The Current Situation Of Clothing Industry: The Export Situation Is Grim And Consumption Growth Is Showing A Downward Trend.

2012 China

The export situation is grim.

According to customs statistics, in the first half of 2012, China completed the export of clothing and accessories 67 billion 515 million US dollars, an increase of 2.57% over the same period, and 13 billion 336 million exports, down 3.60% from the same period last year.

Among them, the export of woven garments was 26 billion 851 million US dollars, down 4.20% compared with the same period last year, and the export volume was 3 billion 862 million, down 6.47% compared with the same period last year. The export of knitted garments was 35 billion 780 million US dollars, up 6.14% over the same period last year, and the number of exports was 9 billion 774 million, down 2.38% from the same period last year.

In the first half of 2012, the average unit price of clothing exports was $4.14 per piece, an increase of 4.81% over the same period in 2011, an increase of 16.36 percentage points from the same period last year.

Clothing export account

The export volume of goods was 57.67%, up 0.2 percentage points from the same period in 2011.

The situation of rising prices and creating prosperity is fading away.

From the monthly export situation, the basic characteristics of exports in the first half of 2012 are "oscillations". Although continuous fluctuations can not give a clear trend, but generally we can see that the amplitude of oscillation gradually narrowed, and the amount and volume increase both approached zero line. Whether the export growth in the "Christmas season" can happen in the second half of the year or the rebound at the end of the year is still a suspense in the oscillation.

At the same time, the increase of export prices has already released the last energy. In 2011, the situation of building prosperity through the "price increase" is fading away. The two lines of value and value tend to coincide.

Perhaps we should have focused more on the trend of "quantity".

The sharp decline in exports to Europe has a strong effect on the export of the industry. From the export situation of China's clothing to every continent, the volume of "value" and "value" fell by only 16.60% in Europe and 12.68% in 2011. Compared with 2011, the export volume of the major export countries of Germany, France, Italy and other major European countries dropped to varying degrees.

The number of exports to Oceania dropped by 8.05% over the same period last year, but exports still maintained a positive growth of 4.35%.

The volume and value of exports to Asia, Africa, Latin America and North America are all positive, even though the growth rate is not satisfactory.

China's export volume and value in Europe and North America are converging. That is to say, the price increase is coming to an end, while exports to emerging markets such as Africa, Latin America and Oceania are much higher than the increase in volume. There is still something to be said about "price" or "export structure".

Exports of eastern provinces and cities are low and stable.

The export of eastern provinces and cities is basically stable, and the increase and decrease of exports in the central and western regions are more obvious.

This can be said to be an inevitable phenomenon in the process of adjustment of industrial regional structure. Although the export growth stagnation in the eastern region, which accounts for 80% of the export volume, is worrying, the low level stability in the East is also a good foundation for the central and western regions to undertake the pfer and the re layout of the national industry.

The export performance of various raw materials is different, and the export of chemical fiber clothing is thriving. "Quantity" and "value" increase. Other raw materials are reduced in quantity and value. Rather than the consumption tendency, the impact of raw material supply and raw material price is more obvious.

The difference between inside and outside cotton prices has aggravated the two supply and demand of cotton products, and the price rise of raw materials such as silk and wool has restrained the export power of natural fiber garments to a certain extent.

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Industrial chain has a synergistic dependence on exports.

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first half of 2012, the proportion of export value of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size accounted for 26.86% of the total industrial output value. If exports accounted for only 1/4 of the total economic output of the industry, certain fluctuations should not cause a great disturbance to the operation of the industry.

But we have to use export volume to correct the optimism before. In the 1~6 month, 13 billion 340 million exports were exported to 10 Chinese people, but the average annual consumption of the Chinese people is far below that level. In terms of quantity, we still highly depend on the international market demand. Serving the whole world is still a survival tool that Chinese garment industry can not abandon for several years.

From the perspective of industrial chain, the textile industry in the upper reaches of clothing seems to have lower external dependence, but many of the domestic textiles are still used for export. This indirect international market dependence may be larger than direct dependence, and the whole chain has a synergistic dependence on exports. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the export problem in the long run.

Finally, we have to mention trade friction. In the first half of 2012, the Ministry of Commerce announced anti-dumping cases involving textiles, clothing, men's suits and socks in Peru, Argentina and Columbia.

Difficulties in domestic demand

Urgent need for coordination between commercial enterprise reform and commercialization of industrial enterprises

At present, China's domestic market is developing and maturing, gradually forming a closed path from the processing and manufacturing industry to the end of the retail industry and service industry, covering and across the agricultural, industrial manufacturing, circulation, business, service industries and other different industries in the field of a complete domestic market as the core of the industrial system.

The current garment industry and business, industry and service industry still present a more obvious fragmented situation. We are accustomed to studying industrial data but not accustomed to contacting business data.

