Textile And Apparel Industry: The Fundamentals Need To Be Improved By &Nbsp; Performance Growth Is In Line With Expectations.

Last week's market review

Textile last week clothing The plate rose by 0.38% (apparel home textiles rose 1.99%, textile production increased by -1.59%), Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 1.53%, and Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.42%. Thanks to the strong performance of home textiles, the overall performance of the home textile sector is obviously better than that of the big market. In terms of stocks, we have recommended that we have a good performance in the 7.23% main types, the lucky birds and the seven wolves, with a weekly gain of 3.7%, 3.11%.

Industry key data

February textiles clothing Exports amounted to US $9 billion 710 million, down 7% compared to the same period last year, of which 4 billion 260 million US dollars in textile exports, an increase of 5.9% over the previous year, and 5 billion 450 million US dollars in clothing exports, down 15.1% over the same period last year. According to the data of 3000 major retail enterprises of the Ministry of Commerce, clothing consumption was -3.2% in February. In terms of raw material prices, the spot price of grade 328 cotton was 19621 yuan / ton, basically the same as last week; the spot price of grade 336 long staple cotton was 23 thousand and 100 / ton, a slight decrease of 0.43% compared with last week; polyester staple fiber price was 11 thousand and 450 / ton, a slight decrease of 1.46% compared with last week; viscose staple fiber 16 thousand and 200 / ton, lower than last week's 2.41%; 40D light spandex silk price lower than 43 thousand / ton, unchanged from last week.

Performance growth and order expectations

Home textiles rebounded overall on Friday. We believe that the rise is not much related to fundamentals. It is estimated that the terminal retail sales of 10%+ will be increased by 1 in February and three in the market, and that in March, it will be the peak season for each household. The final status of a quarterly report will still depend on the data in March. However, the overall income growth rate is estimated to be more than 20%. Good news bird: order meeting we expect growth rate to be conservative 25%-28%; in the first quarter growth rate, we judge the income between 20%-30%, the profit growth rate is more than 30%. Seven wolves: we expect the order to increase by 25%+. According to terminal tracking data, it is expected that the terminal retail sales will grow by 30%+ in February, and the overall growth rate will be relatively high in the first quarter. Considering the increase of gross profit margin, net profit will increase by about 40%. Card slave Road: the order growth rate is expected to be around 30%, and terminal retail growth is expected to be equivalent to that.

We maintain the "prudent recommendation" rating for the industry since February 12th weekly.

Spin clothing The plate has already digested all kinds of unfavorable factors ahead of time. Although the climatic factors are not good, it is estimated that most enterprises will have a smooth spanition in the quarterly growth rate, and the order will increase by over 20%. In the case of stabilizing the market, taking into account the certainty of clothing growth, plate elasticity over the market elasticity. In the short term, the better brand clothing should be concentrated on the relatively high growth stocks in the first quarter, such as the long - style shares, the wedding birds, the seven wolves, etc. We still have a relatively pessimistic attitude towards productive enterprises.

In the near future, we recommend the listed companies, the good news birds, the blue stock and the seven wolves.

Among them, the birds are based on the company's brand. Operate Ability, a quarterly growth rate in 2012 is relatively high, and more than 80 stores in 2011 drive the performance of 2012. The main points of our position are based on the following points: first, we estimate that 2012Q1 growth is relatively high in brand clothing; secondly, based on the upgrading effect of new listing brands, we expect to open relatively fast stores in 2012; and the third is based on the strategy of building multi brand platform to open up space for the company's long-term growth. The seven wolves are mainly based on the relatively high expected growth rate of 2012Q1 and the potential of channel integration.