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Textile And Clothing: Cotton Purchase And Storage Plan Is Close To The End Of &Nbsp; Cautious Attitude Towards Cotton Price Trend

2012/3/27 17:00:00 9

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Textile And Apparel Financial And Securities

This week, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen stock index and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose -2.30%, -3.83% and -2.69% respectively.

Everbright textile and garment sector rose -2.69%, of which the textile and clothing sectors rose by -1.66%, -3.50% and brand respectively.

Clothes & Accessories

There is an adjustment.

In terms of stocks, the smaller stocks rose earlier, and the 002656 quarter shares announced that the net profit increased by 40-60% compared with the previous quarter.

Next week is the last week of the state's policy of purchasing and storing up in 2011.

By the end of this Friday, the total amount of cotton storage and storage in China cotton reserve reached 2 million 913 thousand tons in 11, accounting for 44% of the total cotton output last year (the National Bureau of Statistics announced the total output of cotton in China for 6 million 600 thousand years in 11 years).

According to the latest prediction by the US Department of agriculture in March, China

cotton

Treasury sales rose to 46.13% again, still at a historically high level.

With the end of the 11 year storage and the relatively low demand for the downstream market, cotton prices will soon be under pressure. But throughout the implementation of the 8 national cotton purchase and storage, the closing price of the cotton purchase has declined but not much, and the 12 year policy of storage and purchase has been announced (the object of 12 years of new cotton, the storage price 20400 yuan / ton, the storage time 11.9.1-12.3.31) will also play a supporting role in the whole year's cotton price.

Recent part

Men's wear

The autumn and winter orders of listed companies will be held one after another. The order amount will increase by 25%, the card slave road will increase by 30-40%, and Hinur (002485, stock bar) increase by 20%, and the seven wolf (28 order will end) is expected to increase by 30%.

In March, the "home textile three heroes" carried out "big promotion" activities.

In 1-2, the furniture, building and decoration materials released by the National Bureau of statistics increased by more than 25% over the same period. Considering the construction period of 1 months or so, we expect that the "big promotion" effect in March will exceed expectations, and the inventory level is expected to decrease, which will help the growth of orders in 4-5 months.

In the long run, the long-term investment value of brand clothing is obvious, benefiting from the upgrading of domestic consumption.

In the short term, we believe that as the negative factors affecting the brand clothing industry (high price and seasonal upside down) disappear gradually, the retail sales data in April will be better than before. More aggressive investors can choose to enter in advance.

The future uncertain risk comes mainly from the economic downturn, and residents' consumption will continue to slump.

It is recommended to pay close attention to the change of men's wear terminal data and the "big promotion" sales situation of home textiles in March.

News of industry companies:

(1) Mcglaughlin set up a logistics sharing platform; (2) the TOP ranking of Tmall menswear stores in 2011; (3) the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute: this year, consumption is expected to become the first driving force in the economy; (4) the net profit of Nike in the third quarter has increased 7% over the same period last year; (5) the net profit of Giordano increased 35.6% last year and opened 318 stores; (6) men's wedding birds wanted to open the "Chinese clothes" store in Europe; (6) the Zippo dress will enter the Chinese market; (Sports) the sports industry integration speed up, BELLE stores over Lining Anta;

Lu Tai A: announce the 2011 Annual Report; (11) card slave Road: announce the first quarter results announcement in 2012; (12) Rand's share (002612, stock bar): announce 2011 Annual Report, plan equity incentive plan.

Industry data summary:

Raw materials: grade 328 cotton spot: 19538 yuan / ton (-0.17%); American cotton Cotlook A:98.05 cents / pound (0.51%); viscose staple fiber: 15810 yuan / ton (-7.27%); polyester staple fiber: 11220 yuan / ton (-3.69%).

Check Lu Tai A details

Textile and clothing [plate index: 2455.21 ups and downs: -0.41%