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The NPC Session Is Now Closed &Nbsp; How Will The Market Be Interpreted After The "Two Sessions"?

2012/3/14 11:03:00 9

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With the end of the "two sessions", the A stock market this year will finally come to an end.

Judging from the trend of the 7 trading days since March 5th, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market indexes have all shown a trend of first suppression and then Yang. The overall trend of the two cities' stock index has been stable. The trend of the Shanghai stock index has dropped slightly and the trend of a slight rise has also made investors worry about the subsequent trend of the A shares. How will this year's A share market be interpreted after the "two sessions"?

From the perspective of historical statistics, 14 years since 1998

"Two sessions"

During the period, the index fell 5 or 9, and the probability of index rise was higher.

Even in the week after the closing of the "two sessions", the record in 14 years is similar, with a 5 drop and 9 rise.

Judging from the trend of this year's stock index, the trend of the first two years after the "two sessions" has made the trend of the stock market after the "two sessions" once been favored by many market participants.

Will the actual deduction of the market match this?

Transition from first to backward

Judging from recent market liquidity, the situation may not be so optimistic.

According to the data of Topview, 7 trading days since March 5th, the total net outflow of the two cities of Shanghai and Shenzhen has reached more than 23 billion 77 million yuan. Except for the two plates of brokers and wine making food, the rest of the plates are all net outflows. The main flow of funds is banks, machinery, chemical chemical fiber, real estate, non-ferrous metals and so on.

However, it is worth noting that the actual net outflow of the most outflowing bank sector is only 2 billion 150 million yuan, which accounts for only 0.04% of the total market value of bank shares.

Galaxy Securities

Qin Xiaobin, chief strategist, believes that in the absence of a significant improvement in the fundamentals, it is very meaningful for the government to have a clear understanding of the current economic situation and the prospect of future work priorities for the future direction of the capital market.

In view of the current policy attitude and the actual effect of preset fine-tuning, we tend to think that the policy level is more than the stock market.

At the end of last year, the Central Committee put the growth guarantee first, and the decision-making layer continued to emphasize "timely and appropriate pre adjustment fine adjustment", which is consistent with the previous calibre.

At the same time, the reform will get back to the core of the topic before the new government takes its place.

In his report on the work of the government, Premier Wen once again proposed the specific direction and task of reform.

In the short term, at least from the perspective of liquidity, presetting fine-tuning is conducive to the early realization of the fundamentals. The stock market is a leading indicator, and the expectation of this prospect has been reflected.

In the long run, if reforms can be launched on schedule and actually push forward, China's future economic growth still has great potential and space.

At least for the time being, this optimistic expectation is gradually rising, providing a fundamental support for the stock market and a good two level market.

Or shake up in hesitation

Wang Weijun, a securities analyst at Zhejiang merchants, found that the growth rate of small and medium sized boards and gem in 2011 was 10.82% and 13.90% respectively. At present, there are 1396 listed companies in the stock market of A shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. As of March 11th, a total of 340 companies have published 2011 Annual Reports or performance bulletins, accounting for 14% of the net profit of the main board, and the net profit has increased by 15.43% over the same period of March 11th.

Wang Weijun believes that at present

Medium and small plates

The annual report risk of stocks has basically been released, and it has accumulated a small rebound in the recent market rebound. However, the current high static valuation of small cap stocks, the uncertainty of future performance, and the lifting of the restrictions on the fourth quarter growth of large cap stocks will restrict the long-term market performance of small and medium-sized stocks.

At present, the underestimation of blue chips and the gradual recognition of investors' value investment will become the main driving force for the gradual uplift of the market. However, it is not yet clear that OTC funds will flow into the stock market in large scale, and that the market will continue to be in a state of equilibrium in the short term.

A private equity fund official said that from the trend of the stock market during the "two sessions", the market has chosen the active callback. At the same time, the stock index has not fallen below the 120 day average line, which is an important "ox bear dividing line", plus a slight rebound from several trading days.

Judging from the situation of stock index trend and market volume, the probability of the index going up after the two sessions is very high.

At the same time, the relatively cautious market operation of institutional investors also makes the stock index callback space relatively limited. The market tends to rise in the hesitation of everyone, and will only see the top in the frenzy. At present, the time to see the top is yet to come.