China'S Import Tax Rebate For Big Deceleration Is Hard To Come Out Again.

China's June

It has expanded to $31 billion 700 million, the highest in three and a half years.

The slowdown in imports confirms the reality of China's economic slowdown, and the rebound in exports continued in May to June, which resulted in a huge trade surplus exceeding market expectations.

According to sources, Ministry of Commerce, customs and other ministries recently began to investigate the foreign trade situation frequently, and the research storm began to recur in the 2008 financial crisis.

The basic judgment of investigation is: export

The profit margin is very low, the traditional industry situation is particularly grim, the external demand is weak, the demand of the European Union and India, Brazil and other emerging economies in the traditional market has declined significantly, but the share of Chinese products in the US market has increased slightly in the first half of the year (from 17% last year to 17.6%), and trade conditions such as customs clearance and commodity inspection need to be further improved.

He also revealed that from the recent discussions, trade policy will still be based on basic stability and closely related to exports.

The policy has been discussed in the decision-making level before and after April this year, but it is concluded that the trade situation still needs to be observed. He believes that unless the external environment deteriorates obviously, this killer measure will not be introduced again.

According to the recent discussions with key enterprises, the trade situation of China is worse than that of the spring fair. He said that after deducting price factors, the number of electromechanical exports in China hardly increased.

Electromechanical products are the largest category of China's export commodities. After the spring and autumn rendezvous, the Research Report of mechanical and electrical chambers is expected to increase by 12%.

Uncertain export rebounded

Statistics released by the customs in July 10th showed that in June, China exported 180 billion 210 million US dollars, an increase of 11.3% over the same period last year, imports of US $148 billion 480 million, an increase of 6.3%, a trade surplus of US $31 billion 730 million and an expansion of 42.9%.

China's trade data in May had rebounded sharply. In May, exports increased by 15.3% and imports increased by 12.7%. This figure is much higher than market expectations, and also does not match the severe economic situation at home and abroad.

Zhang Yongjun, a researcher at China International Economic Exchange Center, said that the acceleration of the export tax rebate process in the first few months may be an important reason for the rebound in exports in 5 and June.

According to the Ministry of finance, the export tax rebate in April increased by nearly 40% over the same period last year.

Huo Jianguo, President of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the export growth in 5 and June has exceeded 10%, which means that exports have been on the path of recovery, but the stability of the recovery is still doubtful.

He said that the internal environment has indeed improved. First, the cost pressures of export enterprises have been significantly relieved. The sharp fall in commodity prices in recent months, the relative low level of domestic inflation and the stabilization of labor prices have relieved the cost pressures of exporters. Two, the funds have been relaxed, and this year, the credit trade bias and export credit insurance policies have been relieving the exporters' cash position.

However, the recovery of external demand is still very variable.

Huo Jianguo said that the European economy is difficult to improve in the second half of the year, and the negative growth is expected in the three quarter. The recovery of the US economy is also obviously weaker than the market forecast. The unemployment rate in the two quarter is higher than that in the first quarter. The growth rate of the emerging markets such as India and Brazil has also dropped markedly.

"The situation of external demand in the second half of this year will be more complicated."

He said.

Customs statistics show that China's exports to the EU decreased by 0.8% in the first half of this year, while exports to the United States increased by 13.6% and exports to Japan increased by 8.1%.

At the end of June, the national customs conducted a questionnaire survey of 1856 export sample enterprises, involving enterprise orders, confidence, cost and so on.

The questionnaire survey shows that in June, China's export manager index was 36.2, of which the new export orders index was 40.1, the export confidence index was 41, and the export enterprise comprehensive cost index was 14.9, all located below 50 of the ups and downs line.

The two indicators of actual utilization of foreign capital and processing trade import prove that the follow-up export situation is not good.

In 1-5 months, China's actual use of foreign capital was US $47 billion 110 million, down 1.91% from the same period last year.

In the month of May, the amount of foreign capital actually used was 9 billion 229 million US dollars, up 0.05% over the same period last year.

Nearly half of China's trade volume in the first half of 1 trillion and 800 billion was contributed by foreign capital.

In June, China's imports increased by only 6.3%, showing a big slowdown, while processing trade imports accounted for nearly half of China's imports.

This also means that the slowdown in processing trade imports will generally be reflected in exports in 2-3 months.

Chen Haiming, general manager of China's largest refrigerator exporter Xingxing Group Foreign Trade Corporation, told reporters that judging from the situation of hand orders, the company's export deceleration will be realized in August.

In 1-6 months, the company's exports increased by 13%, mostly from the growth of the US market, and the European market still fell by more than 30%.

But since the beginning of last month, the order of American customers has also been cautious, waiting for the situation to be clear.

Import deceleration

After a short-lived rebound in May, China's imports fell again in June.

In the first half of this year, China's imports increased by only 6.7% over the same period last year.

Zhang Yongjun said that the weakness of imports is related to the slow demand of domestic economic slowdown, which will directly lead to a slowdown in imports.

Another factor is the sharp fall in commodity prices in recent months, which has led to an increase in imports.

He believes that in the second half of this year, China's imports will hardly be substantially improved.

In the market, the growth in fixed assets investment in 1-6 months is likely to fall by 20%.

Nie Wen, Macro Analyst of Warburg trust, said that the NDRC is speeding up the process of approving the project, and can see whether domestic investment demand can be boosted. If it fails to drive, imports in the second half of the year will still be worrisome, and the trade surplus will remain at a relatively high level, that is, the monthly surplus will be around $20 billion.

A large coal trader in Guangdong said that Chinese traders imported imported steam coal in 5 and June this year. However, the sharp slowdown in domestic economy dragged down the consumption of coal in power plants and steel mills. The power coal in two domestic and foreign markets had fallen by more than 20%.

Against this background, traders not only stopped importing imported coal, but also delayed delivery of imported coal, which had been signed earlier.

According to the foregoing sources, there is still a lot of variation in the total volume of trade in the whole year. The Ministry of Commerce has begun to adjust the import and export volume of the whole year. When the Canton Fair was held in April, the Ministry of Commerce forecast that the import and export volume of the whole year will grow by 10%, of which 8% will increase by 8% and imports will grow by 12%.

However, in recent years, the total target of 10% import and export volume has not changed, but the export target has been raised to about 12%, and the import target has been reduced to about 8%.

In the first half of this year, China's trade grew by 8%.

Among them, exports grew by 9.2%, imports increased by 6.7%, and trade surplus reached 68 billion 920 million US dollars, expanding by 56.4%.