In the future, the operation and reform of commercial enterprises and the acceleration of the commercialization of industrial enterprises will have an impact on the garment industry and bring new opportunities and new prospects, but for now, the industry will still have to bear the plight caused by the slow growth of domestic demand.

In 2012, there was probably no good consumer product except food.

In the economic downturn, the real wealth of the people is shrinking and the consumer confidence is insufficient, clothing can not be alone.

According to statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2012 1~7, the total retail sales of social consumer goods totaled 114537 billion yuan, up 14.2% compared with nominal growth.

Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods in Enterprises above Designated Size (unit) amounted to 50122 billion yuan, an increase of 14.7% over the same period last year, and retail sales of clothing commodities increased by 518 billion 100 million yuan, an increase of 17% over the same period (excluding price factors, with an actual growth rate of less than 14%), representing a decrease of 7.7 percentage points over the same period last year, accounting for 10.34% of the total retail sales of enterprises (units) above the quota.

In the first half of the year, domestic clothing consumption continued to slump, but the trend was basically stable. Before and after the Spring Festival, the climate was abnormal. The bad weather in the southern part of the spring was accompanied by the sales of clothing in the first half of the year. In July, it was the traditional off-season, and the sales fall was expected.

Sales figures of 3000 retail businesses monitored by the Ministry of Commerce showed that clothing in the first half of 2012

Consumption growth continued to decline and showed a downward trend.

The input-output ratio of traditional business is getting lower and lower.

According to the statistics of the China National Business Information Center, in the background of economic slowdown, in the first 6 months of 2012, the major retail enterprises in the country achieved a year-on-year increase in retail sales of clothing products by 11.28%, an increase of 14.11 percentage points from the same period in 2011, a 0.05% decline in sales and a 11.34% increase in clothing sales.

The negative growth of sales amounts to the dismal consumption level of clothing characterized by "higher prices".

At the same time, the lack of collective sales growth in large shopping malls has also challenged the traditional business operation mode. The cost associated with business has been highly criticized, but it is difficult to mitigate the scarcity of commercial resources. For many brand enterprises, the input-output ratio of traditional businesses is getting lower and lower, which restricts the development of brand to a certain extent, but also promotes the brand to promote business mode innovation.

Business model innovation and cost breakdown capability

When it comes to business model innovation, we have to say price. One of the most fundamental reasons for business model innovation is to minimize costs and control prices.

It is easy to see that the price control ability and cost decomposition ability of Chinese clothing enterprises are relatively low.

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According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the clothing price index of clothing in China rose to 103.5 in July, and the clothing consumer price index rose to 103.5 in July. In July, the price of clothing products increased by 3.6 and 3.5 percentage points respectively. The producer price of clothing producers in 1~7 months increased 2.4% over the same period, and 1.9% in July.

New products accounted for less than the actual price.

When the market is extremely depressed and the cost price has not risen obviously, the price of clothing terminal still keeps rising, which is obviously unreasonable.

The analysis shows that the price of new products still keeps the inertia of last year, while the actual price of market supply is not as optimistic as data.

From a statistical point of view, the market price is a comparison of the price of the new products, but in fact, the most prominent feature of the Chinese clothing market in 2012 is the low proportion of new products. In other words, "going stock" is one of the basic features of the Chinese clothing market in 2012.

Inventory risk

Effective mitigation of inventory requires future strategic and tactical coordination of enterprises

The chain reaction of "going to stock" is "going to order". Although the new order index of textile and clothing industry is still above the critical point of 50, I am afraid that the promotion of the tag price to the index can not be ignored. The cold wave has generally been felt in the industry.

We can see from the data that the inventory level of the industry in 2012 is obviously higher than that of the previous year, and the stock of last year has shown a trend of increasing steadily.

Clarifying demand inventory and simple excess

There is a stock demand, but because of information asymmetry or boundary constraints, it can not be pferred to consumers temporarily. This inventory can be digested through channel reform, such as online marketing, OUTLETS, tail cargo market, etc.

If inventory is simply excess, consumers have already got the right commodities, even if the price drops to a very low level, they will not stimulate new consumption, or even affect future sales of genuine products.

No matter what method is used, the inventory problems that can be digested for several years can not be completed in a short time. It will take time and method to effectively relieve inventory pressure and the future strategic direction and tactical coordination of enterprises.

There should be no more growth of 20% in the future.

In the first half of 2012, the growth rate of Chinese clothing regulation enterprises was effectively suppressed, and basically maintained a low growth rate.

According to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, 1~6 months ago, enterprises of above scale in China completed 12 billion 470 million garment production, an increase of 7.73% over the same period last year.

Among them, 6 billion 352 million knitted garments and 6 billion 118 million knitted garments, respectively, increased by 8.05% and 7.40% over the same period in 2011.

