The Growth Of Foreign Trade Will Show A Trend Of "Low Before And After High" &Nbsp, And The Foreign Trade Situation Of Shoe Enterprises Will Be Improved.
Currently affected by the spread of the European debt crisis, some foreign trade
Shoe enterprises
The order is not enough, but what is more important is that they have no bottom in the foreign trade situation.
However, on the 27 day, Pei Changhong, director of the Institute of economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed the current situation at the "Huada lecture hall".
Economics
The situation shows that the growth of foreign trade this year will show a trend of "low before and after high", and the next export situation will be better than the first two months of this year.
Import and export trade grew or exceeded 10%
"The current slowdown in exports has put pressure on the economy, including
Quanzhou
This is also true.
Pei Changhong said.
In fact, this point has been reflected in the statistical data released by the Customs Department. In February, the export volume of our city first appeared year-on-year and double decline.
But for the next trend, Pei Changhong made a more optimistic prediction. "The whole foreign trade situation is still not seen in the first quarter, because enterprises began to buy large quantities of orders from the second quarter, and shipped a lot in the three quarter and fourth quarter.
Combined with the current international environment, exports will be better in the next 1 and February.
"This year, the global economic growth rate will decline but not decline. The overall situation will not be worse than last year.
From developed countries to emerging economies, they have sent a more positive signal.
Pei Changhong said, for example, a number of recent economic data released by the United States showed that the country's economy is in the recovery stage, and retail sales in February to $407 billion 810 million, the largest increase since September 2011, and the employment market is also improving.
And the most worried European region, in the near future, the Italy debt crisis is easing the positive signal, the yield of Italy national debt has fallen sharply, and the profit margin of German treasury bonds has been narrowing...
These are favorable signals for exports.
Premier Wen said that the import and export trade increased by 10% this year. This index must have been widely consulted. It is a prudent indicator. I believe the actual figure is higher than this.
It could be 12% such a level. "
Pei Changhong said.
Small and micro enterprises have debt risk
"The difficult situation of small and micro enterprises is difficult to reflect in official statistics, but its difficulties in operation, financing difficulties and debt risk are one of the challenges facing China's economy."
In analyzing the current economic situation, Pei Changhong said that small and micro enterprises have poor digestion capability and poor solvency.
However, to solve the financing problems of small and micro enterprises, he admitted that "the state can only slowly release because supervision can not keep up".
However, this does not change the trend of China's economic growth.
According to the latest report of the research group of the Academy of Social Sciences, GDP is expected to grow by 8.7% in 2012.
Pei Changhong said that the second year plan for the 12th Five-Year plan will focus on the construction of investment projects, and will drive economic growth to a certain extent.
As for the price problem that people are generally concerned about, Pei Changhong said that although the momentum of rapid rise has been controlled, the deep-seated contradictions in the cyclical fluctuation of prices have not been solved.
For example, the problem of food production and circulation, information asymmetry in production and consumption links can not be solved in a short time.
In addition, rising labor costs, resource price adjustments, and rising international commodity prices will lead to import inflation pressures, which will also drive up prices.
He expects the CPI rise in 2012 to be controlled at 3.5% to 4%.
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