US Clothing Brand Gap Is Expected To Benefit From A Bumper Crop Of Cotton.
U.S.A
The Ministry of agriculture predicts that, in the year ending July, farmers will harvest 123 million 600 thousand bales of cotton (480 pounds), a 15 million increase in demand, an increase of 32% in inventory and a second largest stock in history.
According to the median figure predicted by 15 analysts compiled by Peng Bo, cotton in New York period fell by 3% this year, and it will drop 16% to 75 cents / pound by December 31st.
Because
China
Pakistan and the cold weather and floods, crops destroyed, so a year ago, the price rose to 2.197 U.S. dollars, the United States since the end of the South American war more than a century ago, the new high.
Global farmers expand their cotton growing area. The International Cotton Advisory Committee in Washington is expected to increase by 12% next year.
Gap, the largest clothing chain in the US, told investors in February that the company expects to lower its cost in the second half of this year.
Abercrombie&Fitch (ANF), which runs its namesake and Hollister clothing store, said in March 7th that the company would benefit from falling prices.
The International Monetary Fund has said that global economic growth is slowing and demand is weakening.
World of this year
Economics
The growth rate will increase by 3.3% in 2011 and 3.8% in 2011. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao announced in March 5th that this year's growth target is 7.5%, the lowest level since 2004.
Government data showed that Japan contracted 0.7% in the fourth quarter, while the 17 economies in the euro area shrank by 0.3%.
The US Department of agriculture predicts that China will consume 40% of the world's total.
cotton
This year, it will import 18 million 500 thousand packages, the largest import quantity in six years, an increase of 54% over the previous year.
ICAC estimates that the number of imports is increasing due to the government's acquisition of domestic cotton as a national reserve. By July, China's cotton stocks may account for 25% of global inventories.
India is the second largest cotton exporter in the world, second only to the United States. The government said that after the lifting of the ban in March 12th, new export registration is not accepted.
The country has exported about 9 million 500 thousand bales of /170 kilograms this year, exceeding the government's estimated 8 million 400 thousand bales.
After the announcement of the stop of sale by the Ministry of Commerce of India, cotton prices in New York rose by 4.5% in March 5th.
ICAD estimates that falling prices and restrictions on exports may lead to a reduction in cotton planting area in India this year. Cotton planting starts next month.
The planting area may be reduced by 6% from 12 million 190 thousand hectares (30 million 100 thousand acres) in the previous year.
Australia is the third largest in the world.
cotton
Exporting countries, Australia's agriculture, resource economics and Science Bureau predicted that production could be higher next year after floods have increased water supply.
In the 12 months since July 1st, sales could reach 1 million 75 thousand tons, up from 955000 tons a year ago.
Gap, based in San Francisco, is quite confident that the average unit cost will improve in the second half.
This year, the company's stock rose 41%, and this year's profit increased by 1.6% to $846 million.
Abercrombie&Fitch, a new Ohio based company in Albany, expects that the decline in the cost of carry over cotton will continue to benefit the company.
The company's shares rose 6.7% this year.
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