A Brief Analysis Of The Economic Operation Of The Silk Industry In The First Quarter Of This Year

In April 2011, Cocoon filament After a record high price, there was a rapid downward trend. However, since the beginning of last September, the National Cocoon Silk office has made the public confidence in the market.

Main indicators slow down

Output of major products increased slightly.

In 2012 1~3, according to statistics from National Bureau of statistics on 351 reeling silk spinning enterprises above Designated Size, the output of silk was 27130 tons, an increase of 13.64% over the same period last year, of which 36 spun silk enterprises produced 3628 tons, down 13.56% compared to the same period last year. The production of silk fabrics in 256 weaving enterprises was 175 million 510 thousand meters, up 11.80% over the same period last year.

Industrial main economic indicators slow down

According to statistics from the National Bureau of statistics on 946 Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size silk spinning and finishing, the total industrial output value of 1~3 was 24 billion 762 million yuan, up 16.2% over the same period last year, and sales value was 23 billion 914 million yuan, up 14.84% over the same period last year. The main business income was 20 billion 550 million yuan, up 15.2% over the same period last year. The profit was 864 million yuan, an increase of 14.24% over the same period. In November 2011, the growth of gross output value and sales value of silk industry began to decline. As of March this year, its growth rate dropped by 10.96 and 11.53 percentage points respectively compared with October last year (see chart 1), and the industrial economic growth rate slowed down significantly. Profit growth comparison of sub sectors (see Figure two).

In addition, from other economic indicators, the total loss of loss making enterprises in the 1~3 silk textile and finishing industry reached 162 million yuan, an increase of 188.51% over the same period last year, and the inventory of enterprises increased by 10 billion 789 million yuan, an increase of 14.03% compared with the same period last year. The operating expenses of enterprises increased by 12.08% compared with the same period last year, and the management fees increased by 11.47% compared with the same period last year. The financial expenses increased by 18.59% over the same period, and the interest expense increased 22.92% over the same period. We can see that production and sales are not smooth, inventory is increasing, and all kinds of costs are rising sharply, resulting in a significant impact on the profits of the industry.

Export trade has declined in all directions.

According to Customs Statistics (see chart three), 1~3 months. Real silk Merchandise exports were US $762 million, down 10.08% from the same period last year. The export of silk products decreased by 4.99% compared with that of the same period last year, and the export price was reduced by 4.99%. The export price decreased by 14.17% compared to the same period last year, and the unit price decreased by 9.66% over the same period last year. The export volume of raw silk was 1466.5, up 10.69% over the same period last year, and the amount of silk exports decreased by 4.43%. The export volume of silk silk was 46 million 257 thousand meters, which was lower than that of the previous year. The amount was $3891, down from the same period last year, and the unit price increased.

Silk exports in the first quarter showed the following characteristics:

The export volume of major commodities decreased. The export volume of raw materials such as silk and silk fabrics decreased by 14.17% and 1.01% respectively (see Table 1). The export volume of silk garments decreased by 9.46% compared with the same period last year. All the decrease in export volume showed that the export situation of silk silk exports was rather severe in the first quarter.

The export volume of silk garments increased, the amount decreased and the price dropped. In 2012 1~3, the export volume of silk garments continued to maintain a positive growth since the beginning of last year (see chart four), but the export volume of knitted underwear and other small items still occupied the mainstream of the total silk clothing. Although the export volume of knitted garments increased by 21.05%, its contribution to the total export volume of silk garments was very limited. Compared with the lower prices last year, the average price of real silk clothing exports fell by 17.4% this year (see chart five), indicating that the rise in raw material prices has not been able to effectively deliver downstream industries. In addition, as silk clothing and goods accounted for 49% of the total export volume of silk products, the negative growth of its export volume in March was an important reason for the decline in the export of silk products in the first quarter.

The export of silk fabrics has a large fluctuation. From the 1~3 month export data, the export volume increased by 7.33% in January compared with 2011 December, but in February, it dropped by 50.3% compared with January and 68.42% in March March. Affected by the seasonal factors of Spring Festival holidays in China, the fluctuation of silk export is relatively large.

Exports of major provinces and cities declined as a whole. From the top ten list of export provinces and cities, the top five silk export traditions were 1~3 months: Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shanghai and other four provinces and cities all showed a decline, of which Guangdong dropped the largest, reaching 21.71%, and Sichuan only increased slightly. The total exports of five provinces and municipalities amounted to US $638 million, accounting for 83.82% of the total export volume of the country. Heilongjiang province has the largest increase, reaching 113.54%, becoming a new highlight of silk export this year.

