Textile And Apparel Industry: The Fundamentals Need To Be Improved By &Nbsp; Performance Growth Is In Line With Expectations.

Last week's market review

Last week Textile and clothing The plate rose by 0.38% (apparel home textiles rose 1.99%, textile production increased by -1.59%), Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 1.53%, and Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.42%. Thanks to the strong performance of home textiles, the overall performance of the home textile sector is obviously better than that of the big market. As for stocks, we recommend [36.70 1.94% shares, research report, [13.15, 1.78% shares, research papers and seven wolves. Weekly gain They were 7.23%, 3.7% and 3.11% respectively.

　　 industry Key data

In February, the export volume of textiles and clothing was US $9 billion 710 million, down 7% compared with the same period last year, of which 4 billion 260 million US dollars in textile exports, an increase of 5.9% over the previous year, and 5 billion 450 million US dollars in clothing exports, down 15.1% over the same period last year. According to the data of 3000 major retail enterprises of the Ministry of Commerce, clothing consumption was -3.2% in February. In terms of raw material prices, the spot price of grade 328 cotton is 19621 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as last week; the spot price of grade 336 long staple cotton is 23 thousand and 100 / ton, a slight decrease of 0.43% compared with last week; polyester staple fiber. Price 11 thousand and 450 / ton, a slight decrease of 1.46% compared with last week; viscose staple fiber 16 thousand and 200 / ton, down 2.41% compared with last week; 40D light spandex silk 43 thousand / ton lower than last week, unchanged from last week.

Performance growth and order expectations

Home textiles rebounded on Friday as a whole. We believe that the rise is not much related to fundamentals. It is estimated that the [72.25 -0.67% share of Ru Lai Home Textile Co., Ltd.,]1, February, the terminal retail growth rate of 10%+, and the [45.03 -2.09% share research report of fuanna [45.03 are the same as that of Luo Lai, the lowest among the three companies. In March, it is the peak period for each household, and the final status of a quarterly report still depends on the March data. However, the overall income growth rate is estimated to be more than 20%. Good news bird: order meeting we expect growth rate to be conservative 25%-28%; in the first quarter growth rate, we judge the income between 20%-30%, the profit growth rate is more than 30%. Seven wolves: we expect the order to increase by 25%+. According to terminal tracking data, it is expected that the terminal retail sales will grow by 30%+ in February, and the overall growth rate will be relatively high in the first quarter. Considering the increase of gross profit margin, net profit will increase by about 40%. "[38.25 2% shares" Research Report: the order growth rate is expected to be around 30%, and the terminal retail growth rate is expected to be equivalent to that.

We maintain the "prudent recommendation" rating for the industry since February 12th weekly.

The textile and garment sector has already digested all kinds of unfavorable factors ahead of time. Although the climate factors are not good enough, it is estimated that most enterprises will have a smooth spanition in the quarterly growth rate, and the order will increase by more than 20%. In the case of stabilizing the market, taking into account the certainty of clothing growth, plate elasticity over the market elasticity. In the short term, the better brand clothing should be concentrated on the relatively high growth stocks in the first quarter, such as the long - style shares, the wedding birds, the seven wolves, etc. We still have a relatively pessimistic attitude towards productive enterprises.

Recent recommendation Listed company - birds of good luck, the shares of blue and seven wolves.

Among them, good luck birds based on the company's brand operation ability, a relatively high quarterly growth rate in 2012, and more than 80 large stores in 2011 driving the performance of 2012; the main part of the company is based on the following points: first, we estimate that 2012Q1 growth is relatively high in brand clothing; secondly, based on the promotion effect of the new listing brand, it is expected that the sales will be relatively fast in 2012; and the third is based on the strategy of building multi brand platform to open up space for the company's long-term growth. The seven wolves are mainly based on the relatively high expected growth rate of 2012Q1 and the potential of channel integration.