Cotton Market Situation Is Not Optimistic, The New Standard Will Be Introduced In September.

In March 24, 2012, the "2012 cotton industry situation and investment strategy seminar" was held in Wuhan. The conference was jointly sponsored by Zhejiang Yongan Futures Co., Ltd. and Hubei Cotton Association. Yang Zhaoliang, Deputy Secretary General of China Cotton Association The macro economic form in 2012 was analyzed and prospected.

From his own point of view, he made a judgement on the current cotton situation and the situation of the cotton market in 2012.

　 Analysis of cotton form at present

For the current cotton situation, Yang Zhaoliang said, through the investigation of the current cotton production situation, cotton farmers' income has dropped by 25%, the purchase price last year was 11.1 yuan, and the average price now is about 8.3 yuan. The number of cotton processing enterprises dropped from the peak of 1.8 in 2003 to about 3500 now, and the whole market is not optimistic. In circulation enterprises, poor sales become a common feeling of the market. The obvious shortage of orders, many textile enterprises in June after the list is very few or no, there is a panic mentality.

Another phenomenon in the cotton industry is the widening gap between inside and outside. Up to now, our domestic cotton is more expensive than them, 1% of the customs price, and 5% of the sliding tax. Now the quota of cotton has become the main focus. In the process of textile enterprise research, the textile enterprises' demands are very consistent. No matter where they are, they are all voices. The difference in June is too big. This time can not be too long. I hope our distribution can be distributed in time. Now it seems that enterprises have become our focus.

For the later situation, Yang Zhaoliang said, from a fundamental point of view, there are several key points. As for output, 2011 national statistics are 6 million 600 thousand tons and the association is 7 million 280 thousand tons. The US Department of agriculture forecasts 7 million 300 thousand tons of national cotton and 7 million 200 thousand tons of ICAC. The most controversial issue is the output of Xinjiang. There is a voice on the Council of the Beijing Cotton Association of China. The output of cotton in Xinjiang should be 3 million 600 thousand tons, and there are three reasons for this statement:

1, the Xinjiang development and Reform Commission and various miscellaneous newspapers have mutual interconnection, and they send their purchase status to the NDRC on the same day and every week. Now the number of their purchases to the end of the month is 3 million 580 thousand tons.

2, railway figures. At present, 1 million 300 thousand tons have been issued, and there are still 1 million 900 thousand tons in the exhibition booth in Xinjiang, and 1 million 400 thousand tons of cotton reserves.

3, public inspection, the Quality Supervision Bureau of China has a weekly report on the quantity of the national public inspection, which is also about 3000000 tons per week, and the output of cotton in Xinjiang is more than 3 million 500 thousand tons.

This year's cotton production is not very optimistic. From the initial survey intention, the reduction in the whole country is relatively large, the decrease in the Yangtze River Basin is 13%, the the Yellow River river basin is reduced by 27%, and the northwest inland is reduced by 7.3%. Import data, to the end of February this year, imports 2 million 616 thousand tons, accounting for 80% year-on-year. Among them, India is the first country of origin of imports, which has surpassed that of the United States.

The focus of policy is the quota. In December last year, it issued 940 thousand tons, 1% tariffs, and then issued a quota of cotton processing trade. Now, 5% of the quota is not issued. This time point is definitely after March 31st, it is estimated that there will be some action by mid April.

As for the international factors, the news of India is already being digested. The quantity available for export in India is 1 million 230 thousand tons. By the end of February, China had imported 1 million 130 thousand tons of cotton, and the remaining 500 thousand tons might be in other countries.

India policy factors have basically been digested, and the biggest variable is the European debt crisis. The Greek crisis may explode the European debt crisis in the future. We are not too optimistic about Greece now. People in Europe are really lazy and do not want to work. They want to live comfortably. Now the welfare policy has been tightening up a little. Now the EU's plan to save Greece is really a bottomless pit. By the end of 2012, the key to success of the EU's rescue of Greece is in this year. If the EU wants to split up, there are several core European countries that have great influence on Euro. Just now, Professor Xie said that we should not buy euros. There are too many uncertainties in the euro.

Our country now has the nuclear deterrent policy of cotton in China. Chinese cotton The main purpose of macroeconomic regulation and control is to keep the market stable and stable, that is, prices will not fall or rise. Only by establishing the nuclear deterrent policy of China's cotton can we maintain the policy of national macroeconomic regulation and control.

　　 Standard reform

The core of this cotton quality standard reform is to change "cotton grade" to "color level" (color type and grade). Color level and grade are two completely different concepts. There is no one-to-one correspondence. The implementation of color level is only on sawtooth cotton, and the roller roller cotton has poor color uniformity and uniformity, so there is no way to formulate the color characteristic map of cotton now.

　　 Sawtooth cotton will cotton The grade is changed to color grading, according to the color depth. Now it has been completed to four types and three grades. There is no corresponding relationship between the color level and the past grade concept. There are two totally different quality evaluation systems.

Because cotton is a mandatory standard. When China entered the WTO, it promised to inform all WTO member countries about the promise of WTO. The time of notification was 2 months, and the 4 to mid June is the time of notification of new standards. If WTO member states have no big opinion on the new standard, the new cotton standard will be issued by the national cotton standard committee before September 1st.

The implementation of this standard will have a great impact on the market and will have a very significant impact. It includes the acquisition policy of state-owned cotton stores, the trading of spot and futures, electronic matching transactions, the setting of price index, the calculation of the national sliding tax rate and so on.