Looking at the sustained low growth rate after the financial crisis, we have seen the cautious attitude of large enterprises to output growth.

The positive growth of output is the confirmation of industrial development. Although accumulating a large amount of stock while accumulating industrial scale, the output of new products is the most powerful proof of industrial development as a diversified consumer goods.

The future output should not have increased by about 20% in the past. First, the growth of market demand is not so high. Moreover, the demand growth is more than 20%. We must also improve the effective supply and reduce the inventory through scientific operation mode.

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Demand growth in central and Western China has great potential

The increment of demand has great potential in the central and western regions, but the pformation of industrial regional pattern can not be achieved overnight.

Output in the eastern region still accounts for 80% of the total output of the country, and the slow progress of industrial development in the central and western regions is also evident from the investment data.

According to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, in 1~6 months, enterprises in China's garment industry above Designated Size actually completed investment of 110 billion 127 million yuan, the number of construction projects, the number of new projects and the number of completed projects were 4234, 2635 and 1408 respectively.

The new construction is only 0.87 times the number of completed projects, which is much lower than that in the first quarter, and it has basically reached 1.75 times in the past.

Statistics from enterprises above Designated Size showed that domestic investment in China's garment industry increased by 42.56% over the past 1~6 months, accounting for 91.35% of total investment in 2012, representing a 2.21 percentage point increase over the same period in 2011. Foreign investment in enterprises decreased by 6.71% compared to the same period last year, and investment in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan increased by 27.72% over the same period last year.

Domestic investment is relatively good.

Profit confusion

The competition pattern of garment industry should be diversified and misplaced.

Moderate inhibition of production and investment growth is a good thing in the long run, but the most direct harm to "inventory" is to bear the overall decline in profitability in the short term.

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2012 1~6, 14243 enterprises in the garment industry (above 20 million yuan and above) accounted for 753 billion 770 million yuan in total business revenue, an increase of 11.66% over the same period last year, an increase of 18.89 percentage points over the same period last year.

The total profit was 38 billion 592 million yuan, an increase of 9.66% over the same period last year, an increase of 32.56 percentage points over the same period last year. The total industrial output value was 783 billion 335 million yuan, an increase of 12.90% over the same period last year, an increase of 15.99 percentage points over the same period last year.

In the 1~6 month, 2691 enterprises were losing money, the loss was 18.89%, the deficit increased by 4.62 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the deficit of loss making enterprises increased by 50.62% over the same period last year.

The number of employees was 4 million 287 thousand and 300, down 1.32% from the same period last year.

High financial costs confirm the difficulty of financing

In 2012 1~6, the total industrial output value, main business income and total profit of garment enterprises above designated size increased by 12.90%, 11.66% and 9.66% respectively.

The average gross profit margin of the industry is 15.50%, 0.11 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

The profit margin was 5.12%, 0.09 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

The contribution rate of total assets increased by 0.09 compared with the same period in 2011, and the net assets yield was 0.87 percentage points lower than that in the same period in 2011.

Three fee ratio 8.52%, up 0.46 percentage points over the same period.

The increase in gross margin is accompanied by a decline in net interest rates, and the increase in cost can not be ignored.

From the increase of the three fee in the apparel industry, business expenses, management fees and financial expenses increased by 23.97%, 23.61% and 40% respectively compared with the same period last year. The interest expenses in the financial expenses increased by 37.65% over the same period last year. The three expenses accounted for 42.61%, 48.03% and 9.36% of the total cost respectively.

Improving per capita efficiency for Industry Development

The output value, sales and profit growth dropped significantly, the industry deficit expanded, the amount of losses increased, the number of workers decreased, and the development of the industry was obviously weak.

In the very difficult situation of the industry, the improvement of efficiency can be described as bright.

In the 1~6 month, the number of employees above designated size decreased by 1.32% compared with the same period last year, while the per capita output value, per capita business income and per capita profit increased by 14.41%, 13.15% and 11.12% respectively.

Constructing reasonable and effective industrial ecological pattern

Although we hope that the industry will embark on the intensive road and form a large industrial group and multinational group with strong international competitiveness as soon as possible, we must also admit that the base of the garment industry is still a large SME group.

Unlike many investment driven industries, the apparel industry can easily form a diversified dislocation competition.

Small businesses rely more on limited markets, limited loans, and limited policy survival. Instead, they gain more reliable and lasting development momentum in a big business ecosystem.

In the future, small businesses will be more and more difficult to survive in isolation. They may develop together in the form of industrial clusters, or be associated with a large enterprise, or absorb external investment to grow rapidly into large and medium-sized enterprises with radiation capability.

The SAIC's life expectancy is only 2.9 years. Prolonging the life span of enterprises and enhancing the vitality of enterprises are indeed one of the basic functions of industrial ecology.