Bank of China and director of the China and world economic research center of Tsinghua University, said that the deposit reserve ratio has been lowered, and the macro policy adjustment process has been extended to solve the financing problems of the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises. However, the supervision of relevant departments will be enhanced to prevent funds from entering the non entity economy.

Li Daokui pointed out that China's macroeconomic policy this year will be adjusted by supporting the steady growth of the entities. "In other words, last year, we might focus on price regulation, and this year's price factor is no longer as heavy as it was last year. The primary objective of this year is to stabilize the real economy, so liquidity needs to be properly fine-tuning. At present, liquidity is relatively tight. If the situation of small and micro enterprises' loans is still not effectively alleviated, it is necessary to adjust the future monetary policy accordingly.

Liu Yuanchun, vice president of School of economics, Renmin University of China believes that China's deposit reserve ratio has been relatively high recently, and the important content of the policy adjustment is to support the smooth operation of the real economy. Specifically, the protection of housing construction, the "12th Five-Year plan" of farmland water conservancy construction, infrastructure construction, strategic emerging industries need capital, if too tight funds will lead to "12th Five-Year plan" to carry out difficulties. In addition, at present, the overall environment of foreign trade is unfavorable. Under such a background, the real economy needs to run smoothly, and more capital support is needed. "Since last December, China's M0 and M1 have callbacks, and the funds for the future real economy may become tighter and tighter."

There are still variables in the mobile character Bureau.

Many experts pointed out that there are still large variables in the direction of monetary policy in the second half of this year and in the future. There are still many uncertainties at home and abroad.

Li Daokui pointed out that, as far as the international situation is concerned, it mainly depends on the progress of solving the European debt crisis, and the European debt problem is still optimistic from now on. "It's better than everyone thought before. The first and a half months of the international capital market is still very good. It should be the best start in the past few years."

As far as the domestic situation is concerned, the current situation of real estate trade continues to decline. Some real estate development enterprises "boil" to the new financial year in 2012, but at the end of February, they will be faced with repayment problems such as loans and trusts. If the housing enterprises can not repay the funds normally, the capital chain will have big problems. "Housing companies can not repay loans, and loans are closely related to banks, when housing prices and commercial banks will be affected."

Liu Yuanchun said that if the overall economic situation fell further in the second half of the year, the probability of further easing of monetary policy would increase. For the time being, monetary policy In a relatively neutral position, fiscal policy is "loose and tight before", which is a reasonable and appropriate policy orientation.

He believes that there are several factors that affect the direction of monetary policy and the mobile character Bureau: the international debt crisis is now in a new round of breathing, but this relatively stable period does not mean that the European debt problem is solved. The Federal Reserve is also in a wait-and-see state. The major adjustment of global monetary policy is unlikely. The external environment has eased the pressure on China's domestic monetary policy.

The domestic side is facing the following variables: first, the biggest pressure comes from real estate. If the real estate regulation causes the real economy to fall sharply, it may lead to the change of monetary policy. Second, the export situation. At present, the export situation is not as pessimistic as it may be, but future uncertainties still exist, such as whether there will be a second round of Greek debt crisis, whether Italy's debt problem will deteriorate and whether the US economy will continue to rebound. Third, the status of local financing platform. With the debt maturity of the local government investment and financing platform, the financial strain will further intensify. Fourth, will the impact of food prices on CPI level be alleviated by price reform and the reform of income distribution? Although the price level rebounded in January, prices were still falling through the elimination of the Spring Festival. However, it is unlikely that the price level will fall to 2%, and there is still some uncertainty.