UK'S Euro Referendum Data Become "Black Friday" In Global Stock Market

British referendum results show that 51.9% of the British people agree to leave the EU.

This result shocked the whole world.

This weekend, the British European event packed with foreign media and exploded the circle of friends.

All kinds of comments vary widely.

However, the most surprising comment is from an old man's mouth. Greenspan, former Federal Reserve Chairman, said in a press statement: "Britain will usher in a period of even worse than the darkest days of October 1987."

Greenspan said Britain's departure from Europe is corrosive and will not disappear.

Britain's most direct influence on Europe is Britain and the European Union.

The United Kingdom and the European Union were both defeated in this incident.

In Gerry Spann's eyes, the reason why October 1987 was so dark was that there was a huge stock market crash that originated in the United States and shook the world.

In October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones index of the New York stock market plummeted 508.32 points, or 22.62%, and if the abstract index was converted into currency, the stock market lost the market value of US $500 billion on that day.

This figure is almost equivalent to 1/8 of the US gross domestic product.

This fall has spread all over the world, including France, Japan and Belgium.

Brazil, Mexico and so on, the stock market at least fell more than 10%, the Hongkong stock market fell more than 30%, had been forced to stop for 4 days.

In June 24, 2016, the day when Britain released the EU referendum data was officially released, it has also become the world.

The "black Friday" is a chicken market in capital markets.

London stock market fell 3.15%, while French and German stock markets fell 8% and 6.8% respectively. The US Dow Jones index fell 3.39%, the most severe reaction. The Nikkei index fell by more than 8%.

What is worse is the foreign exchange market. The pound and the euro have suffered an unprecedented huge sell-off and depreciated sharply.

The author believes that Greenspan's comments are not unreasonable, which is mainly for the global capital market. However, the United Kingdom has been unable to cope with the stock market crash in 1987, and the European departure event is more complex and far-reaching. It not only involves the economy, but also profoundly affects the global political, economic and trade and even military pattern.

Therefore, we should not compare the decline of the global stock market on Friday with the stock market crash of October 1987, but we should do more from it.

From the point of view, we will discuss the event of Britain's de Europe.

Britain's disengagement from Europe can, of course, make it no longer bear the economic burden of the poor countries in the European Union. It can make it a spectator with both hands in the face of the "refugee tide" of the European Union, and also enable it to gain full autonomy in trade and foreign affairs.

However, as Britain joins the European Union for decades, the economic and trade relations between the UK and the EU have me and I have you. It is very complicated. Once it is separated, it will inevitably hurt and hurt the flesh and the damage to the economy is inevitable.

Just after the announcement of the referendum results, Moodie lowered the credit rating of the United Kingdom and lowered the outlook for the pound from stable to negative.

In the international arena, Britain can not avoid Europe by giving the UK a negative image of unwilling to help poor countries, refusing to accept responsibility and being uncooperative in international cooperation.

After breaking up with the European Union, Britain's international influence was self imposed.

The more serious injuries lie within Britain.

Britain's referendum dismissing Europe is actually torn itself: first, in Britain, nearly 52% of Optima and nearly 48% of Optima have actually formed a serious division of the nation, and how to bridge differences in the future and unite the whole nation to build their homes together is also a long-term and difficult task for the ruling party.

Second, Scotland, which has voted for the European vote in the referendum, has expressed the desire to stay in Europe. Of course, they do not want to follow Britain off Europe. Now, there are Scotland legislators who want to hold the second referendum on Scotland independence.

In the event of Scotland's independence from Britain, Britain's national strength will undoubtedly be greatly damaged.

London has always been the center of Europe, and it can only be the center of the UK after its departure from Europe.

Britain has signs of fragmentation, and in fact, at least in spirit, Britain has split up.

A divided Britain does not exclude the possibility of becoming a three world country.

It is self-evident that the EU's damage to Europe in Britain is self-evident.

After losing Britain, both economically and diplomatically, the influence of the European Union in the international arena is far less than before.

What is even more frightening is whether Britain's opening of Europe's head will become the first of Domino's collapse. Several countries such as Holland originally had problems with the EU's policies on some issues. Once Holland has held a referendum against Europe, the prospects of the European Union and the euro area will not be imagined.

Britain's European Union has further torn the EU and the euro area's Secret wounds: the unified monetary policy and the different fiscal policies of various countries are difficult to reconcile.

The departure of Britain will force the EU's core national law, Germany and Italy to make up their minds, or to become a truly unified Europe, to set up the EU government, to integrate the fiscal policies of all countries, or to take the two shots one by one.

When will the core countries of the European Union come up with this determination?

In Britain, the biggest winner in Europe is the United States.

The European Union is the largest partner of the United States on the international stage, and also one of its biggest rivals.

The split will undoubtedly enhance the hegemonic position of the United States in the international situation.

The euro was originally established to counteract the hegemony of the US dollar.

From the actual results, though Britain is not a member of the euro zone, Britain has weakened the pound and weakened the euro at the same time.

We can see that during the referendum in Europe, the US dollar index rose from 93 to 95.

It is naturally the Fed's favorite thing to raise without raising interest rates.

The author believes that after the rise of the US dollar, the Fed will not make any further decision to raise interest rates in the short term; after all, the recovery of the US economy is not yet in the period of real need to raise interest rates.

As for China, after Britain's departure from Europe, it should be a passive enhancement of international influence.

Both politically and economically, China is the least affected country in Britain.

The principle of this elimination should also be suitable for the relationship between China and the United Kingdom and the European Union in the changing international pattern.

Britain and the EU should further strengthen their economic and trade ties with China after the event is damaged.

The United Kingdom has always advocated strengthening economic and trade relations with China.

The British economy is based on financial services and the establishment of RMB overseas centers in London is in line with the common interests of China and Britain.

In addition, after the incident, the economic and trade relations between the UK and the EU were more or less shadowed. Britain used to rely on exports to the EU.

The EU has always been an important economic and trade partner of China, and it is in the common interest of both sides to strengthen economic and trade cooperation between China and Europe.

Germany is the leader of the European Union. It has already become a consensus between the 2020 plan of China's manufacturing industry and 4 of German industrialization. Before long, Malel visited China and reached a number of cooperation agreements. Among them, China and Germany's high-speed rail cooperation to develop the third party market has become an important bright spot.

As for the impact on the A share market, I believe there is no need to worry about Greenspan's remarks.

The global stock market crash in October 1987 was mainly caused by the cumulative increase in stock market in the US and Europe.

Since 1983, the US and European stock markets have been following the rapid growth of their economy, the bull market that has lasted for many years, forming an asset bubble, beating the drum and spreading flowers. When no one takes over, a sharp adjustment is the manifestation of the stock market's internal law.

Now, the US stock market has been in the bull market for many years, and asset prices have also been overestimated. If the US stock market is also in the dark period that Greenspan is worried about, it may also be possible.

The change of risk preference caused by Britain's departure from Europe has led to international capital flowing out of the British stock market and the European stock market.

However, the A share market has undergone a drastic adjustment in 2015. At present, the overall valuation is not high. In addition, the United Kingdom has little impact on China's economy, and the A share market is unlikely to fall sharply.

When the global stock market fell on Friday, the A share market also showed a relative decline.

When international capital flows out of European and American stock markets, is it still a good choice to valuate the A share market with a low valuation?