Crude Oil Dragging PTA To Tighten Up Textile Industry Remains Hidden Danger

Crude oil dragging industry chain PTA faces two bottom searches

Futures fell below 7000 points in mid - month, and there was a brief rebound of nearly 400 points.

However, on the eve of the Dragon Boat Festival, a sharp fall in the sky caused the PTA to be ruthlessly extinguished.

The reason for this is that fragile market confidence and weak fundamentals become

Again, the bottom line.

The European debt crisis has been tested, and the domestic economy has declined.

The European debt crisis has always been the focus of attention.

Greece's general election has settled down, supporting the austerity and the New Democratic Party in the euro area to win parliamentary elections. But after that, bond yields in Italy and Spain have reached record highs, and market anxiety has been rekindled.

Meanwhile, Moodie, an international credit rating agency, announced on 21 that it would lower the credit rating of 15 large banks worldwide.

The expectation of the Fed's interest rate resolution announced that QE3 was expected to fail, and commodities fell again.

Domestic, HSBC China June

The preview value is 48.1, the lowest in nearly 7 months, exacerbating the market's concern about the sharp slowdown in domestic economic growth.

Among them, the new export orders hit the biggest decline since March 2009, indicating that the external demand situation is grim.

The internal and external interests are all in force, and the commodity market is under pressure.

Crude oil dragged down the industrial chain, PX has not yet stabilized

Crude oil, as the source of the PTA industry chain, is an important factor affecting the decline of PTA.

PX, as the raw material of PTA, directly promoted the weakening of PTA.

Since May, crude oil prices have plummeted, and they have broken $100, $90 and $80 in three successive lines.

At the same time, the price of PX is even breaking four integer passes, from 1500 US dollars / ton up to 1180 US dollars / ton.

Due to a large decline, PX recently rebounded to $1250 / ton, ahead of PTA and its downstream products, but it is still hard to say.

On the one hand, the rebound of PX is a technical rebound, and there is no substantial improvement in demand. On the other hand, the price difference between PX and naphtha is widening, and the recovery of PX profits has also suppressed its further rebound.

With the crude oil down again, PX prices continue to fall back is inevitable.

Terminal demand is weak, downstream start-up downturn

The decline of domestic and foreign economy has a direct impact on the global consumption capacity. The textile industry as a closely related industry has been greatly affected.

Lack of terminal demand is one of the causes of PTA's weakness. This year's peak season from 4 to May is a typical example.

At present, it is in the off-season, and the demand downturn is more obvious.

Data show that the textile industry's demand both from home and abroad this year is not optimistic from 1 to May this year.

On the export side, from 1 to May, China

The total export volume was 90 billion 642 million US dollars, up 2% over the same period last year. Compared with the previous years, the growth rate has dropped sharply.

On the domestic side, in May, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles in the enterprises above designated size were 72 billion yuan, an increase of 19% over the same period last year, down 0.4 percentage points from April.

The retail sales of 50 key large retail enterprises increased by 10.3% compared to the same period last year, and the growth rate also dropped significantly compared with 14.6% in April.

Since June, most of the stock of polyester products has hit a new high during the year. The rate of production and marketing is unstable. Occasionally, there is a pulse high production and marketing. However, there is a lack of continuity and continuous inventory backlog.

At present, the operating rate of polyester enterprises is near 83%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has been in the vicinity of 50% for more than half a month. The load of Guangdong round machine has dropped from 61% at the beginning of the month to the current 40%.

At present, PTA is still under dual pressure from the macro and industrial sectors. The 7000 point is at stake and the short kinetic energy will continue to be released.

Market stability still needs policy surface to relax and industry to continue to stock.

Crude oil continues to fall, PTA holding a blank mentality

Zhengzhou PTA futures opened on the 25 day and rebounded on the 7110 line.

The main 1209 contract was 7074 yuan / ton, or 42 yuan.

Europe's 130 billion euro stimulus plan has had a positive impact on the market, and oil has fallen below $80.

At present, the operating rate of polyester enterprises has been in the vicinity of 83% for a long time, reflecting the great hidden danger of the textile industry at this stage.

The recent PTA spot price difference, the market atmosphere is light.

The futures market is also fierce in the long and short contest. It seems that the market has great divergence on the future trend.

It is suggested that PTA hold the idea of partial air concussion.

Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) continued to decline on Monday, in the wake of lingering macroeconomic worries and the euro zone crisis.

NYMEX8 crude oil futures fell 55 cents to $79.21 a barrel.

On the news side, Spain formally proposed to the euro area on Monday to inform the 100 billion euro bank recapitalization loan, saying that the final size of the bailout may be determined later, and Cyprus has joined the list of countries seeking financial assistance for the European financial stability instruments.

In addition, the market side forced the Gulf refinery to shut down 608025 barrels of oil and 1 billion 560 million cubic feet of natural gas due to the tropical storm DEBBY.

Downstream market, downstream manufacturers in North China, the price is about 7250 yuan / ton, the actual negotiating price of 7300 yuan / ton.

China Eastern inland trade downstream delivery price of 7150 yuan / ton, the actual negotiating price in the vicinity of 7150-7200 yuan / ton.

The import spot market Taiwan goods source quoted price 940 dollar / ton nearby, the downstream manufacturer delivers the price to be 925-930 yuan / ton, the actual discussion price is in 930-935 US dollars / ton.

The price of the Korean offer is about $930 / ton, and the downstream manufacturer's delivery price is around 915 yuan / ton. The actual price is about 920 yuan / ton.