The Performance Of Textile And Clothing May Be Slightly Weaker, The Growth Rate Will Be Affected In The Second Half Year.

Rating changes: maintenance (first time) rating

Consumption continues to decline and corporate profits decline.

China

The production situation of the industry in May was relatively stable, and the export situation was generally not good, but the export situation of the largest export area improved slightly.

In May, the total retail sales of social consumer goods amounted to 1 trillion and 671 billion 480 million yuan, up 13.80% from the same period last year, and the growth rate continued to decrease, which is similar to the lowest level in the financial crisis.

But with the direct stimulation of consumption policy and the indirect stimulation of monetary policy, the possibility of a sharp decline in consumption growth is unlikely.

Price index: production side, May textile industry PPI -4.61, slightly higher than the previous month; textile and clothing shoes and hats PPI is 2.41, continue to fall; sales terminal, textile terminal retail price index decreased rapidly with the cost of production side, and clothing shoes and hats terminal retail price index has dropped from high.

The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of main business revenue, operating cost and operating profit of textile enterprises has decreased significantly since 2011, and the growth of operating income in May is slower than that before April.

The growth rate of profits has dropped sharply, and now it is close to zero growth. In May, the total profit of the industry was 2.8% year-on-year, much lower than that of the past.

The industrial sales value and delivery value of textile enterprises also showed an equal decline, especially the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of export delivery value is approaching the critical point, indicating that the export situation is worsening, and domestic production and sales are better than exports, but the trend is also continuing to deteriorate.

Market trend

In June, the Shanghai Composite Index [2181.30 -0.19%] fell 6.19%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 6.48%, Shen Wan textile

Industry fell 5.62%, Shen Wan textile manufacturing industry index fell 8.41%, shwan clothing home textile industry index fell 3.40%.

The overall trend of the industry is similar to that of the market, and the textile manufacturing industry has declined a lot.

At the end of 6, the valuation of textile and garment industry was 23.87 times, the value of textile manufacturing industry was 27.18 times, the value of apparel textile industry was 22.42 times, and the valuation was slightly higher than that of the previous month.

Investment strategy

As of June, industry data showed that the textile and garment industry was relatively stable in production, and the overall situation of exports was not good, but the export situation of the largest export areas improved slightly, consumer data did not improve, and the profitability of the textile industry continued to decline.

The textile manufacturing industry is more affected by the export environment, the order is less profitable, the short-term trend has not been good; the apparel home textile industry's performance in the first half of the year has mostly been locked from the order of last year, and the growth is still relatively high, but the sales terminal data in the first half of the year are not ideal.

The backlog will inevitably affect the order meeting in the second half of the year, which will affect the growth rate in the second half and next year.

Maintain the "neutral" rating of the textile and garment industry as a whole.

We are optimistic about the emerging industries, as well as the large stocks with a small change in the early stage.

Continue to be optimistic about business men's clothing, fashion and leisure leading enterprises, recommend Pathfinder [19.36 -0.97%], seven wolves, nine herd Wang [27.25 0.18%] and search special [25.00 -1.03%].