Home >

Commerce Department: This Year Will Still Be A Favorable Balance Of Trade.

2012/3/16 14:13:00 23

In March 15th,

Ministry of Commerce

Press spokesman Shen Danyang said there was also a deficit in the first two months of last year. This is a special case that our country may have more goods and less exports in the first quarter of import and export.

So our judgment is that the trade deficit is unlikely to continue.

Overall, this year will still be a favorable balance of trade this year, but the surplus will gradually decrease, and the share of GDP will be further reduced.

China's import and export trade will be further balanced.

For the record of China's trade deficit in the past ten years in the month of February that year, Shen Danyang said that the emergence of the trade deficit is multifactorial. It is related to the good operation of the domestic economy, the enhancement of enterprise confidence and the active expansion of the import supplementary inventory. In recent years, the government has been actively promoting trade balance, and some policies and measures have also been promulgated.

"But the most important factor is seasonal factors."

Shen Danyang said that before and after the Spring Festival, China's foreign trade tends to be characterized by "going out before the festival and catching up with imports after the holidays".

The arrival of imports after the Spring Festival is relatively concentrated and active. With the influence of the Spring Festival holiday in February last year, the import base is low, so the import growth rate is relatively high in February this year.

Customs head office

Statistics released recently showed that the trade deficit in the month of February was as high as 31 billion 490 million US dollars, creating a record of China's single month trade deficit in the past ten years. Such a huge single month trade deficit naturally attracted wide attention from all sectors of the market.

Experts generally believe that the revival of domestic demand has led to the rapid growth of imports, while the external demand, especially the European market recovery, is still showing no signs of warming. Coupled with the special effects of the Spring Festival, it has resulted in a high monthly deficit in February.

Data show that in February, the total value of China's imports and exports was 260 billion 430 million US dollars, an increase of 29.4%.

Of which, exports of US $114 billion 470 million, an increase of 18.4%, and imports of US $145 billion 960 million, an increase of 39.6%.

The report recently released by China Merchants Bank (600036, stock bar) shows that, due to the presence of the wrong factors in the Spring Festival, the changes in the data in the month of 1 and February will not reflect the actual situation of import and export.

Through the above cumulative year-on-year data and the ring data, exports in February are in fact substantially declining, and the value of exports is close to the level of November 2008, the lowest level in the past two years.

The cumulative growth rate of imports is at a historic low, but at least the growth rate of the ring has risen sharply.

Therefore, when domestic demand is more stable relative to external demand, it will inevitably lead to the steady convergence of surplus scale and even the emergence of deficit.

Shen Danyang said that the cumulative deficit in 1 and February is still deficit, but the deficit is only 4 billion 250 million US dollars, which is similar to the situation in the first two months of last year.

Overall, this year will still be a favorable balance of trade.

At the same time, China's February official and HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has been warming for third months. Official data reached a 5 month high of 51, up 0.5 percentage points from last month; the HSBC index reached a 4 month high of 49.6, of which new export order index, backlog order index, purchase price index rose by more than 4 percentage points.

Analysts believe that this also indicates the coming months.

Export situation

Hopefully, it will be warmer.

But inevitably, experts say that this year's trade deficit is expected to increase, and the deficit will also increase in the month of deficit.

Affected by this, the two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will become more prominent this year.

Considering that the growth rate and exchange rate fluctuation of other emerging market economies may further intensify this year, the contagion effect in the financial market will further increase the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate.

Finally, Shen Danyang said that the next step is to further take policy measures to maintain the basic stability of foreign trade.

"Because the data of two months in 1 and February can not explain the trend of foreign trade throughout the whole year. There are many uncertainties and uncertainties. There are many variables in the external environment and internal environment. We will continue to maintain the basic stability of our foreign trade policy according to the requirements of the government's work report."

Shen Danyang said.