The "Inventory Door" Incident Triggered A New Round Of Discussion Fever In China'S Clothing Industry

Recently, the Chinese clothing industry "

The "door" incident has triggered a new round of discussion fever, from how to form, how much quantity, to how to avoid and solve inventory problems.

I would like to talk about the author's views, and I would like to discuss with you more friends in the industry.

Past,

Just like grain in the barn, there is enough safety.

It is reasonable to say that a good harvest should be joyful, but when the grain reaches a certain level, the new rice becomes a rice, which is originally the food of human beings and becomes the food of lower animals.

Similarly, clothing inventory is also the case, the new money has not yet sold, it has become a season, it can earn money, the result is not necessarily sold at a loss.

On one hand, the inventory problem reflects the mentality of a Chinese people from one extreme to another.

Failure of tracking prediction mechanism

What is the extent of inventory? What is the extent to which a common type of clothing store is 3~5 times the amount of sales, thus ensuring that there are more sizes and styles for consumers to choose and match, and also to ensure the fullness of stores.

Now, some terminal stocks are 7 times as large as 10 times.

This is only terminal inventory, terminal plugging, upstream manufacturers of goods can not go out, the goods backlog to a certain extent, like floods become flood.

Therefore, if we do not open the flood discharge, the consequences will be serious.

Why is inventory so close to losing control? This stems from the failure of tracking and forecasting mechanisms.

So how does this mechanism fail? In most cases, clothing enterprises have a supply chain tracking system from top to bottom. This system can see how much the terminal inventory is and how much it sells, so as to form a prediction mechanism to arrange production and supply, and constantly modify and adjust in the process to achieve the balance between inventory and sales.

The operation of this mechanism has laid a solid foundation for the healthy operation and rapid development of enterprises.

However, when the external environment changed dramatically, the accuracy of the original prediction mechanism was broken. When the enterprises did not rush to revise the system, a large number of stocks had been formed.

Dramatic changes in market conditions

The external environment changes from the past.

In the past 10 years, China

Consumption capacity is increasing, brands are increasing, competition is intensifying, and the market has entered a relatively mature period from the rising period.

The overcapacity of China's textile and garment industry is an indisputable fact that exports of textile and clothing categories account for 20% of the total export volume in the rush hour.

In 2009, with the outbreak of the financial crisis, the domestic economic environment was high and inflation was serious, and the competitiveness of domestic manufacturing costs continued to decline.

Under the background of overproduction, the volume of foreign trade has declined, and the surplus of foreign trade has been pferred to the domestic demand market, resulting in a more brutal competition in the domestic demand market.

Continuous inflation is also accompanied by the phenomenon of consumer contraction. When the market is mature (tends to be saturated), the price of goods rises, the income of consumers is limited, and the purchasing power declines naturally.

This has exacerbated the backlog of clothing industry.

At the same time, international brands attacked the Chinese market aggressively, robbed many consumers of domestic clothing brands, and also brought severe challenges to the growth of domestic clothing brands, which were backward in operation mode (high channel, slow supply), and serious homogenization of products.

In addition, the bubble of commercial real estate has brought heavy burden to the apparel retailing industry, and the profitability has declined.

In addition, online clothing category sales accounted for more than 25%~30% of the total online retail market share, and online clothing sales system had a direct impact on the physical clothing retail system.

Manufacturers' "game" accelerates deterioration

From the earnings data of major garment enterprises in 2011, although the sales volume is still growing, the risk of inventory burden and receivables is still worrying.

Many problems will be exposed after the order meeting.

That is to say, after the order meeting, the order growth is weak, only to find that the market competition is intense, the terminal inventory is huge, the original supply chain system has lost its accuracy and timeliness, and the decision-making has become passive and slow.

Most garment enterprises, especially listed companies, have a leading ERP system to solve the contradiction between supply and marketing.

However, the accuracy of the system is not high, and 100% of the system is almost impermeable to the terminal.

The problem is not whether the system is easy to use or not, nor is it the management consciousness of the enterprise, but rather from the contradiction between the manufacturer (the manufacturer and the retailer).

Mainstream clothing enterprises mostly adopt futures system. If Brand Company sells commodities to channel merchants or retailers, risks will be pferred successfully, and brands will not share risks or risks with retailers.

Moreover, in order to improve the market share, retailers often ask retailers (retailers) to overstock, and retailers can not afford to go forward, so they will fight the idea of information system.

In order not to let Brand Company know the true sales and inventory, retailers selectively make errors in system data, thus forming egoistic evidence.

Manufacturers "game" staged.

When a brand can not judge the data, it is a reason for the retailers to persuade themselves to grow in order to complete the established growth data and induce them to take stock rebate assessment.

The total demand of the market does not increase, and the price and volume change become helpless, and the market deteriorates further.

It is not ruled out that enterprises can get rid of difficulties through this trick, but the surplus of the clothing industry's overall surplus can not be changed in the short term.

The rapid changes in the market environment, the lagging supply chain management and forecasting mechanism, and the lack of scientific and rigorous retailer assessment system have become the common drivers of stock accumulation.

The "inventory door" will become a thing of the past, and the wheels of the years will run through those enterprises that can not be brave enough to explore and innovate in the face of danger.