The Impact Of Domestic Macroeconomic Fluctuation On Clothing Consumption

On the 28 day, Zhang Ping, the director of the national development and Reform Commission, entrusted by the State Council and made a report to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress on the progress of the pformation of the mode of economic development, reported the 6 key tasks of the State Council to accelerate the pformation of the mode of economic development. The first is to expand domestic demand.

The 6 key tasks include: further expanding domestic demand, especially

Vigorously promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.

We must work hard to strengthen the agricultural foundation, upgrade the manufacturing level and expand the scale of the service industry, and promote the coordinated development of the three industries at a higher level.

Speed up scientific and technological progress and independent innovation.

We must stick to basic research and strategic high technology research, and cultivate the main body of enterprise innovation.

We should do our best to save energy and reduce emissions and protect the ecological environment.

Through effective market incentive mechanism to strengthen guidance, through the improvement of laws and regulations to strengthen constraints, so that energy conservation and emission reduction and ecological protection become a conscious action of the whole society.

We should further coordinate the coordinated development of urban and rural areas.

We will comprehensively implement the overall strategy for regional development and the strategy of main functional areas.

And constantly enhance the driving force of changing the mode of development.

In order to further play the fundamental role of the market in resource allocation, we should accelerate reforms in the areas of administrative examination and approval, finance, taxation, finance, price, income distribution and state-owned enterprises.

Zhang Ping said that the state has effectively responded to the impact of the international financial crisis by expanding domestic demand and enhanced the endogenous driving force and impact resistance capability of the economy.

In the first three quarters of this year, the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth reached 101%, of which the contribution rate of final consumption increased from 32.7% in the same period last year to 47.9%.

According to the introduction, in 2009 and 2010, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 15.5% and 18.3% respectively. Since the beginning of this year, market sales have maintained relatively rapid growth, and the increase in the first 11 months is 17%.

The growth rate of fixed asset investment dropped from 30% in 2009 to 24.5% in the first 11 months of this year. The growth rate of "two high" industries dropped from 21.7% to 18.6%, and the proportion of private investment increased from 48.1% to 58.9%.

Sub sectors of micro consumption

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Against this background, up to now, the Shanghai Composite Index has dropped 15 days in the 20 trading days in December.

Under such circumstances, we need to pay more attention to listed companies whose main business continues to grow.

According to the consumer goods market data released by the National Bureau of statistics in November, the total retail sales in November increased by 26.7%, 31.9% and 27.8% respectively, while the retail sales of single month increased 34.5%, 34.4% and 31.3%, respectively.

The growth rate of the three industries in November was higher than that of the first 11 months.

The total retail sales in the first 11 months of the furniture industry grew the largest year-on-year, which deserves our attention.

The corresponding listed companies in the industry are Yihua wood industry (600978) and Merck stock market (600337).

In the weak market, the valuation of stocks is generally relatively low, which is a good time for us to study stocks carefully. It is a good method to choose good value stocks for long term attention.

Traditional consumption upgrading and pformation are in danger.

In recent years, consumer stocks are hot. With the advent of the structural pformation period, the large consumption and consumption upgrading sector, as a new engine to stimulate domestic demand, is ready to go.

Shao Yu, chief strategist of Orient Securities, believes that in the downside of inflation, investors can moderate the relative benefits of the mid-range consumer shield, especially the mid-range consumer varieties in various consumer sectors, such as convenient hotels, mid-range catering, domestic red wine, mid-range brand clothing, Chinese medicine, medical devices, etc.

From the market trend in the past 4 years, food and beverage, catering and tourism as traditional consumption representatives,

For example, this year's best food and beverage industry, for example, as of Monday, the food and beverage industry fell by only 7.17%, and all sectors of A share were discounted. Compared with the 22.01% Shanghai Composite Index, the food and beverage industry has won 14.84 percentage points.

In 2008, food and beverage also won 7.41 percentage points of the Shanghai Composite Index in the same period of 57.98% decline. In 2009, although food and beverage rose only 90.05% in the middle reaches of the industry, it still outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by more than 10 percentage points. In 2010, the food and beverage industry was on the unfavorable side of the 14.31% decline in the market.

However, it is worth noting that after the continuous rise in recent years, food and beverages are also facing "embarrassment" embarrassment, the recent decline in liquor stocks, so that investors began to worry that the plate of the spring has come to an end.

According to the Statistics Department of the securities times, the P / E ratio of food and beverage increased from 28.02 times to 39.84 times between 2008 and 2010. However, with the support of this year's beautiful achievements, the P / E ratio of food and beverage returned to 2008 level or even lower.

As of Monday, the price earnings ratio of the plate is only 26.62 times.

But in the uncertain economic outlook next year, the expected decline in performance may reduce the popularity of the food and beverage industry, and its relatively high share price may be the biggest risk.

The average share price of food and beverages up to 24.68 yuan is 1.15 times higher than the level of only 11.47 yuan in 2008. This figure is equivalent to the average stock price level of the plate when the Shanghai composite index is above 3200 at the end of 2009.

In addition, catering and tourism, textile and clothing, household appliances and commercial trade are similar to food and beverage.

From the trend, food and tourism, textiles and clothing, household appliances and commercial trade in 2008 to 2010 significantly outperformed the market, including household appliances and commercial trade in 2009 to achieve more than 109% of the rise, the 4 plates also maintained a positive return in 2010.

But in recent years, food and tourism, textiles and clothing, household appliances and commercial trade have failed to win the market this year. As of Monday, the worst performing commercial trade fell by 29.29%.

From the level of P / E, the current P / E ratio of catering, tourism and textile apparel has reached 33.63 times and 22.76 times, slightly higher than that of 2008.

The price earnings ratio of household appliances and commercial trade is less than 20 times, 12.55 times and 19.71 times, respectively, compared with the level in 2008.

As for the average stock price, as of Monday, the average price of food and tourism, textiles and clothing, household appliances and commercial trade exceeded 10 yuan, which is higher than that of the 4 sectors mentioned above in 2008, ranging from only 5 yuan to 8 yuan.

The average price of 12.11 yuan in textile and garment industry is 1.41 times higher than the level of only 5.02 yuan in 2008.