China'S Eastern, Central And Western Economies Show Obvious Contrast.

"The overall order is shrinking, but there is good news," he said.

In April 6th, as one of the top garment accessories enterprises in China, a member of Ningbo Heng garment accessories company told reporters about the current production and operation situation. Since this year, orders from Europe, America and Japan have dropped by 20%-30%, but orders from Africa and India have increased by 15%-20%.

The change of enterprise orders is more directly reflected in economic data. In the 1-2 months of this year, the growth rate of industrial added value of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size in Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Guangdong declined significantly, which were only 2.4%, 4%, 2.9%, 5%, compared with 9%, 13.9%, 12.5% and 13.3% in the same period last year, almost down 2/3.

Wenzhou, Dongguan and Shenzhen even had negative growth in total industrial output value or industrial added value, while Beijing and Shanghai showed negative growth in fiscal revenue or export delivery value.

In stark contrast,

In 1-2 months this year, industries in Hubei, Hunan, Anhui, Guizhou, Chongqing, Shaanxi and other provinces (cities) maintained a growth rate of about 17% or even higher.

Shaanxi and Anhui research departments predict that the economic growth rate in the first quarter of this year will probably be around 13%, which is obviously contrasting with the expectation that the four coastal provinces (cities) do not exceed 8%.

Industrial negative growth in Wenzhou, Shenzhen and Dongguan

Entering the 2012, the economy of Wenzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan and other places had a rare negative number.

In the 1-2 month of this year, Wenzhou's exports dropped by 5.3%, the total industrial output value of industrial products above Designated Size dropped by 5.7%, and the actual utilization of foreign capital decreased by 64.5%. The number of new signing agreements and foreign investment agreements decreased by 177.8% and 66.7% respectively.

Over the same period, Shenzhen and Dongguan also saw a 3% or 12.5% decline in the value added of above scale industries over the same period last year.

In response to these changes, local enterprises and industry believe that this is related to the severe export situation and economic pformation.

Lin Jinyou, Secretary General of Wenzhou shoe leather industry association, told reporters that Wenzhou shoes industry is facing double pressures of rising wages and raw material costs, coupled with external demand, and exports are facing great difficulties. The only way out is to accelerate pformation and develop high value-added products.

At present, both Ningbo and Wenzhou have suffered large export pressure.

According to the statistics of the Zhejiang Provincial Bureau of statistics, the export delivery value of Ningbo dropped by 14.2% in 1-2 months and 4.1% in Wenzhou.

Only one area in Ningbo has resulted in a 3.6 percentage point drop in the export delivery value of Zhejiang in 1-2 months.

Affected by this, in 1-2 months, the delivery value of industrial exports above Designated Size in Zhejiang province was 137 billion 30 million yuan, down 2% from the same period last year.

Ningbo Union garment accessories company told reporters that at present, the company's export orders are declining overall, only the order of emerging market countries can partially compensate for the lack of market demand in Europe and the United States.

"Enterprises are currently producing according to orders, but the wage cost of employees has been rising. This year after Spring Festival, they generally increase by about 5%-8%."

According to the above sources, the average monthly salary of employees is 2500-3000 yuan. Due to the limited salary increase, there is still a shortage of employment.

Lin Jinyou also said that after the Spring Festival this year, migrant workers did not return to the climax, and the railway department also ended the peak of the Spring Festival ahead of schedule.

"Migrant workers after the Spring Festival rework postponed or reduced, indeed affected the production."

Lin Jinyou said.

According to the Statistics Bureau of Zhejiang, the factors restricting the development of small and medium enterprises in 1-2 this year have not been fundamentally improved.

The weakening of market demand, the increase of raw materials, labor costs and tight funds and other constraints on the development of small and medium enterprises will not be fundamentally improved in the short term, and the production and operation of small and medium enterprises will be difficult.

Coastal economic slowdown

Some experts who are familiar with the local economy do not think that the labor shortage has led to the decline of the eastern coastal industry.

Shenzhen University Zhongshan Economic Research Center Zhong Jian believes that the coastal economic slowdown is inevitable. Especially in the Pearl River Delta, represented by Shenzhen and Dongguan, Suzhou and Wenzhou are expected to be represented by the Yangtze River Delta. Because of the past economic mode has been difficult to sustain, it is difficult to have high-speed growth.

At present,

"There are large high-tech enterprises such as HUAWEI that can support Shenzhen, but there are no such large enterprises in Dongguan, so the economy will still face severe challenges in the next few years."

He said.

Zhong Jian pointed out that Shenzhen's per capita GDP has exceeded 13 thousand US dollars and entered the ranks of developed countries and regions.

From this perspective, Shenzhen's economic slowdown is in line with the economic law.

However, there are still many short boards that are not suited to the level of economic development in Shenzhen. For example, according to international experience, the proportion of services in developed economies should reach 70%, while Shenzhen has only 50%.

