Textile And Garment Industry: External Demand Is Expected To Rebound In The Two Quarter.

Textile manufacturing: exports are expected to rebound in the two quarter

We believe that textile manufacturing performance elasticity comes mainly from external demand.

PMI in the US has picked up in December 2011.

Us wholesalers and retailers are in the out of stock stage. We expect the replenishment of stocks to start in the two quarter.

The textile and clothing consumption figures in the EU27 region showed a year-on-year trend of bottoming up.

We expect that textile manufacturers with high export dependence will start to recover after entering the two quarter.

We maintain the judgement that exports will be bottomed out in the first quarter.

Brand clothing: hesitate to move forward, high-end brand volume and price rise stronger ability.

The economy will be depressed and consumption will be suppressed.

We believe that companies with brand premium capability are expected to go through the cycle and continue to raise prices on the premise of volume increases.

Positioning high-end clothing products, consumers are less sensitive to price, and the capacity is relatively strong.

We expect high quality brand clothing traders to increase their orders in autumn and winter, or become the biggest catalytic factors for short-term stock prices.

The Ministry of Commerce launched the consumption policy in April, which is the medium term catalytic factor in the industry.

Industry strategy: maintain brand apparel sub industry "buy" rating

At present, the industry dynamic valuation is relatively reasonable.

In the future, the order will be held in 3 and April, the month of April promotion will be promoted, and a quarterly report will be disclosed.

Some high quality brands will be the biggest catalytic factor.

Maintain brand apparel sub industry "buy" rating.

Stock sorting: in the two quarter, the brand clothing sector, the sub sectors we recommend are men's clothing and high-end women's clothing.

The promising company is seven wolves (quotes, information), card slave Road, news bird (quotes, information), Lange stock (quotes, information); manufacturing sector, we recommend Hua Fu color spinning (quotes, information), Lu Tai A (quotes, information), suggest that we should pay attention to the cashmere industry (market information).

Risk warning

Consumer confidence is expected to decline, terminal inventory risks, raw materials, labor and channel costs rose more than expected.