Unilateral High Cotton Prices May Reactivate Imported Gauze Market

Industry status

Yarn production began to be announced at about 28 million 945 thousand tons, with a total of 29 million tons.

The average annual growth rate from 2001 to 2010 is 12.95%, and the actual growth rate of capacity is 12.37%.

The total annual output of Chinese yarn per 10000 yuan, from 1969 to 2010, is the lowest in 1996. The annual output of 10000 spindles has reached 1099 tons, and has exceeded 2200 tons since 2009.

The layout of yarn industry is viewed from several products.

The yarn yield data in 2011 were compared with that in 2010.

The biggest proportion of cotton yarn is

Cotton blend and cotton chemical fiber are mainly concentrated in coastal areas. The former Sanming is Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian, and our Hubei purified fiber ranks fourth.

From the perspective of growth, the main growth areas are Fujian and Hubei, and Fujian is most concentrated on the three sides.

In 2010, the amount of 27 million 610 thousand tons was released. The final research data was about 20 million tons. From the data of 29 million tons of statistical bulletin of enterprises, cotton yarn occupied about 76%, and the proportion of chemical fiber was not too large.

In terms of annual growth, the output of 08 to 2011 increased by 34.95%, but the growth rate of cotton yarns did not keep up with the growth of total yarn. The main growth rate was reflected in the blend yarn and fiber yarn.

Imports and exports are very obvious. Cotton yarn is mainly imported, imports are greater than exports. China's exports of low-end products have no advantage, mainly in high-end products.

Relatively high value-added products are exported to Italy and other places. The export of chemical fiber yarn is increasing obviously, and the quantity is increasing gradually.

The average annual growth rate of each product, the comparison of the productivity of spindles, the average annual growth rate from 12 years to 2001, except for the proportion of blended yarn and chemical fiber yarn, the blended yarn has increased in the early stage, but the growth of blended yarn appeared after the cotton rose.

The chemical fiber yarn has a relatively obvious growth during the "11th Five-Year" period, and the performance in 2011 is not very obvious. However, the growth rate of chemical fiber yarn will continue to increase in the long term.

From a long-term perspective, we can predict that the number of spindles in China is likely to increase by 50% by 2020. From this point of view, the demand for cotton, including chemical fiber, will increase substantially.

This piece of cotton yarn has not been increased so much, whether it is from planting or from global supply and demand.

From the current situation, if the pure cotton yarn is imported into India cotton for production, our enterprises will be able to make profits. But if we calculate the current cost of imported cotton, our spinning enterprises are losing money. According to our estimation, large enterprises now have 45 to 60 days of volume. Basically, they are kept in a month or so, and small businesses are also in the 30 to 40 days, which is very large.

Cloth inventory is high, from this perspective, including listed companies and ready to be listed companies, the total inventory is very large, more than 30 billion, accounting for some of the total assets of more than 50%.

From the perspective of domestic demand, the follow-up business situation of domestic garment enterprises is still concentrated on the inventory consumption, and the demand for subsequent raw materials may slow down.

This is the inventory. This is our first step to break through. From the perspective of industrial recovery, if the inventory is still so high, one is to hold the capital and the market information is not enough. It is estimated that there will be no big action.

High cost, from the perspective of national stable cotton prices, the price difference between domestic cotton prices and foreign cotton prices will continue for a period of time. The cost rise of employing electricity consumption has been normalized, and there is no way to change it again.

High property tax, which is also the most difficult public relations, is also an urgent problem.

Also mentioned at the cotton spinning conference, the financing cost of enterprises has increased, and the expenditure must be about 35%. This proportion is increasing substantially compared with previous years. When our textile enterprises borrow money, the basic interest rate should be raised by about 30%, which is quite high for our enterprises.

Tax, which is what our industry has been calling for.

Structural pformation and trend of supply and demand.

The supply and demand volume mentioned above refers to the foreign yarn.

The average price of yarns converted from Pakistan, India and Indonesia is the same from 2010 to 2012.

Last week, a figure was counted. The cotton price of India cotton is less than 12 thousand according to the local price, which is nearly 8000 yuan lower than that of China. The current price in Pakistan is more than 8600 yuan, which is still lower than that in China.

