China'S Silk Export Volume Is Expected To Decline In The Two Quarter.

In the first quarter of 2012, under the action of national macro regulation and expansion of consumption policy, China's cocoon and silk industry was running well, but it was subject to European sovereignty.

1. Basic operation of the industry

(1) the main products of cocoon and silk keep growing.

According to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, the output of main products of cocoon and silk industry increased in 1-2.

Among them, the output of silk was 16 thousand and 600 tons, an increase of 27.07% over the same period last year, and the output of silk and interwoven products was 106 million meters, an increase of 4.05% over the same period last year. The yield of silk was 8 million 750 thousand, an increase of 10.59% over the same period last year, and the output of silk spinning was 2100 tons, down 6.61% from the same period last year.

(two) the export volume and price of silk fabrics are falling.

According to customs statistics, the export volume of China's real silk products reached 488 million US dollars in 1-2 months, down 14.34% from the same period last year.

In the second half of 2011, the price of cocoon silk fell down and the economic recovery in Europe and the United States was weak. The export volume of raw material commodities decreased significantly. The export volume of silk and silk fabrics was 2 thousand and 600 tons and 26 million 285 thousand and 800 meters respectively, representing a decrease of 3.3% and 18.98% compared with the same period last year. The export volume was 98 million US dollars and 138 million US dollars respectively, down 13.81% and 4.3% respectively compared with the same period last year, and the export volume of silk manufactured goods was 251 million US dollars, down by 19.21% over the same period last year.

The United States, India, Italy, Japan and Hongkong are still our main export markets, accounting for 59.8% of the total export volume.

(three) steady increase in domestic silk sales

Since 2009, China has increased its support for domestic sales of silk, and has introduced a series of expansion.

(four) cocoon silk price is upward trend.

According to the statistics of China's cocoon and silk trading market, the price of dry cocoons and raw silk in the first quarter was 105 thousand yuan and 310 thousand and 600 yuan per ton respectively, up 9.6% and 3.6% respectively, down 16.4% and 18.16% respectively from the same period last year.

In January, dry cocoons and raw silk per ton were 101 thousand and 200 yuan and 298 thousand and 400 yuan respectively, up 3.27% and 0.51% respectively, up 17.79% and 19.05% respectively compared with that of the previous year. In February, dry cocoons and raw silk were 103 thousand and 900 yuan and 302 thousand and 700 yuan per ton respectively, and 2.67% and 1.44% respectively, respectively, respectively.

Before the Spring Festival, the volume of cocoon silk was insipid and the price was running smoothly. After the Lantern Festival, enterprises began to start production and increased demand for raw materials for cocoon silk production, and prices rose upward in late 2.

Especially in March, the raw material of cocoon silk is in the period of blue and white, and the price is rising rapidly in the short term.

On 7 and 20 March, the cocoon and raw silk reached the highest level in the year, 110 thousand and 400 yuan and 335 thousand and 400 yuan per ton, respectively, compared with the lowest price (4, 11 days in January), respectively, up 12 thousand and 900 yuan and 39 thousand yuan per ton, or 13.23% and 13.16% respectively.

Two, situation analysis of industry development

In 2012, the government's work report pointed out that this year, the government has promoted the steady and rapid economic development as the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control, and created conditions for the development of the industry. The reform of the distribution system and the structural adjustment of tax burden have enhanced the consumption capacity of residents, especially the expansion of consumption policies, which has increased the power of domestic sales of silk.

At the same time, we should continue to increase the intensity of the policy of strengthening agriculture and benefiting farmers, ensure the healthy and stable development of the upstream sericulture industry, strengthen credit support for small and micro enterprises, ease the financing difficulties of downstream industries, and will be conducive to the healthy and stable development of the industry.

However, the overall economic situation in the world is still very grim and complicated, and the uncertainty of economic instability is rising. Contradictions and problems that are unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable in domestic economic development are still outstanding.

The impact on industry is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

First, the export situation is not optimistic.

The world economy is still recovering slowly, but its growth momentum has been weakened.

The unemployment rate of the developed countries such as Europe and the United States is high, the growth of residents' income is weak, the external demand is slowing down, and world trade is on a downward trend.

According to customs statistics, in 1-2 months, the export market of traditional silk products in China decreased, and the exports of the United States, India, Italy and Japan fell by 13.91%, 17.15%, 20.76% and 5.69%, respectively.

Although emerging markets such as Pakistan rose by 15.54% over the same period last year, it is difficult to reverse the overall export situation.

The actual and intentional turnover of the Hongkong small fair this year amounted to $7 million 985 thousand and 100, down 59.6% from the previous spring fair.

Two is the continuous increase in production costs.

Since the beginning of this year, the price of crude oil and refined oil has been raised, and the pmission efficiency of related commodity service prices will be increased. The prices of agricultural materials, chemical industry, pportation and related commodities have already been raised. Other related commodities and services will not be affected in the short term, but the cumulative effect and superposition factors will increase the pressure of price increase in the long run.

The cocoon and silk industry has a long chain, involving three aspects of agriculture, industry and trade. The cost of silk production is facing an increase, coupled with rising factor costs and expected inflation pressure, which will inhibit the downstream silk consumption, and increase the pressure on sericulture production and silk business.

Three is the increasing expectations of the people.

Since April 16th this year, the fluctuation of RMB against the US dollar has expanded from 0.5% to 1%, providing space for the rapid appreciation of RMB. The appreciation of RMB has reached 0.2% this year, and the competitive advantage of silk products has been weakened.

The four is the urgent need for upgrading the industrial structure.

Affected by the European sovereign debt crisis, the demand for the international market is decreasing, and the traditional processing order trade has a greater impact. We should enhance our independent intellectual property rights innovation capability, establish our own brand, research and develop products with high added value, maintain the traditional market share, strengthen the construction of marketing network, and constantly open up new markets.

Five, the pressure of enterprise environmental protection is increasing.

In recent years, China has intensified its efforts to investigate energy conservation and emission reduction. In order to adapt to the current situation, large and medium-sized enterprises have successively invested in environmental protection equipment such as waste water recycling treatment and so on, ensuring the sustainable development of enterprises. However, due to limited funds, small enterprises will face the dilemma of being phased out by the market.

Three, two quarter forecast

Based on the above analysis, it is estimated that China's silk export has declined in the two quarter, and the output of main silk products has kept increasing, and the profit growth rate of enterprises has declined. The upward pressure of cocoon silk prices has weakened as a whole, and the purchasing price of spring cocoons is lower than that of the same period last year.

But we do not exclude artificial speculation, irrational trading and other factors, resulting in a larger fluctuation of cocoon silk price in local time.

With the summer approaching, sales of silk clothing and other products increased, but by the downward pressure on economic growth and the slow growth of residents' income, domestic silk sales growth has dropped.