According to the report issued by the Shenzhen Statistical Bureau, from the historical data, the current fall is a normal reaction to the external environmental changes, and it has not fallen to the extent that the financial crisis was affected in the same period in 2009.

The above analysis pointed out that the current "moderate economic growth rate reflects the normal impact of Shenzhen's own industrial upgrading and economic pformation".

Shenzhen is in the stage of economic pformation, and has suffered from the impact of domestic and international economic environment. The moderate slowdown in economic growth reflects the pformation of Shenzhen's economy from speed to quality, reflecting the normal influence and change of industrial pformation and upgrading.

From some enterprises, Shenzhen's economic slowdown is now in pition.

Shenzhen Xinwei Garments Co., Ltd. is located in Sha Tau Kok Free Trade Zone, Yantian District, Shenzhen. The general manager of the company should tell reporters strongly that the company has always been producing clothing products and exported to the European and American markets.

Since January 2012, exports have decreased by nearly 30%.

Being strong does not show concern.

The reason is that profits earlier this year were better than last year's.

"The company is ready."

He said.

Affected by the European debt crisis and the US economic downturn, consumer confidence in the two major markets in Europe and the United States has been severely hit.

In the second half of 2011, strong companies began to develop new customers in the mainland. Up to now, 2 or 3 relatively large customers have been trained, and orders have been placed in August this year.

According to the strong introduction, now the company's target is 60% of foreign trade and 4 of domestic sales, and can not be overly dependent on foreign markets.

Local cooling of Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Guangdong

In the second half of 2011, strong companies began to develop new customers in the mainland, and have now trained two or three relatively stable large customers, which have been placed in August this year.

According to the strong introduction, now the company's target is 60% of foreign trade and 40% of domestic sales, and can not rely too much on foreign markets.

Zhong Jian believes that Shenzhen and Dongguan and Wenzhou should accelerate the pformation, such as speeding up the upgrading of the technological content of enterprises and reducing the dependence on human cost.

On the other hand, it can extend the industrial chain. In the past, it was mainly for processing. In the future, it could make brand, do research and development and product sales, especially to the mainland.

"There is no other way out.

Otherwise, if Foxconn is pferred to the mainland, it will still face the problem of rising labor costs in the long run. At present, there is only a temporary competitive advantage. "

Not only Shenzhen, but also the economic slowdown of Guangdong, Shanghai, Beijing and Zhejiang is also related to the development stage.

Data show that Shanghai's per capita GDP in 2011 was 12784 US dollars, and Beijing's per capita GDP was US $12447, which was close to that of developed countries.

In 2011, the economic growth rate of Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Guangdong ranked the last in the country.

Xu Jianfeng, director of the Institute of economics, Zhejiang Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that in 2008, Zhejiang's per capita GDP had reached $6080, which was close to Japan's 1970, Taiwan 1986 and South Korea's 1990 levels.

Referring to Japan, China's Taiwan region and South Korea's experience, this is the turning point from rapid economic growth to steady growth.

Gradient growth in East and West

In the 1-2 months of this year, industries in the central and western regions of Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Henan, Sichuan, Guizhou, Chongqing and Shaanxi still maintained rapid growth, with an increase of around 17%.

To this end, the economic research departments in Shaanxi and Anhui have judged that the economic growth in the first quarter of this year may be over 13%.

Chongqing, one of the core cities of the Western Triangle, grew rapidly in the first two months of this year, with export growth reaching 35%.

Deng Tao, director of the center for decision consultation and research of the Chongqing Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the rapid growth of Chongqing's exports is related to high-tech products such as notebooks. The products exported by many coastal provinces are mainly labor-intensive products, which are more vulnerable to changes in the international market demand.

In addition to the advantages of land and labor costs, Chongqing's exports and industrial growth are also factors that attach importance to the construction of R & D centers.

Chongqing's actual utilization of foreign capital increased by 55.3% in 1-2 months, and the investment contract value increased by 14.4%.

In the context of the decline of foreign direct investment in the whole country and coastal areas, it is particularly striking.

Dong Dehong, Secretary General of Chongqing Association of foreign invested enterprises, said that Chongqing has a golden waterway of the Yangtze River, and exports can go west to south. The Eurasian Continental Bridge and India ocean corridor, together with abundant labor resources, have great attraction for foreign investment.

"The central and western regions are attracting investment. What Chongqing shows is only comparative advantage."

Shen Kaiyan, deputy director of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said that the industrialization in the eastern coastal areas was nearly completed, the land and manpower costs were raised, and the external demand was reduced, so the economic growth slowed down. The Midwest is still in the stage of industrialization development. By attracting the pfer of industries, the industry is growing rapidly, and the economy still has room for accelerated development.

As a result, China can form a gradient development model to maintain stable and rapid economic growth in various regions, and help the country's economic growth to become more balanced.

The average per capita GDP of Beijing and Shanghai has reached the level of developed countries and regions. According to the economic law, it is inevitable that the growth rate will slow down.