When Will The Market Stay Down Depends On Bank Shares?

Bad factors are being released.

Accompanied by early rebound of the market Negative factors Increasing, especially since March, the stock index rebound has begun to weaken, and the negative effects of negative factors are beginning to emerge. First, as the stock index entered a rebound pressure zone, the institutions and the size of the non accelerated reduction, such as Goldman Sachs and social security, reduced the 500 million shares of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000) shares of the ICBC and the Bank of China, the 600000 shares of the Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (), which were sold out of last week's Citibank discount, and the volume of trading volume of the bulk trading platform in March 19th. The large cap Construction Bank (601939), China Shenhua (601088), Beijing Bank (601169), and Shanghai electromechanical (600835) were all sold off.

There is no doubt that the reduction of large quantities of institutions and large quantities of the stock market will have negative pressure on the two tier market. Secondly, the total amount and process of the capital entering into the pension market is much lower than the market expectation. A few days ago, the State Council approved the National Social Security Fund Council to invest and operate the basic old-age insurance fund for urban employees in Guangdong Province, which is 100 billion yuan. But because there is still a certain distance from the real operation, and the vast majority of investment products are fixed income products, there are very few funds that can really enter the stock market. Third, the economic situation is not optimistic. In March 22nd, HSBC announced that the initial PMI value in China dropped to 48.1 in March, a record low of 4 months, ending a 3 month rally. At the same time, due to imported inflation and endogenous factors, the pressure of rising prices persists.

　 Investment strategy and operation suggestion

Judging from the recent market trend, the momentum of adjustment has been increasing. Specifically, last week, although the individual weight plate has been rapidly pulled up, but helpless market lack of continuous enthusiasm, funds will follow suit will not be strong, and ultimately form a situation of loneliness. In addition, as the adjustment time continues to lengthen, the local market is still deducing, but the phenomenon of the stock market's stock down has begun to appear. This is enough to show that the market air force is gradually increasing, and it may not be ruled out that the current strong stocks may also have the possibility of differentiation in the future.

From the technical indicators, the Shanghai Composite Index has been repeatedly supported for half a year, and it is expected that there will be inertia adjustment in the market. On the whole, with the gradual decline of the hot spots and the worsening of the sustainability, the market mentality is becoming more cautious, and investors' willingness to make profits has also been increasing. Investors who are still in a higher position need to be cautious.

In terms of operation, we can focus on the adjustment before the market. Banking sector Whether we can take the lead in stabilizing the market or not, we still need to control the positions before that, and we should be alert to the short-term risks of new shares and bad stocks.

　　 Inflation pressures drop and policy fine-tuning is in sight.

In 2012, due to the decline in external demand and real estate regulation, the slowdown in economic growth will become a trend. The policy balance point will gradually shift from the inflation targeting system to a balanced economic development. Policy fine-tuning Expect to appear. Colleagues, the pressure on foreign exchange holdings has provided more room for monetary policy fine-tuning. The differential reserve ratio has made dynamic adjustments to the relevant parameters according to the change of the situation, and there is a possibility of reducing the statutory reserve requirement ratio.