A Shares Or Brewing A Round Of Structural Investment Opportunities

Medium and small cap stocks, gem and mobile Internet sector are potential investment opportunities for A shares.

Analysis of the stock market can basically start from six aspects: capital, technology, policy, fundamentals, psychological aspects, and peripheral markets. On the whole, A shares may be brewing a structural opportunity.

The capital side is much more A shares. Under normal circumstances, capital market is the decisive factor. Monetary policy is usually the leading factor in the tightening of capital. The two most important measures in monetary policy are deposit rate and interest rate. Deposit rate, since December last year, there have been two down to deposit rate, interest rates, since October 2010, has been increased 5 times, historically speaking, the current cycle of raising is near the end, and with the downward pressure on the economy increased, the market's interest rate expectations are enhanced, interest rate is expected to enter a downward cycle. Therefore, this year's monetary policy compared with last year, relatively loose is a big probability event, in the face of strong support of funds, A shares will have some room for imagination.

Technically, it may have reached the rebound cycle. From the perspective of historical experience, the bull market in the last 8 years after the A share reform has entered the new era, for example, the market cycle is almost symmetrical (but not absolute symmetry). If the 2132 point is similar to 998 points, 1664 points and other important low points, then according to the three cow bear cycle rule before, the rising period of the new round of bull and bear cycles may have begun.

　　 Policy face rammed stock The city is a good foundation. Looking back at the A bull's 20 years' bull and bear cycle transformation, we can see that when the market starts to go crazy, the bad policy is constantly coming out, and when the market is gloomy or even desperate, the profit policy is concentrated. This time it should be no exception. The market saw a sharp downturn in the market before and after 2132 lows. At that time, Huijin first increased its holdings of state-owned banks. The SFC increased punishment, Premier Wen Jiabao encouraged the stock market, and the pension market was put on the agenda, revealing the management's care for the stock market everywhere.

Fundamentals or market stumbling blocks. The three carriages that drive China's economic growth are expected to maintain strong growth in investment, consumption and exports. The process of urbanization in China is continuing, and the gradual implementation of the policy of expanding domestic demand will effectively stimulate consumption. The ECB president said the worst stage of the euro zone debt crisis has passed, and the US economy is slowly recovering. For A shares, at present and for a long time, the fundamentals of the economy are at least not the fetters of strong market forces.

Investor psychology is showing signs of strength. Market risk is usually negatively related to investor psychology. Since the end of last year, the market is almost desperate, and the market has been in a panic since the rally of 2132 points. The irrationality of investors is the main reason for the recent surge in the market. It is just like 6000 o'clock in 2007. If everyone thinks that the market is not in suspense, and few people are mocked by objections, it shows that the market risk has been great.

Peripheral markets create a good atmosphere for A shares. In the peripheral stock market, the United States as the world's largest economy, its Dow has stood on 13000 points, a four year high, and the NASDAQ reached a 11 year high. As the third largest economy in the world, Japan's Nikkei index has also been developing rapidly. Therefore, as the second largest economic entity in the world, A shares have a good bull market atmosphere.

In view of the above six aspects, there is a possibility of structural opportunities in A shares at present, which are manifested in the following three aspects:

　 Opportunities or dominated by small and medium cap stocks

In his government work report, Premier Wen made it clear that the target of GPD growth is 7.5% this year. He also explained that the GDP growth target was slightly lower than that of the "12th Five-Year plan" goal. It is necessary to gradually link up with the "planning goals" of the year 2000, and guide all parties to focus their efforts on accelerating the transformation of the mode of economic development and effectively improving the quality and efficiency of economic development, so as to facilitate the development of a longer period, higher level and better quality. The majority of small and medium capitalization listed companies representing emerging industries will be an important force in changing the mode of economic development, and benefit from the policy tilt is self-evident, so they are more likely to be sought after by market capitalization.

From the point of view of technology, since 2132, Medium and small plates The index has appeared eight links, and the small and medium market index is obviously stronger than the main board index. It is particularly noteworthy that since the launch of the gem composite index, it has been very short on the benchmark for more than 1000 points, and the recent low point has reached 613 points. It can be said that the risk has been fully released. From the natural law "golden section", the 613 point is just around 0.618 times of the 1000 point of the GEM board.

　　 Gem is expected to take the lead.

Judging from the valuation of gem, the overall static P / E ratio of this sector is about 40 times, although it is 20% higher than that of the small and medium-sized board, but it is reasonable because of its good growth. Assuming that their overall net profit growth rate is 35%, and it can last for five years, its dynamic P / E ratio is only less than 9 times, and has great investment value. Moreover, from the initial stage of the growth enterprise market to more than 90 times earnings to 128 times the market surplus, it is clear that the current P / E ratio has shown that the risk of release is relatively full. According to the statistical data at the end of 2010, 94% of the small and medium-sized board companies will be lower than the opening price after one year of listing. After two years, the share price of the 60% companies will exceed the opening price, and three or more companies will hit a new high after three years.

From the perspective of national policies, it is an indisputable fact that policies continue to tilt towards small and micro enterprises. The Twelfth Five Year Plan for national economic and social development has clearly proposed that transformation and upgrading should be carried out to enhance the core competitiveness of the industry. Based on this, the high quality companies representing the social development trend in the gem will get significant development opportunities.

　 Obvious opportunities for mobile Internet sector

Looking back on history, we can see that the Internet wave that the US launched in 90s brought strong impetus to the US economy at that time. This year, as the second year of 12th Five-Year, economic growth will be inseparable from technological innovation, and the leaders are likely to be technological innovations related to the mobile Internet, which will benefit from the explosive growth of listed companies.

A shares of more than 2000 listed companies, although there is no "apple" category. High-tech enterprises However, if we can find out the relevant enterprises with good quality and good prospects, we will gain a lot. Careful study is not difficult to find that most of these enterprises are distributed in gem and small and medium-sized boards, because the two plates are mostly high-tech enterprises, especially gem, high-tech enterprises are more concentrated and have greater potential.

In short, A shares currently have relatively good operational opportunities, and the joint efforts of various forces will effectively open up the A stock raising channel. Although some unpredictable factors can not be excluded, these factors will only delay and prevent the arrival of structural opportunities, which is determined by the scientific characteristics of the stock market.