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    Greece Is Turning &Nbsp; The European Debt Crisis Is Not Yet Ready.

    2012/3/14 10:50:00 5

    Greece'S Debt Crisis

    Greece's default appears to be too smooth - although the international exchange and Derivatives Association (ISDA) and rating agencies have been defaulted on Friday, the second round of bailout plans has already come to light this week.


    Jean-Claude Juncker, the euro group chairman, said on Monday that after the euro zone finance ministers' meeting, finance ministers have approved the second round of Greece's rescue agreement, which is expected to start early on Wednesday, euro.

    On Monday, other finance ministers also said Greece would soon get 130 billion euros in relief funds.


    Besides,

    Euro group

    Monday pressed Spain to cut its deficit GDP target by 0.5%.


    But analysts warn that investors are really worried about the "demonstration effect" of Greece's private sector debt swap (PSI) - Greece has provided a template for future defaults in other countries, especially Portugal, which has already received relief.


    Greece's second round of rescue plan is about to start.


    Juncker predicted that a successful debt swap would reduce the proportion of Greek debt to gross domestic product (GDP) to less than 117% by 2020.

    He also pointed out that after the completion of the Greek PSI, private sector creditors would not receive additional compensation.


    Juncker welcomed the IMF's confirmation of the 28 billion euro rescue fund.

    He said he expects the IMF to make greater contributions to the Greek rescue plan, which will be made later this week.


    Lagarde, President of IMF, has proposed IMF to approve the 28 billion euro loan to Greece.

    This is the first time that Lagarde has referred to IMF's contribution in the second round of bailout of Greece.

    The IMF executive board is scheduled to meet on the 15 day to discuss the details of the second round of bailout of Greece.


    At the same time, the issue of European financial firewall expansion has also attracted much attention.


    The European temporary rescue fund, the European financial stability fund (EFSF), is currently under financial pressure to pay 100 billion euros in relief funds.

    Juncker said the euro zone finance ministers will discuss the plan to enhance the ESM's financial strength at the Copenhagen conference in late March.


    On the same day, Olli Rehn, an economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner of the European Commission, also said that he had confidence in the agreement reached at the end of March to enhance the strength of the aid fund.


    Spain cut focus


    Another focus of the eurozone finance ministers conference is Spanish finance.


    This month

    EU summit

    After that, Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy announced that the deficit target of 2012 was 5.8%, which would not meet the target of 4.4% of the deficit set by the European Union in 2012. This year, the country will plan to cut its spending by 30 billion euros, even though its economy is shrinking.


    Despite the continued pressure from the euro group on the Spanish government to further reduce its budget, it eventually allowed Spain to raise its fiscal deficit to GDP ratio of 5.3% in 2012, but this proportion is still lower than the 5.8% required by the European Union.


    Juncker said after Monday's finance ministers meeting that the more important data is that Spain has agreed to reduce the deficit to GDP ratio by 3% before 2013.


    On the same day, the euro group statement said: "we discussed the financial situation of Spain.

    We realized that in 2011 Spain's budget implementation was too serious, so more efforts should be made in 2012 to stabilize the situation.

    We welcome the commitment of the Spanish government to complete the excess deficit correction before the deadline of 2013 and reduce the deficit to GDP ratio below 3%. "


    Ryan said that the slight easing of Spain's deficit goal this year was due to its high deficit level last year, reaching 8.5% of GDP, 2.5% higher than expected, and another reason for the deepening recession in Spain.


    Nevertheless, in order to achieve the goal of reducing the deficit to GDP ratio by 3% in 2013, Spain still has to make great efforts in the next 20 months, no less than the three countries in the euro area: Greece, Ireland and Portugal.


    Is Greece a default template for other countries?


    Juncker expressed optimism about the reform process in Portugal. He believed that the eurozone group was "confident" about the reform process in Portugal, and the country is on the right track.


    But market investors are not so optimistic.


    In a March 13th report, Societe Generale said: "many people are saying that the Greek PSI has provided a template for other countries to default, although future debt writedowns may be carried out in very different ways.

    Some other sovereign states are expressing envy, jealousy and hatred towards the outcome of Greece.

    Therefore, Greece's successful completion of PSI and triggering of CDS credit events have strengthened investors' long-term fears.


    And the most worrying of these "envy, jealousy, hate" countries is

    Portugal

    Now.


    Morgan, economist at Morgan Keegan, said in March 12th: "although the risk has been significantly reduced, this is not the end of the sovereign debt of Europe" (Keegan Ratajczak).

    Over the past two weeks, the yield of Portugal's 10 - year treasury bonds has risen by more than 2 percentage points.

    At such a yield level, Portuguese debt is obviously unable to refinance under existing schemes.

    Portugal may be the next problem. "


    Some analysts told the first Financial Daily reporters that euro zone leaders generally stressed that Greece's PSI was a "special case", and they agreed that future debt write downs would not be carried out in the same way.

    But it is worth noting that so far no decision maker has publicly expressed the possibility of excluding other sovereign states from debt restructuring.


    Although the balance of tradable bonds between Ireland and Portugal is not very high compared to Greece, which is 80 billion euros and 103 billion euros respectively, the problem is how to build an effective firewall in the whole euro area and how to restore confidence in the entire sovereign debt financing market.

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