Cotton Prices Are Expected To Come Out Of A Wave Of Rebound, Investors Can Do More Dips.

Just past July, at home and abroad

In the environment of global economic growth and the different performance of capital market, we continue to deduce the low level of turbulence.

Among them, ICE cotton fingers rose 0.11 cents to 71.67 cents in the whole month, or 0.15% in the month.

The international cotton spot Cotlook A index edged up 0.6 cents to 81.62 cents, or 0.74%.

Zhengzhou cotton index fell slightly from 15 yuan to 18942 yuan, or 0.08%.

Domestic spot cotton price CC Index 328 index rose 159 yuan to 18323 yuan, or 0.88%.

The price of spot cotton has not yet gone out of the underestimation area.

According to the US Department of agriculture's July data, the total cotton consumption in 2011/2012 was 23 million 207 thousand tons, down 6.76% from the previous year.

Among the major cotton consuming countries in the world, only Pakistan's cotton consumption has increased slightly, and the rest of the countries have declined to varying degrees.

In the current downturn in cotton consumption, China's cotton consumption has declined the largest, from 10 million 15 thousand and 300 tons in the previous year to 8 million 926 thousand and 700 tons this year, a drop of 10.87%.

China Cotton Information Network in June for some textile enterprises cotton inventory survey showed that in June cotton inventories increased by 4.06%, a significant decline compared with the same period in previous years.

As of the end of June, the national cotton business inventory was 1 million 730 thousand tons, only 400 thousand tons less than the previous month's survey. This shows that although the inventory of textile enterprises is relatively small, the power to increase inventories is still insufficient.

From a supply perspective, according to the US Department of agriculture, the world's cotton production this year was 26 million 717 thousand tons, an increase of 1 million 609 thousand tons over the previous year, an increase of 6.41%.

With the decline in global cotton consumption this year, the global end of this year's inventory reached 14 million 517 thousand tons, an increase of 4 million 643 thousand and 200 tons over the previous year, an increase of 47.03%.

The global end to end inventory consumption ratio rose to a record 62.56%.

The sharp increase in global cotton inventories has cast a shadow over the cotton market in the longer term.

China's cotton production increased from 9.84% to 7 million 293 thousand and 800 tons in the current year, with an annual import volume of 5 million 62 thousand and 100 tons. The final inventory is expected to be 5 million 950 thousand and 400 tons, and the inventory consumption ratio has reached an alarming 66.61%, far higher than the normal level.

Judging from the upcoming 2012/2013 new year, the main style of supply is still unchanged.

In 2011/2012, the state promulgated

Plan, the annual storage cotton 3 million 130 thousand tons, accounting for 42.88% of the annual national cotton output.

The purchase and storage of cotton farmers also produced another derivative, that is, the high price difference between domestic cotton prices and foreign cotton prices.

In this year's textile enterprises benefit bias, enterprises can not digest the high price difference, textile enterprises look forward to the low price of cotton calls constantly, appropriate dumping, increasing market supply and increasing import quota become the government's possible policy choice.

The market expects that cotton prices will suffer greater downward pressure once they are thrown or renewed.

Although the current cotton industry chain has experienced a rare downturn in recent years, there are still some factors that will facilitate the rebound of cotton prices in the future.

From a global perspective, the first aid measures launched by the euro area will also partly alleviate the impact on the EU itself and the global economy.

The quantitative easing policy launched by the US in the second half of this year, the depreciation of the US dollar and the rise in prices of some farm products caused by the drought in the United States will also provide support for the rebound in prices of soft commodities such as cotton.

This week, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee put forward that we should continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, increase the structural tax reduction policy, maintain steady and moderate growth in monetary and credit, and strive to expand consumption.

All these macroeconomic factors will partly improve the difficult environment faced by the cotton industry and create certain conditions for the expansion of cotton consumption.

After the launch of the 2012/2013 storage and purchase plan, the relevant government departments at different times and occasions emphasized the guiding principles of the new year's cotton purchase and storage price unchanged and the amount of storage and storage. This is undoubtedly helpful to the implementation of the cotton purchase and storage plan this year.

Therefore, in less than a month from the receipt and storage, the fall in cotton prices will be faced with double blockage of arbitrage buying and long-term forces from physical enterprises such as cotton enterprises, textile enterprises and trade enterprises, and the space for cotton price decline has actually been effectively blocked.

It can be predicted that although the current global cotton consumption is still at a low ebb, cotton prices strongly supported by the purchasing and storage policy are very likely to come out of a rally before the end of next year's end of March.

More money will become investors in the rebound cycle.

Appropriate choice of paction.