July 25, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20275 yuan / ton; 229 level 19412 yuan / ton; 328 level 18490 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17581 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9730 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15050 yuan / ton; C32S price 25380 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: 24, domestic cotton spot prices continued to rise slightly.

At present, the global cotton is still in a loose supply and demand pattern. Therefore, it is difficult to see a strong rise in cotton prices. Although the state has reiterated the policy of purchasing and storage, the cotton purchase and storage in the new year will take some time. Textile demand has not changed.

3. cotton imports: in July 24th, the price of imported cotton in China's main port declined, of which cotton and Brazil cotton fell more than 1 cents, while other varieties generally fell 0.75 cents.

At present, the supply and demand pattern of the market has not changed. The textile factories have limited production and the supply pressure of port consignment cotton has not been reduced. At the same time, the market is more concerned about the new year's China reserve policy.

4. commercial inventory: the national cotton market monitoring system started a nationwide survey in late June 2012 to early July. It involved more than 100 cotton enterprises and warehouses and bonded warehouses in 15 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions).

The results showed that as of the end of June, the national cotton business inventory was about 1 million 70 thousand tons, and in addition, there were about 800 thousand tons of cotton inventory in the bonded areas without customs clearance.

5.ICE cotton: in July 24th, the US cotton December contract still did not get rid of the interval shock situation. The highest point touched the 60 day moving average, and the lowest point explored the 40 day moving average.

Summary:

The two major factors that affect domestic cotton prices are demand and policy. There is no substantial change in demand.

The reserve cotton business conference of the central storage cotton company once again made clear the policy of open storage and storage of cotton in the new year, so as to boost market confidence.

Zheng cotton on the pressure near 19700, there is an important average line support, the midline point of view, Zheng cotton burst pressure is a big probability event.

On the macro side, Spain may face a comprehensive bailout, and the market's worries about the European economic outlook are heating up again. However, in view of the deep fall of cotton in the early stage, Zheng cotton's trend is relatively independent.

[MEIKO futures] industry fundamentals interlaced with Zheng cotton stage shocks

Overnight, the news of more debt restructuring in Greece will put more pressure on the eurozone in July 24th. In addition, precipitation in the grain production area is expected to trigger a long departure, leading to a drop in grain prices, including soybeans and corn hitting the limit.

ICE cotton was again dragged down by the external market. The late December contract rapid dive led to a decline of more than 100 points.

At present, the price of cotton has yet to shake off the oscillation interval. If there is no good news in the market, cotton prices will test the support of the 40 day moving average.

On the news side, the national cotton market monitoring system launched a special survey nationwide in late June 2012 to early July. It involved more than 100 cotton enterprises and warehouses and bonded warehouses in 15 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions).

The results showed that as of the end of June, the national cotton business inventory was about 1 million 70 thousand tons, and in addition, there were about 800 thousand tons of cotton inventory in the bonded areas without customs clearance.

In the international market, in July 24th, the price of China's main port of import cotton declined, of which cotton and Brazil cotton fell more than 1 cents, while other varieties generally fell 0.75 cents.

At present, the supply and demand pattern of the market has not changed. The textile factories have limited production and the supply pressure of port consignment cotton has not been reduced. At the same time, the market is more concerned about the new year's China reserve policy.

Before the new news comes out, imported cotton will fluctuate mainly along with the external market, and the space for the increase will be limited.

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Domestic market, 24, domestic cotton spot prices continued to rise slightly.

At present, the global cotton is still in a loose supply and demand pattern. Therefore, it is difficult to see a strong rise in cotton prices. Although the state has reiterated the policy of purchasing and storage, the cotton purchase and storage in the new year will take some time. Textile demand has not changed.

Spot quotation, July 24th.

C/A cotton quotation is 90.10 (cent / pound), discount general trade port delivery price 15350 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax), Australia cotton quotation is 93.35, discount general trade port delivery price 15779 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton quotation is 93.35, discount general trade port delivery price 15779 yuan / ton; India cotton quotation is 85.35, discount general trade port delivery price 14751 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index was 19427 yuan / ton, up 5 yuan; the B index was 18511 yuan, up 9 yuan.

