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Economic Dialogue Between China And The World

2012/3/19 14:14:00 22

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After the national "two sessions" just passed, people who are concerned about China and the world economy once again turn their eyes to a venue: the "China Development Summit Forum 2012 economic summit" hosted by the State Council Development Research Center and the China Development Research Foundation, opened today at the Diaoyutai State Guest House in Beijing.

The theme of this forum is "China and the world: macroeconomic and structural adjustment".

Nearly 1000 representatives from the political, academic and business circles at home and abroad attended the main forum and the 15 group meeting of the economic summit.

Development Research Centre of the State Council

Liu He, deputy secretary of the CPC Central Committee and deputy director of the central financial and economic leading group's office, delivered a keynote speech.

On the development trend of China's future economy, Liu He said, first of all, there will be new characteristics of industrialization, and the contribution space and elasticity of human capital and technological innovation to economic growth are all increasing.

Secondly, urbanization is still the main feature of China's important economic development in the future.

Thirdly, China will continue to implement the basic state policy of opening to the outside world, but the content of internationalization will change greatly. The main clue is that the balance of payments will gradually move towards a basic balance, which will be compatible with China's decision making changes in the global economy.

Finally, China's marketization process will continue, and the future reform will accelerate.

"Reform should be deepened according to the principle of combining value orientation with problem orientation.

The so-called value orientation is to adhere to the basic values of the socialist market economy, adhere to the protection of property rights, insist on encouraging competition, adhere to the unity of fairness and efficiency, and persist in achieving the common prosperity of all the people.

The so-called problem orientation is to solve some outstanding institutional contradictions and problems in a targeted and orderly way, especially the outstanding contradictions and problems existing in finance, taxation, finance and prices.

Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of statistics, said in his speech that China's economy has been slowing down since last year, thanks to the influence of the international economic environment, the active regulation of the state and the influence of some deep-seated factors. This trend has basically continued in January and February this year.

Against this background, first, the fundamental factors that have driven China's rapid development and rapid growth in recent decades have not changed. These basic factors are urbanization, industrialization, marketization and internationalization.

Second, the restrictive factors restricting China's rapid economic growth are increasing.

The first is the weakening of the strength of labor resources. In 2011, the share of labor resources in China's total population declined for the first time.

"The labor force as a factor of production is decreasing, and the aging population that needs to bear is increasing. It can not affect the future of China's economy."

Secondly, the constraints of resources and environment have become increasingly prominent. Behind the rapid growth of China's economy is a strong consumption of energy resources. From the perspective of resources and environment, the constraints of China's rapid growth are increasing from the perspective of resource and environment supply.

Therefore, the Chinese economy should speed up the process of pformation and structural adjustment, and promote the steady and rapid development of China's economy.

Han Jun, deputy director of the development research center of the State Council, delivered a speech entitled "urbanization and floating population in China" in the "dialogue city leaders: China's urbanization and structural adjustment" forum, expounded the important role, important tasks and outstanding problems of promoting urbanization in China, and analyzed the important significance of the integration of hundreds of millions of migrant workers into the city.

In "looking back"

12th Five-Year "

Wu Jinglian, a researcher at the development research center of the State Council, said that the obstacles to the economic system had not been eliminated, and the fundamental way out of the economic barriers was to carry out market-oriented reforms, especially the top-level design of the reform.

In order to deepen discussions between Chinese and foreign representatives on related issues, the economic summit set up several parallel discussion groups, including the "fog of the European economy", "hard landing of China's economy: impossible or inevitable", "macroeconomic management to promote growth", "developing multi-level financial markets", "service industry development and opening to the outside world" and other topics.

Reporters walked through the various sessions of the discussion group, deeply aware of the deep concern, heated discussion and fierce confrontation in the chilly chilly trend towards the world economy.

After the first unit of the day, the organizers held 15 sub forums and Chinese food speeches and dinner speeches, all around the hot topics of China's economy and the global economic situation.

Stanford University Professor

Michael Boskin, former chairman of the US economic advisers Committee, said there are downside risks in the world's major economies, and some problems are not easy to solve, especially in Europe's sovereign debt problem.

But at the end of the day he was more cautiously optimistic, "I am more confident of how to recover from a prolonged recession".