Judging from the yarn, the price of the port traders at present has been more than 2000 yuan over the same specifications in the domestic market. The quality difference of our domestic price can be about 1500, but if from the global point of view, compared with the other 20 countries produced by China and Pakistan and India, the cost of our spinning 20 and Pakistan 20 is 5000 to 6000 yuan lower than ours.

From the experience of previous years, the highest value is basically 2000 to 3000 yuan, but now the spread is gradually widening, because China is collecting and storing, but the price of cotton abroad is declining.

From the situation of spinning enterprises, if we continue to produce relatively high homogenization degree, or even some low-end products, I think the impact of imported gauze will be more obvious.

China's economic environment is not ideal, resulting in poor domestic and foreign financial environment of yarn, some importers of enterprises gradually withdrew from the end of last year, in the fourth quarter, including this year, many of which did not import yarn before, only imported cotton has gradually increased this business.

Including inland areas are also doing import yarn, import yarn will follow the growth will be more obvious.

The capacity of all regions, the difference between yarn and China accounted for 49% of the total, and India and Pakistan accounted for nearly 1/4 of the volume. Our competitive countries still came from India and Pakistan.

China accounts for nearly half of the amount of weaving.

Pakistan has about 1/5 of India.

The competitiveness of these countries is the most competitive factor in China. The labor cost is the highest in China. According to the data of the textile industry, the data is the highest in China, and there is a bigger one. We are also most concerned about import and export enterprises. In recent years, the adjustment of currency exchange rate has been relatively large. China has appreciated nearly 20%. However, Pakistan has depreciated by nearly 50% and India has appreciated by 11.39%. This piece of China has a very obvious advantage.

Demand, we are now much more, export gradually shrinking, all want to boost domestic sales, but has been unable to get very good results.

Exports are gradually shifting to emerging markets.

Domestic sales are mainly through structural adjustment.

From 09 to 2011, China's textile exports accounted for the proportion of major regions. From this chart, it can be seen that the proportion of Europe's 09 to 2011 accounts for a gradual decline in China's export textiles, including a relatively clear decline in North America.

There are some growth in ASEAN, Middle East and Africa.

It is mainly the development of some emerging markets.

Clothing has also increased significantly in ASEAN, Africa and Europe, and the rate of reduction in Japan is relatively large.

The "12th Five-Year plan" mentioned a data, which has two directions, one is to increase home textile use, the other is to increase industrial use.

If it is to do a terminal bias in the middle and lower reaches of this product can be paid attention to.

Judging from the recent market, many spinning enterprises have relatively large inventory and some prices are very large in consultation.

Now the cotton market is in a state of freezing, with little quantity and no demand. This is also very sad for everyone.

Recently, in Nantong, Jiangsu, it is also the focus of home textile manufacturing in China.

Follow up home textile and industrial enterprises can explore.

The output, export and performance consumption of chemical fiber yarn are obviously higher than that of cotton yarn and total yarn. The trend of non cotton textile in China and the world is obvious.

In 2012, the inventory of all sectors of the industry was large, and the thinking of seasonal operation of gauze enterprises was weakened.

The second half begins in August, from 8 to October.

Neither of these two peak seasons was very accurate last year.

Last year was mainly based on market operation.

This year, many enterprises, including raw materials, expect our downstream spinning and manufacturing replenishment cycle to start at the end of February. At the end of last year, viscose staple fibers were concentrated on a part of the list, and many downstream enterprises were replenishment to the end of February. In the new year's market this year, the smallest reaction was pure cotton, which increased by two thousand yuan and then fell down. The stock of viscose staple fiber factory has nearly more than 20 days. Now, viscose staple fiber has been more than 1000 yuan in terms of cost accounting.

The loss of spinning and pure cotton yarn has reached about 500 yuan.

When we expect to carry out centralized replenishment, the operation of our enterprises is not so. Many enterprises are constantly calling to ask, the staple mills' opinions are very firm, and they are unwilling to reduce prices, but there is no way to get the whole demand. Everyone is expected to get better from 3 to May, but judging from the order, the situation after coming just now is obviously much worse than last year.

In this way, everyone will be cautious about the judgment of replenishment.

Including later production inventory and inventory control, we all have more cautious thinking.

The high price of cotton in the past two years may re activate the market of imported gauze, and domestic enterprises should be well prepared.

The development of the international terminal market can aim at emerging markets and protect exports.

Domestic demand should follow up the demand of industrial structure adjustment, so that the subsequent production and operation can be more smoothly.