July 24, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

　 [Hongyuan futures In the systemic market, Zheng cotton is relatively independent.

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20275 yuan / ton; 229 level 19412 yuan / ton; 328 level 18490 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17581 yuan / ton. Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9730 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15050 yuan / ton; C32S price 25380 yuan / ton.

2. domestic spot: 23, domestic cotton spot prices continued to rise slightly, at present, spot prices remain stable, the market is optimistic about the purchase and storage, but Zheng cotton recently rebounded many times, coupled with the downstream textile enterprises shutting down more, the demand is low, so cotton prices rise pressure.

3. cotton imports: on the 23 day, the price of China's main cotton imports rose generally, of which Uzbekistan cotton prices rose the largest. However, due to the high inventory of imported cotton in China's bonded area and the short turnover in recent years, the import price of imported cotton is expected to be limited. In addition, according to the domestic textile factory, cotton yarn imports kept growing in recent months, which is one of the main reasons for the small volume of imported cotton.

4. Cotton Growth: last week (July, 13-19), the main producing areas in the mainland are mainly hot weather. Some areas are sunny and rainy, with plenty of light and suitable soil moisture. The new cotton is growing with gratifying growth. At the moment, cotton is in flower and boll stage, and some cotton plants have peaches at the bottom. Xinjiang area is mainly sunny weather, hail disaster is encountered in some areas, and the situation of new cotton is seriously affected. In July, cotton production is at a critical stage. Cotton producers in various producing areas are stepping up their efforts to prevent and control the field.

5.ICE cotton: Spain may face a comprehensive bailout in July 23rd. The market's worries about the European economic outlook are heating up again, and the US dollar index has risen sharply. In addition, there will be precipitation weather in the US grain producing area. The improvement of growth conditions will bring grain prices down from high. Affected by the above news, ICE futures fell under the pressure of speculative selling, but did not break away from the recent oscillation range.

Summary:

The two major factors that affect domestic cotton prices are demand and policy. There is no substantial change in demand. The reserve cotton business conference of the central storage cotton company once again made clear the policy of open storage and storage of cotton in the new year, so as to boost market confidence. Zheng cotton on the pressure near 19700, there is an important average line support, the midline point of view, Zheng cotton burst pressure is a big probability event. On the macro side, Spain may face a comprehensive bailout, and the market's worries about the European economic outlook are heating up again. However, in view of the deep fall of cotton in the early stage, Zheng cotton's trend is relatively independent.

[MEIKO futures] spot price steady, Zheng cotton range fluctuations

Overnight, Spain may face a comprehensive bailout in July 23rd. The market's worries about the European economic outlook are heating up again, and the US dollar index has risen sharply. In addition, there will be precipitation weather in the US grain producing area. The improvement of growth conditions will bring grain prices down from high. Affected by the above news, ICE futures fell under the pressure of speculative selling, but did not break away from the recent oscillation range.

On the news side, in June 2012, the export volume of South Korean cotton yarn was 4800 tons. Chain growth 32.3%, the highest record in 10 years. The strong demand for China's cotton yarn imports is the main reason for the substantial increase in the export of cotton yarn in South Korea. That month, South Korea's cotton yarn exports to China increased by 79.9% year-on-year. In 2012 1-6, the total volume of cotton exported to China increased by 112.2% over the same period last year. According to Fuzhou four Tong fiber and textile department forecast, in 2012, the share of Korean cotton yarn in the Chinese market is likely to reach 37%.

In the international market, in July 23rd, the price of China's main imports of cotton imports generally rose, of which Uzbekistan cotton prices rose the largest. However, due to the high inventory of imported cotton in China's bonded area and the short turnover in recent years, the import price of imported cotton is expected to be limited. In addition, according to the domestic textile factory, cotton yarn imports kept growing in recent months, which is one of the main reasons for the small volume of imported cotton.

Domestic market, 23, domestic cotton spot prices continue to rise slightly, the current spot prices remain stable, the market is optimistic about the purchase and storage, but Zheng cotton recently rebounded many times, coupled with the downstream textile enterprises shutting down more, the demand is low, so cotton prices rise pressure, time into late July, weather is currently an important factor affecting cotton prices, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the weather. {page_break}

Spot quotation. In July 23rd, the price of C/A cotton in the US was 91.10 (cents / pound). The general port trade delivery price was 15480 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax); the Australian cotton quotation was 95.10; the general port trade port delivery price was 16016 yuan / ton; the Uzbekistan cotton quotation was 94.10, the general port trade delivery price was 15880 yuan / ton; the West African cotton price was 88.10, the general port trade delivery price was 15094 yuan / ton. The national cotton price A index was 19422 yuan / ton, up 5 yuan; the B index was 18502 yuan, up 4 yuan.

Market analysis shows that the increase of cotton yarn imports in recent months is larger, indicating that the traditional consumption of the market is still showing. After all, the price of imported middle products is low, and consumption is still the key factor restricting the uplink of cotton prices, so the height will be limited. The US cotton continued to oscillate sideways, and the 60 day average line was under pressure. Zhengmian 1301 fluctuated in the 19000-19725 interval.

Operation, the 19000-19725 interval concussion, temporarily short trading.

[Huaan futures] weakening of economic environment, Zheng cotton oscillation remains

Key points:

1, Spanish bond yields exceeded 7%, increasing the market's concern over the country's fiscal control capability, and the commodity market was on the decline, especially industrial goods.

2, China's cotton import volume was 475964 tons in June, and no quota did not prevent textile traders from purchasing foreign cotton.

3, the domestic market resources are decreasing, and spot quotes continue to rise slowly, but with cotton enterprises purchasing raw materials, the market is deserted.

External trend: New York July 23rd, cotton futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell on Monday, due to profit making and investor selling, brokers said the four day of trading in the cotton market fell on the first day, due to the fall in the financial and grain markets. Global stock markets were lower and the euro / dollar fell, as markets worried that Spain might need a comprehensive bailout. The December cotton contract fell 0.75 cents, or 1%, to 72.19 cents per pound, and the trading interval was 71.21 -72.90 cents.

Early comment: overnight market, Spanish bond yields rose sharply, increased market concerns about European debt issues, stock market and commodity market fell, and ICE cotton fell. At home, in the absence of further quota issuance and dumping, market resources are decreasing, and spot quotes continue to rise slowly, but textile enterprises are facing double pressures of high cost and difficult product sales. The situation of business difficulty has not improved much, but the new year's purchasing and storage price has strong support for Zheng cotton. On Monday, Spain's fiscal problems sparked market worries. Industrial products led the market to fall. Zheng cotton had no way to get the best of it. The 1301 main contract was reported to be a small Yin line. In the light of the overall situation, Zheng cotton in the current regional pressure is relatively large. At present, futures market CF1209 and matchmaking market MA1209 price difference reached 285 yuan / ton, due to the convenience of delivery warehouses, buying futures trading and matching is purely risk-free arbitrage, and short-term profits are considerable. Relevant enterprises can grasp this arbitrage opportunity. On the operation, Zheng cotton main 1301 contracts continue to be cautious. Stop loss 19300 near the front line.