1/3'S Small And Medium-Sized Textile And Garment Export Enterprises Are Facing Closure.

"The downward pressure on the economy is increasing", and the 23 executive meeting of the State Council put forward

Put it in a more important position.

Recently, Premier Wen Jiabao put forward steady growth several times on different occasions. In some parts of the country, fine-tuning has been made in real estate regulation policies, and the reserve requirement ratio has been cut down continuously.

Against this background, does the argument of steady growth mean further relaxation of monetary policy and adjustment of real estate regulation policies? Is the macroeconomic policy facing a downward trend under the downward pressure of the economy? Investment, consumption, exports and macroeconomic data have declined significantly, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, credit has been further relaxed, and whether regulation has to be adjusted? Is the macroeconomic policy of steady growth facing a turn?

Li Qun (general manager of Dongguan City Grain Co., Ltd.): Hello, what is the matter with Zhen Rong now?

In the same period: the factory is sold now. (boss) ran away, and the boss did not know where to go.

Li Qun (general manager of Dongguan city rice Clothing Co., Ltd.): the next thing is weaving. Now it may be completely gone. I have known him for many years, and I have known him for 16 years. He used to be one of the three pillars here. I never thought of it.

Li Qun, who is responsible for garment export processing in Dongguan, Guangdong, originally intended to find the owner of this garment factory to help solve the problem of shortage of funds in his own business. Unexpectedly, he did not contact for a month. The clothing factory which had been running for 16 years went bankrupt and closed down.

Reporter: so can you think of your future? Is it also like him?

Li Qun: if we continue to do OEM, though we are still doing more luxury brands, there will be some space, but we will come to them one day. This is also very scary.

Li Qun's experience is only a microcosm of the shrinking export of garment industry this year. According to customs data, in February this year,

Exports fell by 54.87%.

Among them, export clothing and accessories were 5 billion 448 million US dollars, down 15.10% from the same period last year, and the ring ratio decreased by 60.64%.

In this regard, more experts predict that if the export situation does not improve, this year, 1/3's small and medium-sized textile and garment export enterprises are facing closure.

The downward trend is not only the two other carriages driving the economy in the export industry, but also in April, investment and consumption also showed a marked decline. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in April, the total retail sales of social consumer goods totaled 15603 billion yuan, although the nominal growth rate was 14.1%, but the growth rate was the lowest since November 2006. In the first four months, the growth rate of fixed asset investment also hit the lowest level in 10 years.

Recently, Premier Wen Jiabao put forward steady growth in a more important position when he studied in Wuhan, and yesterday's executive meeting of the State Council clearly pointed out that there are still some prominent contradictions and problems in the operation of the domestic economy, especially the downward pressure on the economy, and once again proposed that we should conscientiously carry out the general keynote of the steady progress, correctly handle the relationship between the three stable and fast economic development, adjust the economic structure and manage the inflation expectations, and put the steady growth in a more important position.

The trend of China's economic downturn has accelerated in the two quarter.

First of all, we should understand that the 7.5% proposed in the March government work report is a guiding one, not that China will grow by 7.5% this year.

From past experience, the general government's guiding growth target and actual growth target may be two percentage points worse, so according to our usual normal prediction, this year should be around 9%.

Therefore, the current situation is 8.1% in the first quarter. At the same time, the data coming out in April may be around 7% at normal level, which means that the downward trend of China's economy will accelerate in the two quarter.

At the same time, the two quarter is likely to lower 8%, so 8% in China such an economic and social operation system, it is a very sensitive data.

According to some of our studies, if the economy continues to be below 8%, our fiscal growth will probably be less than 14%, and our unemployment rate will probably increase substantially.

So this will bring pressure to our entire social operation and future economic operation, so this is why the steady growth is now mentioned in a more important position, one is likely to lower the 8%, and the other is the downward pressure is accelerating. This continuous acceleration may bring a lot of burden to the future economic operation and social governance.

The pressure of structural adjustment is increasing. Now we must stabilize the speed of economic operation.

In fact, at the beginning of this year, everyone was prepared for this pressure. Whether above or below, we all knew that the speed should be lowered, but the downward pressure we are talking about now has some variables, and the pressure may increase.

