Ready For Cotton Storage And Storage In 2012

In March 24, 2012, the "2012 cotton industry situation and investment strategy seminar" was held in Wuhan. The conference was jointly sponsored by Zhejiang Yongan Futures Co., Ltd. and Hubei Cotton Association. Song Guilian, a central storage cotton management company, made an analysis of the market from storage and storage.

First, she told the 2011 year. Cotton collection and storage The basic situation is expounded. After the rise and fall of cotton prices in the past three years, cotton processing enterprises have played a good protective role for cotton growers this year, and this policy has now formed a long-term mechanism.

Last September 8th when the national cotton price index was below 19 thousand and 800, the state launched a policy of purchasing and storing cotton. But at that time cotton growers expected higher cotton prices for cotton seed cotton last year, while cotton processing enterprises did not dare to buy cotton at high price when there was no market purchasing power, and prices were in a state of stalemate for quite some time.

After a month's deal, there was no actual deal. With the international situation becoming clearer, the United States Department of agriculture also announced the emergence of the supply and demand situation of the world's cotton production over the market. The world's cotton inventories recorded a record increase of about 2 million 800 thousand tons. In addition, the economic crisis in the developed countries was not stable due to the aggravation of the European debt crisis, so the international capital last year's capital chain was the most tense moment. The textile situation was not very good, and all kinds of factors at home and abroad intensified, and the first cotton was sold in November.

Secondly, she collected and stored in 2012. Reserve plan Three changes were made in the content change.

First, the original three main producing areas were identified. At that time, Zhejiang also mentioned that they also had cotton storage, which was not included in the main production area, but their cotton was also collected by us.

Second, on the level of storage and purchase, last year when Hebei and Shandong were in charge of the research and Development Commission, the purchase of cotton processed in Shandong, Hebei, failed to reach four level. At the beginning of this year, the storage capacity of Shandong Hebei was very small. The people there had a characteristic that cotton was willing to stay for later sale. The former processing enterprises thought that they would not be able to get any more cheaply because the cotton did not sell after processing, and some local government departments also responded to this situation. However, when the plan was not introduced in 2011, at that time, we also discussed whether the central storage cotton company could accept it. At that time, we did not expect to receive 3 million tons this year. At that time, we considered that the water and variation of the 5 flower were relatively large, and the company did not agree. This year, the company added a "huge natural disaster in special areas, most of which can not reach 4 level, but can be relaxed to 5, but it needs to be studied by relevant departments". Class differences must not be carried out according to this standard. The sale price of grade 5 flowers and high class flowers are not thousands of dollars, and Xinjiang's 2 level flower can be sold to 21 thousand.

Third, the trend of cotton in the next stage. This needs to see a basic aspect. Now, if the situation of textile enterprises is not too good, it may not be out of stock in a short time. Unless the expected output figures are not accurate, the expected output plus import volume will still be available for several months, while the latter part of the country's import quota has never been released. Now, the bulk of the cotton tax returns on the port must be taken into account in various factors. The imported cotton is now no less than one million tons, but from the data analysis, it used about seven million tons in the first seven months, which is absolutely impossible, probably half the quantity.

　　 About the situation of storage and purchase in 2012

She pointed out that if there is no big improvement in the market, they will always be ready to buy and store in 2012.

First, from a global perspective. Analysis from the US Department of agriculture and the following year Bulb cotton In terms of output reduction, overall production is larger than sales, and inventories will be higher.

Second, our domestic textile enterprises are higher than the international market of more than 3000 yuan of cotton, the textile produced by export competition in the international arena is not competitive, thus affecting the export of enterprises. Now textile enterprises are not eager to increase their turnover stocks, because through this year's storage and purchase, plus the original stock of the central storage cotton, this year added part of the imported inventory, and now the stock of cotton has reached a higher high point, which has been tamped. If there is no cotton in hand, the state will throw it away at any time, so they are also eager to increase their inventory. Our analysis of the reduction in cotton consumption does not mean that the amount of ten million tons or more of such a year of analysis should be well prepared in the new year.