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However, Stephen Hroch, Professor of Yale University and Morgan Stanley (Asia)'s non-executive chairman, criticized: "when it comes to global rebalancing, the world is becoming more and more unbalanced, especially in the past 30 years.

The United States, Europe, Japan are all the same in China.

70% of global consumption occurs in developed countries, but will not continue to grow.

For China's economy to rely on external demand pull, it is time to wake up, and now we need to do rebalancing work. "

At the same time, Roach said: "China's economy will never land hard."

As a climate expert, Nicholas Stern, a professor at London School of Economics and Political Science in England, reminds China that China should accelerate the development of low-carbon economy, which may lead to the new industrial revolution.

Qian Yingyi, Dean of the school of economics and management of Tsinghua University, said that when the Chinese economy adjusted in the first year of 12th Five-Year, the relationship between the government and the enterprises, residents and the market had not been fundamentally adjusted, but more distorted.

Such as low consumption and high savings, the main reason is not the high savings of residents or consumers, but because the government's savings are high; the high investment is also caused by the investment behavior of the government or state-owned enterprises.

Zheng Yongnian, director of the Institute of East Asian Studies of National University of Singapore, responded that China should implement the "bird cage economy" for state-owned enterprises and move state-owned enterprises to the cage. That is the reform of state-owned enterprises designed by Premier Zhu Rongji in 90s of last century, and the state-owned enterprises are more concentrated in strategic industries.

Although not in the same session, parallel to the "growth promoting macroeconomic management" group, Peking University Guanghua School of Management professor Zhang Weiying's views are bold and sharp.

In his speech, he expressed the hope that the proportion of state-owned enterprises should account for about 10% in 5 to 10 years.

He said that the real macroeconomic management should be to create a good institutional environment.

"Under this institutional environment, everyone has the initiative to work hard and work hard. They are motivated to innovate, entrepreneurship can be effectively played, and resources can flow to the most efficient departments.

In this sense, the last macroeconomic policy is not a government spending policy, but a policy that the government should spend as little as possible. "

Professor, School of economics and management, Tsinghua University

Li Daokui's attention is focused on the financial sector.

He pointed out that China's commercial banks already have the conditions for the reform of interest rate marketization. Commercial banks have reached the point where they must be reformed, and asset securitization should be promoted.

In the afternoon of the "multi-level financial market" group meeting, Li Jiange, vice chairman of the Central Huijin and Fu Yuning, chairman of China Merchants Group, participated in the seminar.

Gao Xiqing, vice chairman and general manager of China Investment Corporation, said that China's financial system is not that bad and should not be completely copied from the West.

In the link of "service industry development and opening up" chaired by Xiaojuan, deputy secretary of the State Council, the report of the Ministry of Foreign Economic Research of the State Council Development Research Center is concise and clear: "two observations and one view."

The first observation is that China's trade in services has maintained rapid development. The second observation is that the structure of China's service trade is changing rapidly. One view is that China needs further opening up to enhance its international competitiveness.

Hou Yunchun, deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center, chaired the "international energy market near mid term outlook" group, which discussed nuclear safety and nuclear power development planning. The four guests, including deputy director of the CPPCC Economic Committee, Zhang Guobao, former director of the National Energy Bureau, and Feng Fei, Minister of industry and Economic Research of the State Council Development Research Center, participated in the above discussions.

The group forum "the plight and the turning point of the real estate market", the deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, Ba Shu song, said that the real estate financial products will have obvious rapid development in 2012, and the types of developers will diversify. The real estate financial capability has become a core competitiveness of the real estate industry competition, and 2012 is the year when the real estate finance starts.

The "new technology development and green growth" forum is chaired by Lv Wei, Minister of technology and Economic Research of the State Council Development Research Center. Representatives from four business circles participated in the topic of "innovation - the core competitiveness of enterprises".

Yang Limin, deputy director of the office of the central financial and economic leadership group, chaired the "international comparison of China's economic and social development" unit. Chen Qingtai, vice chairman of the China Development Research Foundation and Secretary of the former party secretary of the State Council Development Research Center, chaired the unit of "enterprise strategy and cooperation in crisis".