Before the first quarter data came out, some of the organizations and scholars we saw were not so pessimistic in general analysis. They would feel the two quarter would be the end, and then there might be a rebound in the three quarter.

Now that data have been released, many institutions have begun to reduce the two quarter economic growth expectations, indicating that everyone has begun to feel that there are some dangers, and some even say whether they will make a hard landing.

Because we say that now China's speed reduction is like a high speed running car. At this time, stepping on the brakes may be different from the original expectations. It may be a little fierce, and then there is a variable, that is, the impact of foreign trade is actually a lot of uncertainty from the outside.

Maybe there are some pitfalls on the road. At this point, if you slow down a bit, there may be some danger.

At this time, after lowering the speed, we need to change the structure, but we need to change lanes. But now that our cars are starting to shake, the pressure of structural adjustment is starting to increase.

We feel that we may have to stabilize this speed now.

The ultimate goal of the central bank is the inflation rate.

I have repeatedly stressed that the reserve requirement ratio is no matter whether it is raised or lowered. It has nothing to do with the tightness of monetary policy. It is a means for the central bank to regulate and control. Under the condition of steady growth now, I do not think that the central bank will introduce the situation of credit as the amount of credit in 2009.

Therefore, we should not pay attention to the increase and reduction of the deposit reserve ratio. We should look at the ultimate goal of the central bank, that is, its intermediate target is not the ultimate goal, the ultimate goal is the inflation rate, and its intermediary goal is the growth of M2 and the regulation of credit.

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We need to expand domestic demand to counteract the pressure of external environment on us.

The core meaning of "stability" is to keep the growth rate from going down, and to guarantee the relative balance between our total demand and total supply in the current eight point range. This is a core of it.

At present, we can see that the external environment is continuing to ferment. The debt problem of Greece has caused some turbulence in Europe as a whole, and there are some variables in the international capital market.

The pressure of capital flight will also exist in China, and the probability of a substantial rise in external demand is basically absent.

We need to have some stability and even the idea of hedging the external environment for other sources of growth. Therefore, one of its core is that we must stabilize domestic demand and even expand domestic demand to eliminate the pressure on the external environment.

Steady growth is confidence first.

The stability of the whole macro level is to stabilize our economy and avoid a large downturn and recession.

I believe that confidence is the key to achieving this.

We have made it very clear that private investment should be encouraged to participate in the construction of railways, municipal services, energy, telecommunications, education and medical care.

How can we make everyone have a stable confidence? For example, we often mentioned that there were 36 articles in 2005, which encouraged the private sector to enter monopolies, and there was a new 36 in 2010. But so far, the details of the new 36 have not yet appeared. Premier Wen has asked for the implementation of the new 36 rules in the first half of this year.

For many private economy people, I recently went to Wenzhou to meet some private economy people. They are rich and have to invest in these fields. But now I feel as if you are in a recession, and now I may fall, so I need to help you. I need to intervene at this time.

So he is worried about whether this is a long-term policy in the future.

Regarding the real estate industry, this time mentioned that stabilizing and strictly implementing the regulation and control policies of the real estate market. In the past two years, the two years have been regulated for the past two years. In the past, we have been insisting on unswervingly unswervingly. This time, some real estate developers have interpreted it as "stable and strict implementation".

So the real estate sector will have some positive impact on them.

Maybe we feel that regulation will not waver in policy, but there may be some fine-tuning in it, such as relaxing some real needs.

Reasonable rigid demand will be released appropriately.

Although many data in the two quarter are not very good, but I think in a further process of inventory, in the future, with the increase of inventory, some data will obviously improve.

We still believe that the two quarter's economic growth will be at the bottom, and then gradually stabilize. After the three quarter, we should say that the possibility of steady economic growth is still relatively large.

Under such circumstances, the whole regulation should be just a tone of pre fine-tuning. The focal point of the policy is to expand domestic demand, and expand domestic demand with investment and consumption in two aspects.

This is mainly to rely on finance, industry or even some appropriate adjustments in the middle part of the real estate policy, such as the first suite or the concept of appropriate expansion of a suite, a reasonable rigid demand is properly released.

