Domestic Cotton Prices Are Rising Steadily, And International Cotton Prices Are Not Enough To Rebound.

July 16, 2012 ~7 20, domestic spot prices remained stable, zhengcotton futures prices continued to rise, the international cotton prices rebounded slightly, domestic cotton yarn Price Consolidation operation.

Domestic spot prices remained stable. According to the national cotton market monitoring system, as of July 20th, the national cotton picking and sale were basically completed; the cotton processing enterprises' new cotton processing rate (accounted for the proportion of sales) was 99.2%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the sales rate of new cotton (accounting for the proportion of processed products, including storage capacity) was 91.8%, up 7.5 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the processing rate of Xinjiang's new cotton was 99.5%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over the same period, and the sales rate was 94.7%, up 2.5 percentage points from the same period last year.

Domestic spot cotton prices continued to slightly increase slowly, and the price of Zheng cotton futures and matching market continued to rise. In July 20th, the national cotton price B index, representing the average selling price of the standard grade cotton in the mainland, was 18498 yuan / ton, up 31 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 0.2%, down 2573 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 12.2%; the average price of Xinjiang standard lint sale was 18751 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week, down 3198 yuan / ton, or 14.6%. Zhengzhou cotton futures contract settlement price in September 2012 was 18840 yuan / ton, up 95 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 0.5%, down 2530 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 11.8%. The average price of electronic matching September 2012 in the national cotton trading market was 19116 yuan / ton, up 226 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 1.2%, down by 1399 yuan per ton, or 6.8%.

The continued growth of the external grain market continues to drive the rebound in ICE cotton futures prices. In July 20th, the ICE cotton futures contract settlement price in October 2012 was 72.06 cents / pound, up 0.3 cents / pound, or 0.4%, compared with last week. The international cotton index (M), which represents the average price of the Chinese main port on the import cotton, is calculated at 1% tariff. The cost of import of RMB is 13844 yuan / ton, up 280 yuan / ton, or 2.1%, lower than that of the domestic market by 4654 yuan / ton, and the price difference decreased 249 yuan / ton compared with last week. According to the sliding tax, the cost of import is 14775 yuan / ton, up 208 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 1.4% yuan, lower than the 3723 yuan / ton in the domestic market, and the price difference decreased by 177 yuan / ton last week.

Domestic textile market Consolidation Cotton yarn prices are basically stable. In July 20th, the price of 32 cotton combed yarn was 25380 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week, down 4370 yuan / ton, or 14.7%, and polyester staple price 10070 yuan / ton, up 360 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 3.7%, down 2530 yuan / ton, or 20.1%.

After analysis, worries about European debt crisis will heat up, and the rebound power of international cotton prices will not be enough. This week, the finance ministers of the eurozone approved the Spanish banking aid clause with a ceiling of 100 billion euros, but it is still difficult to help Spain improve its credibility in the financial market. In the same week, Spain's 10 - year treasury bond yield soared to 7.32%, a record high. Next week, a delegation of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund will assess the implementation of the second round of Greece's rescue plan. In view of the severe economic recession in Greece, there is still much uncertainty about whether the new government can implement various reform measures. The market's worries about the European debt crisis will rise again. The US Department of Commerce will also announce relevant economic data such as gross domestic product (GDP) in the two quarter of this year. After Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke made clear the US economic recovery in the Congressional monetary policy report, the major financial institutions also generally lowered the US growth forecast for the two quarter, and did not rule out the possibility of the market rekindling the expectation of the Fed's additional easing policy, which would bring some pressure to the US dollar. On the basic side, the hot and dry weather in the Midwest of the United States is still continuing. Under the pressure of reducing production, the prices of agricultural products such as wheat, soybeans and corn will still rise in the short term. But the coming August is the key month for crop growth. If the weather conditions improve, the rising market will continue to be difficult. In summary, the market volatility is likely to be bigger next week. If the supply and demand pattern is difficult to improve, the international cotton price will continue to rebound. The ICE cotton futures price will continue to oscillate.

The policy of purchasing and storage promotes the integration of new and old year, and the domestic cotton price keeps stable operation. This week, according to the national energy administration, the industrial electricity consumption increased by 3.7% in the first half of this year, and the growth rate dropped by 8 percentage points year-on-year. Next week, HSBC will announce the HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index in July. The index is small and medium enterprises, which has been below 50% of the ups and downs for 50% consecutive months. If the index continues downward, the market is expected to intensify the adjustment of macroeconomic policies. On the basic level, the new cotton year is approaching, and the state's unwavering commitment to purchase and storage policy will ensure the smooth integration of new and old cotton in the year. In summary, recent domestic cotton The market is expected to remain stable.