The Bottom Of Cotton Price Is Now In And Out Quickly.

Since the beginning of 2012, Cotton market Experienced a wave of downright market, but the current price is somewhat embarrassed: on the one hand, prices have fallen below the previous low point, obviously short of risk is obvious; on the other hand, the bottom is not far away, once more, the space above is not known. I believe that the current cotton market operation should be more flexible, perhaps fast forward and fast, high throwing low suction strategy is the most appropriate.

　 Rumors of throwing storage hit again

In the afternoon of July 30th, Cotton futures The disk has become restless, and two consecutive waves of diving have made investors who are buying more and more panic. According to legend, the national cotton store has planned to sell 1 million tons, of which 300 thousand tons of Chen cotton, the selling price of 15000 yuan / ton, 2011/2012 storage and storage of cotton 700 thousand tons, the selling price of 18500 yuan / ton. At that time, futures prices were above 19000 yuan / ton. In the face of such a specific plan, the market still chose to believe. In the first wave of sharp decline, the short squeeze played a leading role, and the second wave of sharp drop was due to more than one failure. These two functions superimposed together, and cotton prices fell below the previous low point of 18635 yuan, the lowest to 18540 yuan. The final price difference is only about 200.

　　 Funds turn to strong varieties

A drought in the United States has created a strong market for soybeans, soybean meal, corn and wheat, and soybean meal has become a star in nearly two months. Every time you step back, you may get higher. With the continuous inflow and outflow of funds, strong varieties such as soybean meal continue to become the object of pursuit, while cotton is eclipsed. Because of the strong linkage between the internal and external markets, so is the foreign commodity market. The situation of the United States and cotton is not good. Originally, it was thought that the high price drop of the internal and external spread should depend on the strong cotton market. Now it seems that the latter is also unable to protect itself. Zheng cotton can only follow the flow of Jin Suibo in the condition of no fundamental guidance.

　　 Profit comes from profit.

In addition to the policy factors, we should also pay attention to the downstream demand, including the inventory of cotton textile enterprises, the supply and demand of cotton in the new year and the growth of new cotton. At present, the inventory of cotton in textile enterprises is very low, which is at a low historical level. However, the stock of upstream cotton enterprises is increasing, indicating that textile enterprises are not actively purchasing. From the "pile up" port cotton inventory, we can see that the early import cotton is too large, and the gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices is 4000 points. The quota price is also "stir fried", and no enterprise is willing to purchase at high price.

The supply and demand of cotton in the new year is not too bad, and the weather speculation may give cotton a chance to turn over. In the middle and late 8 months of the year, cotton entered the critical growing period, after the boll opening period. At present, frequent rainstorms in the north and typhoons in the South will inevitably affect cotton growth in areas such as Shandong. This situation is much more obvious. Is it reliable to fall again?