Overview Of Clothing And Textile Sales Last Month

Key points of fundamental data: After removing the interference factors, the growth rate of clothing terminal retail has been basically stable since the second quarter, but extreme weather factors led to a significant slowdown in the growth rate in July. Wholesale and retail enterprises above designated size clothing Shoes and Hats The retail sales of knitwear, textiles and gold, silver and jewelry grew by 18.4% and 14.0% respectively, 1.8 and 5.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; The growth rate of clothing retail sales and retail sales of 100 key retail enterprises was 11.5% and 2.5% respectively, down 3.9 and 3.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month, Jacket , children's clothing, men's suits and women's clothing retail sales growth is relatively high, and sportswear is not as bad as the market expected. In July, export growth declined significantly; Textile raw materials have shown signs of stabilizing since July, and chemical fiber prices have rebounded significantly since August.

A-share companies: terminal sales and same store growth in July were generally weaker than that in the second quarter due to extreme weather. Fuanna: The sales volume in July is about the same as that in April and May, and is expected to be 15-20%. With the wedding peak in the third and fourth quarters, it is expected to bring continuous impetus; LANCE: In July, the delivery situation is good, and the growth is expected to be faster than that in the second quarter; Septwolves: The direct marketing in July was good, mainly because of the large-scale special sales activities. The order meeting in spring and summer of 2013 began today; Muwang Jiu: Up to now, the selling out rate of agents and direct sales is more than 60%, which is more than 10% higher than that in the middle report period. Comparable stores increased by nearly 10%, among which, comparable stores of department stores increased by more than 5%, and exclusive stores increased by more than 10%; Kanudi Road: In July, the same store growth is expected to be about the same level. In the spring and summer of 2013, the amount of orders will increase by 26% on the basis of an average price reduction of about 3%; Mengjie: Terminal sales in July were slightly lower than that in June, with an increase of nearly 20%. Orders from September to November will reach 300 million yuan.

Hong Kong shares and overseas companies: the first half of the year Sports brand The growth of the same store continued to slow down, and the gross profit rate was dragged down by discounts, and the dealer order execution rate and replenishment rate also declined; The same store growth of Lilang slowed down in the second quarter, and it has begun to reduce the order rate of the order meeting; Daphne's gross profit margin declined due to the substantial increase and discount of its inventory.

Restricted by the weak terminal consumer market, most overseas companies' Q2 revenue and same store growth slowed down.

Trend review: In the first half of August, the performance of the clothing and home textile sector was relatively flat, in line with our expectations, and the textile manufacturing index rebounded significantly; Brand companies with larger A-share gains are Saturday, Septwolves, Souyute, etc., Youngor, Fuanna, Luolai and Baoxiniao, etc. with larger declines, Lilang, Esprit Global, Peak and Prada with larger H-share gains, and Banny Road and Dynamic Group with larger declines.

Investment strategy: In July and the first half of August, the sector was mainly adjusted, which is in line with our recent judgment of consolidation.

The next trend is closely related to the expected situation of the order meeting in August and September next spring and summer. Under the current economic environment, the growth rate of the order meeting held by some companies may slow down, so the industry in August and September is mainly consolidation. Recently, the safety margin of valuation adjustment has been strengthened. After the order meeting in August and September is expected to be basically stable, the base is low in the fourth quarter of last year, and it is expected to still obtain certain absolute returns by the end of the year. The idea of stock selection is mainly to select enterprises with strong retail ability and channel control or potential. The focus is on the three high growth Langzi, Pathfinder and Kanu, and the three steady growth Jiumuwang Seven Wolf And Fuanna. At the current stage, according to the valuation and recent operation and other factors, Langzi, Fuanna and Seven Wolves are highlighted and recommended.

Risk tip: economic slowdown affects consumer demand; Cost increase and profit reduction; Weak external demand affects exports.