The Research Institute Of The Ministry Of Commerce Reported That Consumption Would Be The First Driving Force This Year

In 2011, the contribution rate of "three carriages" to GDP growth was 54.2%, down 2.4 percentage points from the previous year, and exports were -5.8%, 15 percentage points lower than the previous year, and consumption was 51.6%, an increase of 17.4 percentage points over the previous year.

In 2012, this trend will continue. Compared with the steady growth of investment, the fast growth of consumption will become the first driving force for economic growth for the first time this year.

In 2012, consumption growth will remain at a faster interval, and consumption will become the first driving force for economic growth for the first time in nearly 10 years.

In March 21st, the Ministry of Commerce issued a report on the development of China's consumer market in 2012, giving the above basic judgments on the trend of the consumer market throughout the year.

The report also points out that the economic growth pattern of consumption, investment and export will be initially formed in this year's 12th Five-Year plan.

Macroeconomic policy adjustment is an important reason for the decline in consumption growth last year.

The report first analyzes the characteristics of China's consumer market in 2011, pointing out that the consumption scale of urban and rural residents continued to maintain a steady and rapid growth last year, but the total retail sales of social consumer goods grew at a slower pace.

In 2011, the total retail sales of consumer goods totaled 181266 billion yuan, up 17.1% from the nominal level, 1.2 percentage points lower than the 18.3% in 2010.

Excluding price factors, the actual growth is only 11.6%, 3.2 percentage points lower than that in 2010.

"In the past year, the potential of service consumption has not yet been fully released.

"Consumption of Research Institute of Ministry of Commerce

"Macroeconomic policy adjustment has lowered the growth rate of consumption, especially the housing market regulation policies and the expending of consumption policies, resulting in a slowdown in consumption growth.

"Zhao Ping thinks.

Huo Jianguo, President of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the slow growth of income is

In addition, high consumer prices, frequent incidents of food quality and safety and other factors also inhibited people's consumption intention.

To some extent, the lack of consumer confidence has contributed to the rapid growth of online purchasing and overseas tourism shopping, leading to the outflow of domestic consumption capacity, and the pulling effect of consumption on the national economy has not yet been fully realized.

The "three carriages" coordinated growth model will be initially formed.

According to the report, China's total consumption will remain at a relatively fast growth range in 2012, and the position of "three carriages" in the national economy will undergo significant changes. The growth pattern of consumption, investment and exports will be initially formed.

Consumption in urban and rural areas and industrial structure has changed little, consumption of daily necessities has been growing steadily and rapidly, durable consumer goods have been rising and falling, and the potential for service consumption is still relatively large.

"In 2012, the impact of uncertainties in the international political and economic situation on China's economy will be further manifested. China's domestic economic growth rate and the severe employment situation will also lead to more uncertainties in consumption growth.

However, the improvement of per capita income and the continuous expansion of consumption policy will weaken the adverse factors to a certain extent.

"Huo Jianguo said that the domestic economic growth slowed down, the grain harvest for eight consecutive years, the continuation of real estate regulation policies and the small space for the increase of bulk raw materials prices laid the foundation for stabilizing prices.

With inflation being suppressed, housing prices being effectively controlled, the consumption environment improving, and the new expanding consumption policy being introduced, China's consumer satisfaction index, expected index and confidence index will be stronger in 2012.

According to the report, the contribution rate of total capital formation to GDP growth in 2011 was 54.2%, 2.4 percentage points lower than that of last year, and the contribution rate of net exports of goods and services to GDP growth was -5.8%, 15 percentage points lower than that of last year, while the final contribution rate to GDP growth was 51.6%, an increase of 17.4 percentage points over the previous year, and consumption contribution rate was only 2.6 percentage points lower than that of investment contribution rate.

In 2012, compared with the steady growth of investment, the growth rate of faster consumption growth reached 16%-17%, still far higher than the growth rate of GDP.

The contribution rate of consumption to GDP will exceed investment and become the first driving force for economic growth for the first time in nearly 10 years.

The expansion of consumption policy can be considered in terms of tax exemption, tax rebate, interest discount and so on.

According to the report, in 2012, the growth of total consumption in China will further decelerate on the basis of the growth rate of the previous year. To achieve the dual goal of "steady growth and stable prices", we must keep the growth trend of consumption unchanged.

"The basic trend of China's expansion of consumption policy in 2012 is to maintain moderate innovation in the direction of policy support, support means and scope of support on the basis of maintaining the continuity and stability of existing consumption policies.

"Zhao Ping said.

At present, the main way to expand our consumption policy is to purchase subsidies, that is to say, when consumers buy goods, they will give relevant policy subsidies to attract consumers to buy products that are supported by policies.

Zhao Ping believes that in 2012, the new expansion of consumption policy can be considered in the tax exemption, tax rebate, interest discount and other aspects of appropriate exploration.

Adjust the scope of consumption tax and the structure of tax rate.

Moderate consumption tax on some commodities, such as automobiles, cosmetics, gold and silver jewellery, is currently being adjusted.

The report also stresses that we must pay attention to the coordination between revenue policy and expenditure policy.

We should pay close attention to the relationship between income growth and expansion of consumption, ensure the rapid growth of nominal income of residents, and the reform of income distribution system can not remain in the planning and assumption stage. We must find the breakthrough point of income distribution reform and achieve substantive breakthroughs.

At the same time, we must pay attention to the coordination between commodity market and capital market policy.

We should pay close attention to the healthy development of the capital market, promote the resumption of stock market growth, broaden the investment channels of consumers, help consumers win CPI and avoid consumers' panic over price fluctuations.