Monthly Report Of Textile And Garment Industry (Total Tenth Issue)

We have characterized the rise of the textile and garment industry in February as a valuation repair market. In March, the textile and garment sector rose by 1.35%, ranking second in all sectors, winning the market 4PCT.

We believe that some garment companies over the 1 quarter. Expect The performance stimulus brought about the stock price performance, outstanding performance of clothing stocks such as Carlo NDI Road, Pathfinder and long Zi stock. In addition, the characteristics of the theme market under the better mobility market environment were quite obvious. The top ten stocks were mostly non mainstream varieties (such as Sanmao and Shanghai Sanmao). Therefore, we believe that the March textile and garment sector is still a continuation of valuation repair and parallel speculation.

Current industry fundamentals:

1. domestic sales. (1) ordering will be difficult. Expect 。 In the case of a certain pressure on the stock terminal, and the price increase is not large, the data of 2012 autumn and winter ordering will not exceed expected. We estimate that the card road, the nore, Wedding bird And the order of seven wolves increased by 30%, 20%, 25% (10% respectively) and 30% respectively. (2) terminal sales are not performing well. At present, from the understanding of the terminal situation, in the first quarter, due to the influence of double node overlay, abnormal climate and pre inventory backlog, the growth rate of revenue is general. In February, department store data showed negative growth (-8%), and the negative effects of the high-end industry located in the shopping mall channel began to appear.

2. exports. Exports in February declined by -2.56% compared with the same period last year, but no rebound has been seen. However, the expansion of textile companies in the two or three quarter is expected to continue as planned according to the expansion of textile companies.

3.4 month strategy: we judge: (1) locate high-end products. negative The impact is beginning to show that high-end women's clothing growth slowed to 20%. (2) in April, the order of leisure brands and sports brands will continue, and the price of the relevant companies may be subject to data constraints. (3) in April, we continue to recommend companies that have expected performance or potential catalysts: cashmere industry, Pathfinder, card slave Road, orient Kim Yu and long group. At present, the plate is valued at 23 times, maintaining the recommended rating of the brand clothing plate and the neutral rating of the textile plate.