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Cotton Prices Are Not Ideal &Nbsp; Market Stagnation.

2012/3/23 12:39:00 19

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"The rainy season is clearing up, and the desire for cotton yarn market is dying." the whole cotton yarn market is just like the rainy weather brought by this solar terms, giving people a kind of light sadness and loss.

Since March, the whole cotton yarn market has continued to be vulnerable to consolidation and upside down. Even if the support of the upstream cotton is still low, the downstream cotton spinning enterprises are still in poor demand, the inventory is hard to digest and the financial pressure is high.

The whole cotton yarn survives in the upper and lower streams. The following market has become the focus of attention of the market. I believe that if the continuous demand is weak and the inventory will increase, the whole cotton yarn market will not be revived for a short time.

Upstream cotton prices linger

Spring sleepy

"Is a characteristic of nature, but this feature also brings to the current upstream cotton market.

For more than a month of warm and dry state, people's expectations for cotton growth are gradually fading.

At present, with the serious stagnation of sales and the stalemate of the industrial chain, cotton has returned to a state of slight decline and consolidation.

For example, since March, China's cotton price index has dropped steadily. On the 20 day, China's cotton price index CCIndex (527) closed at 16935 yuan / ton, down 21 yuan from the beginning of the month, and CCIndex (328) reported 19564 yuan / ton, down 37 yuan from the beginning of the month.

The most prominent feature of cotton price now is the lack of support for demand. The characteristics of weak market are very obvious. Textile producers are too busy to keep up with cotton producers. Although there is support for purchasing and storing prices, it is difficult to recover the pace of cotton price reduction.

All cotton yarn "stumbling"

All cotton yarn has always been in a weak position this year, and its price is declining.

Especially during the busy season of March, the situation of cotton yarn market is worsening. The profits of manufacturers have been compressed repeatedly.

The pressure of cash flow in cotton spinning industry has reached a critical point and stock has reached its peak.

Under the influence of multiple disadvantages,

All cotton yarn quotation

We can only choose to fall.

It is understood that at present Xiaoshao market 32S combed high yarn price of 25500 yuan / ton fell 700 yuan compared with the beginning of the month, 32S combed yarn quoted price at 30500 yuan / ton fell 1000 yuan compared with the beginning of the month, 40s combed yarn price at 31000 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the month dropped 1000 yuan.

Shengze market 32S combed yarn reported 26200 yuan / ton fell 300 yuan compared with the beginning of the month, and the price of 32S combed yarn was 29800 yuan / ton, which was 500 yuan lower than the beginning of the month.

40s combed yarn quoted price of 31300 yuan / ton fell 100 yuan compared with the beginning of the month.

Production and marketing imbalance of cotton spinning industry

In terms of output, according to the latest statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in February 2012, China

Spinning output

It was 2 million 369 thousand tons, an increase of 480 thousand tons, an increase of 25.41%, an increase of 295 thousand tons, an increase of 14.22%.

In 2011 9-2012, February, China's yarn production totaled 15 million 192 thousand tons, an increase of 14.44% over the same period last year. In 2012 1-2, China's yarn production totaled 4 million 443 thousand tons, up 12.80% over the same period last year.

In addition, according to the sampling survey of the national cotton market monitoring system, as of March 8th, the average daily use of cotton in the sample enterprises was about 41.5 days (including the quantity of cotton imported to Hong Kong), an increase of 2.5 days, an increase of 7.2 days compared with that of the previous three years, an increase of 6.1 days compared with the average level of nearly three years.

According to relevant data projections, the national cotton industry inventory of about 1 million 23 thousand tons, an increase of 6.4%, an increase of 17.6% over the same period, an increase of 7.3% over the past three years.

The cotton industry stock situation is different in the main provinces of the country, and the cotton industry inventory in four provinces, such as Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian and Jiangsu, is relatively large.

From this we can see that the stock and spinning output of cotton have increased substantially compared with previous years, but sales volume is still at a loss.

At present, the stock in the cotton industry chain has been pferred from raw materials to intermediate products.

At the present stage, most cotton spinning industry's stock of cotton yarn is close to full warehouse. The problem of capital is still troubled by the actual operation of textile enterprises. The recruitment problem again appears to increase labor costs and increase the price of clothing, which impede market consumption. The increase in sales volume is difficult to conceal the subsequent shortage of consumption.

Powerful textile enterprises stand firm, and small businesses that rely on price competition gradually fall down. When cotton prices are sold by the state "bottom up" and small factories lose the advantage of purchasing low cotton prices before, the low level consumer market does not start to make small factories shut down and wait and see.

The demand for downstream cotton textile industry is so low that the difficulty of selling yarn is greatly increased.

The macro environment is still uncertain.

The uncertainty of international supply and demand pattern may increase in 2012.

Chinese textile industry

Exports may have adverse effects.

The concentrated repayment period of the European debt crisis may bring new crises to the capital market, thus weakening the endurance of the entities and weakening the euro area economy.

In addition, the US fiscal policy is not clear, once the tightening will drag the global economy into development.

In addition, there are also many factors that restrict the development of China's bad profits. For example, the cost of each sector is increasing and the real estate regulation policy is becoming more and more intense. Therefore, under the double pressure of domestic and international export, the economic pressure of cotton yarn industry is still undiminished.

Considering the various factors of the upstream and downstream markets and macro policies, I believe that if the supply chain of the whole industry chain can not be changed, then the rainbow days after the whole cotton yarn storm are still slim, and the form of sluggish consolidation will still exist for a long time.

Therefore, it is expected that all cotton yarn Market in the short term may continue early weakness continue downward.