Market analysis, the national cotton monitoring center survey data show that the current domestic cotton business inventory and the large number of inventory in the bonded area, plus the middle yarn, cloth link import price advantage, thus pressing on domestic consumption, the cotton price pressure.

But after all, autumn and winter textile has been stocking up to the next year, and it has brought strong support to cotton prices. Therefore, it is possible to continue to maintain the possibility of regional concussion.

Operation, the 19000-19725 interval concussion, short-term trading is the main.

[German futures] increased market risk, Zheng cotton is difficult to rebound

CF1301 fell back on Tuesday, and CF1301 closed more than 16.1 hands at a close.

CF1301 closed at 19390 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton, reduced 2170 hand; in July 23rd, China imported cotton (FC Index M) 88.85 cents / pound, fell 0.5 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 14285 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 15066 yuan / ton.

New York July 24th, cotton futures on the ICE were lower on Tuesday, the broker said, as the global stock market and grain market crash dragged down the cotton market, driving speculative fund selling.

ICE cotton contract in December fell 1.16 cents, or 1.6%, at 71.03 cents a pound.

In July 24th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 13640 tons, a decrease of 1960 tons compared with the previous day, an increase of 2480 tons in orders and an aggregate purchase of 134620 tons.

On the basic level, although the macro-economic level has again spread sour, the whole commodity market is again under pressure. However, from the perspective of cotton attributes, the main production areas in China are experiencing extreme weather in recent years. Besides, the policy of purchasing and storing the new year also has some support for the market. For example, there is little change in policy information. The market will continue to hype the weather factors. In the short term, the macro-economy will be weak. VS weather factors will make the cotton market repeat.

On Tuesday, Zheng cotton rushed down, although it failed to come down as scheduled, but upward resistance was too large, weak and volatile for the time being, and the external macro environment deteriorated. The basic weakness of Zheng cotton's original weakness was even more shadow. However, because yesterday was too strong, it could wait for a while.

Today's operation recommends, wait and see, CF1301 reference price range is 19200-19500.

[Huaan futures] European debt crisis hits again, Zheng cotton is hard to be independent.

Key points:

1, "Xi Xi" is deeply involved in the European debt crisis and Germany's rating outlook is down to negative. The global economy is at its worst level since 2009, and the stock market and commodities are all down.

2. In June 2012, the export volume of cotton cloth in China decreased by 11.57%, highlighting the difficult position of domestic textile enterprises.

3, by the week of July 22nd, the excellent and good rate of cotton growth in the United States was 47%, and the US cotton supply situation is expected to be good in the new year.

External trend: New York July 24th, cotton futures on the ICE were lower on Tuesday, dragging the cotton market due to the global stock market and grain market crash, driving speculative fund selling.

The stock market is down, as Spanish bond yields continue to rise, making Spain closer to seeking comprehensive relief, which is the latest development of the European debt crisis.

The cotton contract in December fell 1.16 cents, or 1.6%, at 71.03 cents a pound, with a trading session of 70.55-72.69 cents.

Early comment: Spain's local government's debt service ability deteriorated, the economic shrinkage increased, and the Greek rescue plan was frustrated. The overnight stock market in Europe and the United States and the euro and commodity markets fell sharply, and ICE cotton fell.

At home, domestic and foreign cotton prices are still at a high level. Domestic consumption is sluggish. Downstream textile enterprises are also facing difficulties in export difficult sales and domestic demand.

At present, the European debt crisis has hit again, and commodities are all going smoothly. Zheng cotton is hard to be independent, but there is limited space below, and investors are waiting for buying opportunities underneath.

Futures market CF1209 and matchmaking market MA1209 price difference is now nearly 300 yuan / ton, due to the convenience of the delivery warehouse, buying futures trading is purely risk-free arbitrage, short term.

Considerable, relevant enterprises can grasp this arbitrage opportunity.

On the operation, Zheng cotton main force 1301 contract, the early stage many single may choose the machine to leave the field, 19100 below can still buy in batches the medium and long lines many single, the short line day homeopathy paction primarily.