Orders are difficult to receive and funds are difficult to borrow. Small and micro enterprises are facing pressure to survive.

What is steady growth? How should it be stable?

A series of hedging measures should be adopted to alleviate the three major problems of SMEs.

In fact, the state has promulgated a series of policies around the small and medium-sized enterprises. The first thing to solve is the difficulty of financing. The second is the decline of demand and the decline of orders; the third is the problem of deterioration of costs and business environment.

We should see that when the economy is down, the impact on SMEs will be more severe than that of big enterprises. Therefore, it is necessary for the government to take a series of hedging measures to alleviate their three major problems. It is necessary to prevent the occurrence of a downward slide or even a large area of closure. This is not only an economic issue, but also a social and political issue.

There are three things we can do: first, increase the directional credit of small and medium-sized enterprises. In fact, the major commercial banks are doing so, and have adopted a series of innovative ways.

Second, how can the overall demand be not drastically declined, especially for some export-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises, such as some textile and garment enterprises, because they are largely external orders, and now they are in a big decline.

What we often talk about is that the river is full of water and small rivers. Therefore, we maintain relative continuity and stability in some large projects and large investments, which will play a certain role in stabilizing some orders and demands of small and medium-sized enterprises.

Third, the cost we speak of, the country should indeed actively introduce some measures to reduce burdens.

This burden includes the cost of capital that we talked about, so some of your fees may be regulated or reduced. Second, some tax issues, the prime minister also talked about the intensity and scope of the pilot project for VAT expansion.

Now we are talking about a regional economic and macroeconomic growth, which has many uncertainties.

Therefore, when a government quantifies its tax revenue, it will lead to many irregularities.

For example, in 2009, the relative pressure of our economic downturn was quite large, and the pressure of financial downturn was very great.

As a result, our normal tax revenue growth is relatively weak. Many of our local governments are making an issue on non tax revenue.

As a result, the tax burden of many small and medium-sized enterprises has increased during the period of economic downturn and even more difficult.

Therefore, we need to really implement these measures of steady growth mentioned by the Central Committee. It needs to regulate some behaviors of our local governments, and we need to take some technical actions in many aspects, rather than let many of our documents be simply a form of official documents.

Tax cuts should really burden small and medium-sized enterprises.

The face of small and medium-sized enterprises is too wide, more than 90% of the total amount of enterprises, 60% of the GDP, and more than 80% of the urban employment.

To a certain extent, if we want to let the economy burn up, let small and medium-sized enterprises rise up, but how to make it burn up is a technological activity.

Tax cuts should really make them lighter.

Recently, there are some news that worries me very much. For example, there are some tax bureaus in Jiangxi and small businesses that I have to pay taxes. Whether you have any business income or not, I have to pay in advance. Then, in some places in Hunan, if you get the tax control machine, you will have to pay 600 yuan tax every month. Because the local government has begun to reduce revenue in the land dependent finance after the real estate regulation, so they have to find a way.

Now, in many parts of the financial sector or tax departments, their goal is to fight several major battles. For example, the goal of many prefecture level cities at the beginning of the year is "revenue growth of 50%", which are likely to fall on SMEs.

We will avoid repeating the 4 trillion mistakes of 2008.

Recently, many people have said whether this round of policy is another round of stimulus policy. Is it a bit like 2008? I think we need to sort out the past policies, such as 4 trillion in 2008, what kind of experience we can have in the future, and what lessons we have learned, and we will avoid repeating the same mistakes at this stage.

We should recombing some policies of the past, including real estate regulation, and then make a very comprehensive judgement.

For the private sector to enter the industry with high income and administrative monopoly.

At present, in terms of steady growth, it should be said that the policy aspect it promulgated is still relatively wide.

For example, first of all, we need to introduce a new round of household appliances to the countryside in the expansion of consumption. At the same time, we need to explore some new measures for building materials to the countryside, so as to promote our consumption promotion.

The second is investment, on the one hand, increase investment in investment, so that many of the construction projects and some large-scale key projects and "12th Five-Year" plan can run normally.

Another important thing is that we need to open a word, that is, we must enter into a number of new industries with high income and administrative monopoly for a lot of private economy.