The Overall Economic Situation Of China'S Shoe Leather Products In The First Half Of 2012

The world economy ended in 2011 with a drop of 2.4 percentage points to 3.9%, and the 2012 of the storm still came.

At the beginning of the year, IMF stood at the starting point of the new year, overlooking the global economic growth of 3.3% in 2012 and 3.9% next year.

After 3 months, the data was revised to 3.5% and 4.1%.

In July, the data was released again to 3.5% and 3.9%.

The already sluggish global economic recovery shows signs of further weakness.

As an important part of the world economy, industrial production has not been spared.

In 2011, the growth rate of world industrial production showed a trend of quarterly decline. In the first quarter of 2012, the index continued to fall, especially in developed countries, which fell from the middle low level to the negative level.

The world economy is weakening, let's look at the domestic market.

Central tone "

During the period, the average annual growth rate was 7%. In 2012, the prime minister said that the economic growth rate was expected to be 7.5% this year.

Six months later, the economy grew by 7.8% in the first half of the year, and the figure was 8.1 and 7.6 respectively in the one or two quarter.

Six months ago, IMF predicted that China's economy will grow by 8.2%, and now it will become a prudent 8%.

China's economy can not and can not be left alone in the world economy.

According to the relevant data, world leather, leather products and footwear production growth in the first quarter was 4.4%, down 6.6 percentage points over the same period.

According to national data, China

In the first half of this year, the output value increased by 15.1%, of which the output of main products increased by 6.7%, up 1 percentage points compared with the same period of the same period. However, due to the change of statistical caliber, this data is not convincing enough.

From the trend of business climate index and entrepreneur confidence index, and the purchasing index of professional managers in manufacturing industry in May and June dropped by about 3 points in March and April, the hard days still have a long time to go.

Exports, the first half of the national export growth rate of 9.2%, footwear exports reached 9.7%, the growth rate dropped 12 percentage points.

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The shoe industry may be a little more comfortable. Their export volume increased by 3.5% in the first quarter, -10%, but the unit price increased by 15%.

Since China's footwear is used for export around 80%, exports basically reflect the situation of the footwear industry in China as a whole.

Fortunately, since February, the cumulative growth rate of footwear exports has been rising month by month.

In terms of consumption, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by only 14.4% in the first half of the year. As a total consumption of 86.7% of urban residents, one of the main Battlegrounds of consumption is shopping malls.

But the sales growth rate of large retail enterprises has been decreasing quarterly since last year, reaching a new low of nearly 5 years in the first two months of this year. The first half was basically the same as the 2009 when the financial crisis happened, the lowest growth rate in the past 7 years, down more than half of the same period last year.

Among them, clothing shoes and hats are double-digit with high and medium speed, and the speed drop is also obvious.

Shoes and clothing retail to the European Union is even more tragic. Since last year, no month sales have increased by more than 4%, and occasionally there are a few months low negative digit growth.

Although the proportion of Chinese shoe exports to the US, Europe and Japan has dropped by nearly 10% in recent 6 years, the mire of the European economy has deeply affected the export of China's footwear industry.

Consumption growth is weak, but prices continue to grow. High prices also lower domestic consumption intention.

From the production point of view, the export prices of industrial products began to fall from the second half of last year, which lingered at the negative growth level in the first half of this year, but clothing was still growing at the speed of 2-3%.

In June, CPI fell to 2.2%, and the retail price of clothing and footwear increased by 3.06%. But in the first half of the year, CPI reached 3.3, clothing prices rose 3.5%, and footwear 2.7%.

This figure is more regarded as a statistical figure. There is always a big discrepancy between the personal experience of more consumers and the figures corrected by experts from the National Bureau of statistics.

The price of a pair of domestic medium sandals is six hundred or seven hundred or even higher than that of a refrigerator. It can buy a good smart phone.

Prices are rising, but the efficiency of shoe shops has fallen quarterly since last year.

It has always been targeted at fast fashion.

Sales are on the high speed road, the leading enterprises from a year ago more than 20% growth rate dropped to a low single digit, to the 2 quarter of this year, has been leading the middle and low end of the market in a single brand women's shoes growth rate also declined, compared to the same period last year.

Women's shoes, which can best drive the market, are so popular that the domestic sports brands that had been forgotten for the past few years were in the collective winter.

In the first half of the year, the number of major sporting goods giants can still guarantee low single digit growth. In the autumn and winter, the amount of orders has shifted from positive to negative, which has suddenly become a high number of units.

Under a cloud of cloud, there is still a bit of light, that is, online sales.

According to the Ministry of industry and commerce, the volume of online retail sales has increased rapidly. The average annual growth rate in 11th Five-Year has reached 100.8%. In 2010, retail sales accounted for about 500000000000 Yuan of total retail sales of social consumer goods, accounting for 3.3%.

According to statistics, online retail sales exceeded 800 billion yuan in 2011, about 4.4%.

According to the Ministry of Commerce, this proportion will reach more than 9% in 2015, and the prospect will be attractive.

As the original base is small, the growth of channels under the line is weak, the sales of electronic commerce platforms with footwear as the main business have reached the median low digits, but these one or two years have doubled the speed of over two or three times. The rapid growth of the online industry has also attracted the shoe manufacturers to display their cheers.

The electricity supplier industry is a fast growing industry, but since last year, e-commerce giants have been shouting for the winter and fighting hand in hand in the price war.

The electricity supplier market is full of thunder and lightning. The competition of the electricity supplier is the thousand sail race in the torrents of rivers and streams.

The water is too big to swim and have no strength. Wind up to add some oil, continue to swim, and then no strength. If there is still supplies, it can continue until the shore is listed, no fish feed.

The big guys who enter the electricity business are shouting bitterness, shouting bitter is a reality, and telling them to prepare for diving later. Don't come to this muddy water again.

Wearing shoes was originally for walking. Now the Chinese footwear industry is very tortuous. Where is the Chinese shoe industry?