What Trend Will The Impermeable Cotton Market Follow?

In the past week,

The market has surged and plummeted, while the domestic spot market has not changed much, and the turnover has been sluggish; the downstream textile market has been sluggish, the order is scarce, and the stock has increased.

Where will the market of the cotton market go next?

The author believes that the cotton price in the late stage lacks a rising base and the probability of maintaining a weaker oscillation is mainly due to the following reasons:

Comparison of cotton price difference between inside and outside

It is not difficult to find out the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices. Under normal circumstances, the domestic cotton price of 80 cents / pound corresponds to 15600 yuan / ton, and the cotton price difference between home and abroad is 0-800 yuan / ton in the first few years, and the price difference has been over 3000 yuan / ton.

Judging from the general law of market economy, the gradual narrowing of the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is a major trend. The main ways to return the price differentials are as follows: first, the external cotton is not rising and the national cotton is falling; this way is very frightening, which means that the price of Zheng Mian futures is far from the end, and the pressure of basic pressure leads to the possibility of such a situation being relatively large. The other is that the national cotton is not rising or rising, and cotton is catching up closely, but it needs the coordination of policy regulation and environment.

National policy orientation

Cotton as a strategic material, the state must safeguard the stability and development of the industry. The first source of protection is cotton farmers. When the cost of cotton planting and the cost of living increase, cotton prices will hardly fall.

China's small peasant economy can not compare with the ranch economy in the United States. The price of national storage and purchase is set at 20400 yuan / ton, which is based on China's national conditions. But if the market is not strong enough, it is likely that the state will start buying and storing again after October.

Inventory and consumption

There is no need to say more about the relevant data. If we look at bonded warehouses in Tianjin, Qingdao, Lianyungang, Zhangjiagang and so on, we will find that cotton is everywhere, and the storage capacity is very tight. With the reserves of about 4000000 tons, the stock is very abundant.

At present, the operation of the domestic textile industry has not improved, and some textile factories are in a halt or semi shutdown state. Cotton consumption is in the traditional off-season, and cotton consumption is down compared with the same period last year.

Nevertheless, there are still many uncertainties in the weather during the cotton growing season and at home and abroad, which will affect cotton production and consumption.

Here's a look at the next one.

Weak cotton market in the near future

Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the domestic cotton spot market, such as the same period of haze weather generally, the deal is cold and cheerless, there is no market price, the actual market again declined slightly.

Today, China's cotton price index CCIndex328 is 18279 yuan / ton, 46 yuan lower than the 21 before the festival, CCIndex229 level is 19391 yuan / ton, or 35 yuan; CCIndex527 is 16024 yuan / ton, or 22 yuan.

The fall of the No. 22 matchmaking deal and the Zheng cotton futures dropped the pessimistic mood again to the weary spot market, coupled with rainy weather in many areas during the holiday season, which was not conducive to spot trading, resulting in a sharp reduction in the inquiry price of textile enterprises, and the smooth surface of the market, and the actual price was not in the market, and a small number of paction prices fell slightly.

According to Cotlook (Caunt Luke), the 22 spot price quotas for upland cotton continued to plummet. On the same day, Cotlook (FE) was 80 cents / pound, down 4.6 cents from the previous day, and 12923 yuan / ton and 14044 yuan / ton respectively under 1% customs duties and sliding duties, which were lower than today's CCIndex328 level 5356 yuan and 4235 yuan respectively.

Compared with other cotton textile raw materials, today's PET staple price is 9700 yuan / ton, viscose staple fiber is 14650 yuan / ton, which is lower than cotton spot 8579 yuan and 3629 yuan, and yarn price ratio, today KC32 yarn 24608 yuan / ton, higher than CCIndex328 class 6329 yuan.