The Wool Market Remains The Same, And We Need To Act Cautiously In The Future.

There is no doubt that many people in the past few months want to know. wool staple What's going on? In less than 12 months, the price of wool reached its peak and fell to a low level. At this time last year, the market seemed to be invincible, and the price of wool had soared and did not really see the top. Today, faced with the market, exporters and processors are at a loss.

From the December rest to the early March, the market suffered many setbacks. The price of wool has stabilized at a higher level after each fall. This upward trend is in line with the expectations of most people. No one can deny that demand is weak, but it is blinded by the fact that Australia's raw wool is in short supply.

As early as the beginning of March, the sale price of raw wool used in the spot market for post July forward delivery was greatly reduced, and people's confidence in the market was also dampened. Within a few weeks, auction prices began to fall, and have continued. In this short period of time, the price of T55 wool fell by at least 100 cents.

Not only that, some parts of New South Wales and Vitoria were torrential rain in February, but some of them were delayed for 4 weeks. These late shearing operations entered the auction and eventually formed the two peak supply periods before and after Easter holiday this year. According to convention, the supply of wool has begun to decrease. Such a large supply is difficult to digest for the market.

When formulating trade strategy, many people only notice that the quantity of wool available for sale this year is reduced, but the actual demand of downstream market is ignored. The wool supply is tight this year, but there is no guarantee that the price of wool will rise. This is very important at one ten because the auction price has dropped the most in the few weeks of the smallest supply.

The market trend is still unpredictable. The weekly supply of wool will be reduced to around 40000 packs, which may not be possible. Wool price Rising is enough to keep it from falling. The Merino wool in the market is less than 1% (FNF), and the average content of 70% Merino wool is up to 1.5% or more. This situation will last at least for the next 6-8 weeks. The price difference of FNF (grass impurity content is less than 1%) and that of minor B class defects (combined grass grasses content less than 2%) and B type blemishes (combined grass grasses content less than 3%) will be widened.

17.5 micron fine wool supply and demand are extremely limited, and prices may not change. 18.5 micron wool is one of the largest supply of wool in the market, but sales are not optimistic. So far, the market demand is still the largest 19.5-22.6 micron wool.

The content of Merino hair fragments of grass content not more than 3% is almost the same as that of 4-5%, and almost sold out. 19.3 micron 58 micron wool is still popular in the market, and the auction price is higher.

The content of carbonized hairy grass increased as a result of heavy rain. However, this may not cause much impact on the market, and the supply of carbonized raw wool is almost over.

　　 Hybrid wool The trend is opposite to the market, and prices remain high. The new business in April was limited, but the main reason why the market was active was that the wool sold in two or three must be delivered. In addition, wool varieties also have problems. Many hybrid hairs are affected by rain and their color is yellowish.

The message from the European market is that most of the wool industry chain is in tight supply and there is no stock at all. It seems to be the same in China.

In the next few months, the supply of wool will be very small for several auction weeks, because it is off season, and some wool brokers sell once every other week. If there is a strong demand for some wool in the market in those weeks, its price will go up sharply. However, this price increase is likely to be short-lived, because consumers seem unwilling to follow the rising market this year unless they have every reason to do so.

In addition to the resources sector, the Australian economy is in recession, which may affect the Australian dollar / US dollar exchange rate.

Experts believe that the wool market will maintain its current level and gradually become stable. The price of wool will probably rise slightly in the next few months (Australian dollar price rises 2-3%). We still need to act cautiously in the second half of the year.