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Instability In India'S Export Policy Puts Pressure On Cotton Prices

2012/3/8 9:41:00 19

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Cotton Futures Price Collection And Storage

[market review]

ICE futures contract May opened 91.40 (cents / pound, the same below), the highest price 91.54, the lowest price 89.75, closing price 90.03, settlement price 90.12, fell 130 points, turnover 22378 hands, reduce 10998 hands.

On the same day, we registered 112305 packages, an increase of 38 packages, and 1024 packages to be tested.

In March 7th, Zheng cotton jumped into the air and opened lower. The reduction in the trading volume weakened the consolidation of stocks and completely swallowed up the increase stimulated by the cotton export ban of India the day before yesterday.

CF1205 contract settlement price of 20985 yuan, down 285 yuan; CF1209 settlement price 2172, fell 35 yuan; the total market turnover of 241192 hands, compared with the previous trading day increased 126828 hands, accumulative position 459638 hands, increase 24766 hands.

[fundamental analysis]

India is already the largest power source of China's cotton imports.

From September 2011 to January 2012, China imported 2 million 20 thousand tons of cotton, of which 810 thousand tons of cotton were imported from India, accounting for 40% of imports.

U.S.A

11%.

The India cotton port quotation at the early stage is below 17000 yuan, far lower than that of the United States cotton, which is lower than the domestic cotton price, and is the main factor to suppress cotton price.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China's cotton production last year was 6 million 600 thousand tons. At present, 2 million 700 thousand tons have been imported into the national warehouse through the purchase and storage. By the end of March 31st, it is expected to lock 3 million tons of stock.

Resources

It accounts for 45% of domestic cotton output.

In terms of imports, the number of imported cotton actually amounted to 2 million 20 thousand tons in January this year.

If we calculate the total import volume of 3 million tons this year, the actual cotton supply in the domestic market will be 6 million 600 thousand tons in the following year without the state dumping.

Our country

Spin

The annual cotton consumption is 10 million tons, and the textile demand has been significantly suppressed by the European debt crisis. If the annual consumption of 8 million tons is calculated, domestic cotton supply will still be tight this year.

The main port price of imported cotton fell slightly, and most varieties fell less than 1 cents.

At present, the market's reflection on India cotton export ban has tended to be rational. It is understood that when the India cotton export contract was signed by the textile factory, India cotton export policy adjustment was well prepared. At the moment, the textile factory orders did not show a marked improvement, so the future cotton price trend depends on the recovery of demand.

[technical analysis and outlook]

In March 7th, ICE futures were in a weak position all day. In May, the contract fell even below 90 cents, eventually dropping more than 100 points.

India or allow exports already signed

Order

Shipment is made, but confirmed by the Ministry of agriculture of India.

The uncertainty of India's export policy will make the future trend of the market confusing. At present, investors' attention will turn to the supply and demand report of USDA3 month, and the price will not be too risky at the moment of 90 cents.

India may revisit the export ban on the 9 day, resulting in a reduction in the price of the cotton market.

The 1209 contract closed at 21625 yuan per ton, down 410 yuan from yesterday's settlement price, or 1.86%.

India fined the export ban and allowed the export of registered cotton to bring pressure to the market. However, the possibility of overthrowing the previous ban should be low. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain a low price strategy.

Zheng cotton 1209 contract has been callback to the vicinity of the 60 day moving average, investors can rely on the average line to do more, and break the 60 day average line stop.