PTA Midline Is Expected To Bottom Up In The Future

The PTA price rises sharply after 7000 straight line consolidation.

at present

Still in the bottom stage, the midline is likely to rebound.

In mid June, when the PTA price hit a new low for the year, it was briefly consolidated in the 7000 line, followed by a higher oscillation.

The author believes that PTA is still at the bottom stage, and the midline is likely to rebound.

Whether raw materials can be stabilized is the key.

From the end of May to the beginning of June, the price of PTA fell from 8000 to less than 7000, showing a free fall trend. The main reason is that the price of raw materials PX has weakened and PTA has lost the cost support.

Recently, PX prices showed signs of a rebound, rebounding from the low level of 1180 U.S. dollars / ton to more than 1250 US dollars / ton, which brought impetus to a rebound in the PTA market.

PTA price rebounded from 7000 yuan / ton to 7300 yuan / ton.

The recovery of PX price needs the support of crude oil.

The recent rise in US crude oil demand and a decline in inventories are in favor of a rebound in crude oil prices. However, the position of CFTC fund shows that the number of positions in the fund is declining, indicating that the fund still lacks confidence in the oil market.

At present, crude oil is still in the consolidation stage, and the market outlook is uncertain. Once weakened, it will have some pressure on the PX market.

In addition, due to processing losses, Taiwan and South Korea's producers have cut production by PTA, while the reduction in demand for PX will exacerbate the weakness of the short term PX. Therefore, it is hard to decide whether the raw material market will recover steadily in the short term.

Market confidence needs to be strengthened

Last weekend to the beginning of this week,

Production and marketing has improved significantly, and polyester stocks have dropped for about 3 days. This is a great relief for polyester companies that have been under pressure to keep up with the stock market in the near future.

However, the recent market turnaround is mainly due to the influence of the market buying and selling rather than buying down mentality, rather than the substantial improvement of demand, which is only the restoration of the previous oversold rebound market.

At present, the market mentality is still fragile, and it is easy to be affected by the market environment. Once the price of raw materials is adjusted, the downstream is likely to "hibernate" again.

Later market confidence needs to be further strengthened.

Filament inventory index

In addition to a brief improvement in demand, recent PTA market supply side also has some positive results.

Some of the devices planned for commissioning in June were postponed to July, and the imported PTA had been tight after the previous centralized inventory. Recently, Taiwan and South Korea will reduce the supply of PTA due to overhaul of equipment, which will benefit the domestic market in the near future.

However, due to the expected pressure from China's new production capacity, PTA supply in the short term is not enough to cause panic in the market, and the PTA market mentality is still weak.

Macroeconomic stimulus needs consolidation

The domestic market, due to insufficient domestic economic growth momentum, this year the central bank lowered the deposit reserve rate for the two time, reducing the benchmark interest rate at a time, and the expectation of loose monetary policy is stronger and stronger. In addition, the volume of commercial housing turnover has obviously rebounded in recent years, and prices have also shown signs of stabilization and recovery. The optimism of the market has risen, but the positive role of the policy needs to be gradually permeated.

In the international market, Spain received financial support from the European Union, and Greece's withdrawal from the euro area was greatly reduced. In addition, the BRICs announced the injection of IMF, of which China committed $43 billion, and India, Russia, Brazil and Mexico will contribute about $10 billion respectively. The panic caused by the European debt crisis has temporarily weakened. The Federal Reserve is about to hold a conference on interest rates, which has aroused the expectation of the third round of quantitative easing because of the unsatisfactory employment data of the US in May.

There are some positive signs at home and abroad, but the domestic policy stimulus needs to wait, and the European and American markets are still moody.

In the short term, the rising base of PTA is not solid, mainly because the uncertainty of the raw material market affects the stability of the whole industry chain mentality, and the demand is still difficult to materiality.

But there is a possibility of a rebound in the middle line, because in August

Before the arrival of the peak season, the equipment that the polyester plant plans to put into operation and not yet put into operation may be prepared in advance, and the demand for PTA may increase.

In addition, crude oil may usher in a wave of rebound, favorable policy will also gradually play a role.