Rumors Of Dumping And Storage Have Led To A Fall In Cotton Prices. Zheng Cotton Is Looking For A Way Out.

7 end of the month rumors of dumping and storage Cotton price Crash, 8 months at the end of the toss store rumors again struck, cotton prices again weak downward. Rumors of dumping and storage shrouded the market, and the cotton weakness has not improved. The new year's storage is approaching.

According to sources in the industry, the NDRC will launch 1 million tons of national cotton reserves in September. Recently, the relevant management departments have discussed closely about the details of throwing and storing, and the specific way of throwing and storing is directional storage or the quota scheme of the imported cotton has been discussed. The relevant departments of dumping and reserve prices are also divided, mainly in 16000 yuan / ton or 18500 yuan / ton. The market will not be groundless, nor will it fall for no reason.

　 First, is it just a rumor?

Since the state chooses to throw away the reserve policy, there are two reasons: first, the reduction of cotton supply in the market needs to throw and store up to meet the demand; the two is that the cotton price is too high to be abandoned to stabilize the price.

1., there is no shortage of cotton in the market.

In July, 406 thousand tons of cotton imported, an increase of 158% over the same period last year, while the import of cotton grew 133% to 3 million 459 thousand tons in 1-7 months. Although the backlog of cotton stocks is serious, the 400 thousand ton processing trade quota has also been able to slow down the pressure. In July, cotton business inventories were 1 million 470 thousand tons and 1 million 350 thousand tons last year. And in late August. Xinjiang cotton and mainland cotton are listed on the market. The shortage of new cotton is unlikely.

In the long run, according to the global cotton supply and demand forecast issued by the US Department of agriculture (USDA) in August 10th, China's cotton production in 2012/13 is estimated to be 31 million packages. The cotton inventory at the end of the year is estimated to be 34 million 180 thousand packages, and the cotton Association's latest estimate of cotton production is 6 million 970 thousand tons. In addition, the cotton supply and storage in the new year will not be a problem for cotton supply.

Two cotton Price steadiness

In August 27th, China's cotton price index rose 10 points, to 18440. Domestic sales prices of lint were stable, and individual areas fell slightly or increased by 10-20 yuan / ton. The national grade three lint price is 18100 - 18700 yuan / ton, and the four grade lint price is 17380 - 18100 yuan / ton. The deal continued to be in a doldrums.

Domestic cotton spot prices are stable, cotton prices 19000-19700 narrow shocks, although the price of cotton in the United States has rebounded earlier than before, but the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is still relatively large.

　 Two, cotton throwing is not necessarily a rumor.

The conventional reason can not explain the cotton throwing and storing policy, and the reason for policy may be a major driving force for dumping. Throwing and storing 100W tons of cotton will not bring much pressure to the weak cotton base. After all, the contradiction between supply and demand is not two days a day, nor is it a problem that 100W cotton can solve. According to the author's analysis, the policy factors of dumping and storage may have the following aspects: first, proper throwing and storing cotton can better control the cotton market in a deeper level, providing the market basis for the future purchase and storage policy of the country; two, throwing the store will cause the cotton price to fall and further the cost pressure of the textile enterprises; three, the difference between the inside and outside cotton will be narrowed, which is conducive to the balance of the international cotton price.

Three, coping strategies

Cotton throwing and storage are more prone to policy factors, so market reaction should be more inclined to policy considerations. Cotton storage and storage is approaching in the new year. Although the storage and storage standards have been improved, the price of 20400 yuan / ton will not change. The cotton spot price and cotton purchase and storage price during the period of storage and purchase are maintained at 2000 yuan / ton, which is more reasonable. If the spread of cotton prices is more exaggerated, then the collection and storage of the new year will not play a stabilizing role in the market. Instead, it will make the market price more confusing and difficult to grasp, and it will be a loss to the production and processing industry and textile demand, which will cause greater losses to cotton farmers and will also be unfavorable to the long-term development of the cotton industry chain.

In view of the uncertainty of the rumor, the cotton operation should be cautious. Cotton futures have been on the offensive for 19700, but it has dropped to 19300. In view of the complexity of policy factors, Stage cotton Recently, the operation should pay more attention to the key points. The 19000-19100 support can be regarded as the high price watershed of cotton price in recent days. It is advisable to lower a lot of items on the operation, but the stop loss point must be in place, because the rumour of throwing the stock is uncertain, and the price of dumping is even more uncertain.