The export of the main export market has declined across the board. From the perspective of the export volume of the main export market (see table two), the traditional main selling market of silk products is: the United States, India, Italy and Japan fell by 12.73%, 18.95%, 20.23% and 12.67%, respectively, and the overall downward trend was obvious. Only Hongkong, China achieved 12.73% growth. Exports to Korea are basically flat, and Pakistan's exports to emerging markets still maintain a strong growth momentum of 38.14%. The total export volume of the four countries, including the United States, India, Italy and Japan, accounts for 49.83% of the total export volume of the country. Affected by the continuous economic downturn in these countries, the consumption expenditure of the residents has declined, and the demand for high-end consumer goods such as silk has also decreased.

The price of cocoon silk is basically stable.

In April 2011, after a record high price of cocoon silk, there was a rapid downward trend. However, since the early opening of the National Cocoon silk factory in early September last year, market confidence has been remarkably stable. Between last October and April this year, the futures prices of dry cocoon and raw silk (3A class) were relatively stable, with a fluctuation of about 10%.

Five factors affect the operation of the industry

Overall, the economic growth rate of the silk industry in the first quarter of 2012 has obviously slowed down, but the overall operation is basically stable. At present, the factors that affect the economic operation of the industry are as follows:

First, the reduction of international market demand. silk Export growth. Since the beginning of this year, the instability and uncertainty of economic recovery in the world have increased, especially the European debt crisis. As the main body of the international market, the recovery of the developed economies such as the United States and Europe is weak, the unemployment rate remains high, and consumer confidence is low. This directly restricts the recovery of the consumption demand of China's real silk products in the international market.

Two, the RMB exchange rate fluctuates frequently, increasing the risk of foreign exchange settlement. Affected by the high risk of international capital and the expected decline in the dollar's further easing of quantitative easing, the appreciation pressure of RMB against the US dollar has eased this year, and the rate of unilateral appreciation has slowed down, but the two-way fluctuation of exchange rate will become the norm. With the expansion of the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, it means that an export order signed at a certain time may cause additional losses due to the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, which is bound to bring greater risks to the long-term orders signed by the enterprises.

The three is the rising labor costs everywhere, squeezing the limited profit margins of enterprises. In addition to the steady rise in coal, electricity, oil, spanportation and other energy prices, the wages of migrant workers are rising every year because of the gradual narrowing of the domestic and rural differences. According to the enterprises in the coastal areas such as Jiang and Zhejiang, more than 80% of this year's enterprises have adopted the way of raising wages 15~20% to retain front-line workers. Although the employment of silk enterprises was basically normal in the first quarter, there was no "labor shortage" phenomenon in previous years. However, due to frequent turnover of workers, the management became more difficult, which affected the normal production of enterprises.

Four is the high cost of financing, directly increasing the financial burden of enterprises. Since 2012, despite the loosening of bank credit policies, most of the financing channels for small and medium sized silk enterprises are still not smooth enough to be supported by bank credit. Enterprises that have been supported by credit have to face up to the problem of floating interest rate, acceptance of bills of exchange, difficulty in obtaining loans in full and short loan period. The interest rate that enterprises ultimately bear is generally 10%~30% higher than the benchmark interest rate.

Five, the growth of raw material production is limited, and the risk of cocoon silk "price upside down" increases. The price of cocoon silk dropped sharply in 2011, which made the material inventory of the enterprise devalue rapidly and some enterprises suffered serious losses. In the spring of 2012, due to the climate abnormality in main producing areas such as Guangxi, cocoon production was basically the same as that of last year, while the demand for silkworm cocoon replenishment in silk reeling enterprises increased greatly in 5~6 months. Once the export prices of raw silk, satin and clothing can not rise simultaneously, the "price upside down" of cocoon silk yarn will be staged again, and the risk of enterprise operation will inevitably increase.

The whole year is expected to be "low before and after high".

To sum up, in the first half of 2012, the growth pressure of domestic silk industry increased greatly, and the export situation was grim, and the domestic silk consumption market did not grow rapidly for a short time. The growth rate of the entire silk industry slowed down obviously. However, with the support of the positive policies such as "steady growth", especially with the gradual improvement of the economic environment in the world, the cocoon and silk industry's economic development is expected to be better than the first half of the year, and the trend of slow recovery of the "low before high" is expected throughout the year.