Positioning Analysis Of Tomorrow'S Gem With Large Shares

Company fundamentals analysis

The company is a hi-tech enterprise engaged in R & D, production and sales of Sea Island microfiber leather products.

The "Tong Da" brand microfiber leather produced by the company is recognized as "China's famous brand product".

The series product development and industrialization of "PA6/PE blended sea island superfine fiber and suede leather" has won the two prize of national science and technology progress, and many products have won the scientific and technological progress award of the China Textile Industry Association, the Shandong science and technology progress award, the national key new products, the national torch plan project and so on.

The company is the vice chairman of China Industrial Textiles Association, the vice president of China Plastics Processing Industry Association, and the key high-tech enterprise of the national Torch Program. It has won the "China industrial textiles industry contribution award" and "Shandong Provincial Light Industry joint system reform and opening up thirty years outstanding contribution award" and other honors.

The whole plate is A, Changyi, plastic manufacturing, chemical raw materials, basic chemical industry.

Two, first day positioning forecast

Century Securities: 21.95-26.93

Haitong Securities: 20.83-23.15

Guotai Junan: 24.65-27.55

Anson Securities: 22.5-28.9

Founder Securities: 26-30

The same big share: a supplier of microfiber leather with outstanding innovation capability

The company's basic situation.

The company is mainly engaged in R & D, production and sales of microfiber PU leather, and is one of the leading domestic microfiber PU leather products. Its products include microfiber substrate, microfiber suede and microfiber smooth leather, which are mainly used in shoes, sofa furniture, automotive interior and seat covers.

The company's ultra microfiber PU leather products are positioned in the middle and high-end, and also have a place in the Japanese market, which represents the highest level of technology in the field of microfiber PU leather.

Microfiber PU leather is the best material to fill the gap between supply and demand of dermis.

Leather products are popular with consumers, but natural leather is restricted by animal husbandry resource bottlenecks and government environmental policies, and its supply is far from enough to meet the demand expansion.

In the three generation of synthetic leather products, microfiber PU leather has the closest hand feel, appearance and microstructure to leather. It is the best choice to replace leather, and has a large market potential in the field of high-end leather products.

The domestic market for microfiber PU leather is large.

In the past 2005-2010 years, the demand for ultra fiber leather has increased from 20 million square meters to 92 million square meters, and the compound growth rate has reached 35.69%, much higher than that of the same period.

Domestic microfiber leather supply is insufficient, and import dependence has reached 47.15% in 2010.

It is expected that the demand for ultra fiber leather in China is expected to remain above 25%, and the demand will exceed 200 million square meters by 2015.

Because of the large capacity investment and high technical difficulty of the microfiber unit, the new capacity is mainly concentrated on large enterprises, and the gap in the domestic market is still large.

Analysis of recruitment projects.

The company raised funds to invest 3 million square meters of eco microfiber and high simulation fabric to expand production scale project, with a total investment of 142 million yuan. It is estimated that the project will be put into operation this year.

In 2011, the company's capacity utilization and production and sales rates were 147.49% and 98.68% respectively, and the utilization rate of the capacity was becoming saturated. The investment projects will ease the pressure of the company's production capacity, thereby satisfying the increase of the company's customer demand.

Earnings forecasts and investment proposals.

Since 2012, domestic demand for synthetic leather has been in the doldrums, and the performance of major synthetic leather listed companies has declined. We expect the company's earnings per share for 2012-2014 years to be 1.16, 1.41 and 1.67 yuan respectively.

Based on the valuation analysis of 4 synthetic leather listed companies in A shares and considering the company's potential for growth in the future, we gave the company 18-20 times dynamic PE in 2012, corresponding reasonable value range of 20.83-23.15 yuan, and recommended an inquiry interval of 18.75-20.83 yuan.

Risk disclosure.

Downstream demand falls risk; industry competition intensifies risk; raw material price fluctuation risk and so on.

(Haitong Securities)

Three, company competitive advantage analysis

1, the company's future look: short-term products: the supply of products in the market is in short supply, and the production line has already been overloaded. With the commissioning of the "3 million square meter ecological ultra-high fiber and high simulation fabric project", the company can ease the bottleneck of the company's capacity and expand its scale. The other side can realize the optimization and upgrading of the product structure, enter the high-end field, expand the product sequence, and further enhance the competitiveness.

Long term perspective: restricted by cost and consumption habits, the proportion of microfiber leather in artificial leather products is usually around 3%. In the future, with the double promotion of alternative consumption upgrading, this proportion is expected to increase significantly.

2, the wide space of microfiber leather comes from substitution effect and consumption upgrading.

1) although natural leather is outstanding in performance, but its output is limited, it is unable to meet the demand of large downstream leather products. It is inevitable to seek for the substitution of natural leather. 2) PVC synthetic leather and ordinary PU leather are widely used as the first generation and second generation products instead of natural leather, but their performance is always far from that of the genuine leather. The superfine fiber leather achieves the most possible simulation of natural leather, the performance is also closest to the real leather, and even some of the properties exceed the natural leather, which represents the upgrading trend of the future replacement field, and the space is very broad.

3, the demand for microfiber PU synthetic leather is booming: the use of microfiber PU synthetic leather in China has increased year by year since 2005, and its growth rate is faster, far exceeding the growth rate of synthetic leather.

In the future, the market demand of synthetic leather in China will continue to increase. However, different types and grades of products will show different trends. The market demand of microfiber synthetic leather will increase rapidly. According to the prediction of Specialized Committee, the synthetic leather of China Plastics Processing Industry Association, in 2012, the output of microfiber PU synthetic leather was 129 million square meters, the growth rate was 17%. In 2013, the output of microfiber PU synthetic leather was 162 million square meters, and the growth rate was 26%. In 2014, the output of microfiber PU synthetic leather was 192 million square meters, and the growth rate was 19%.