Cotton Importing Cotton Producers Are Still Storing Cotton In Qingdao.

Iron ore,

(19525,30.00,0.15%) there is no obvious easing of the phenomenon of such concentrated commodities, which reflects the downward pressure on the economy.

Due to the pressure of inventory, after July, the port absorbed new coal power shortage, and weather factors, the port coal inventory pressure dropped, but this does not mean that the coal production and sales situation has improved. The coal industry chain's "de Stocking" process is still a long way to go.

Insiders say that coal and iron ore have been known as "black gold" before going out of the "golden ten years" market. The reversal of this year's surprise may not only be the reason for the weak demand in the background of the economic downturn, but also more likely to mean that the market discourse right will become weaker in the economic pformation.

Iron ore and cotton are piling up.

Pressure to digest inventory is hard to say.

Qingdao port is one of the largest iron ore import ports in China.

At noon on August 12th, in the direction of the Iron Ore Wharf in the front Bay area of Qingdao port, the whistle of the cargo ship came from time to time.

The brown and gray iron ore powder discharged from the freighter passes through the conveyor belt to the yard, and is then formed into a small hill waiting to be shipped to various steel mills.

But this year, iron ore has "waited" for some time.

A worker who just walked out of the yard pointed to the brown iron ore pile over 100 meters away. He said, "some iron ore is shipped away in the port area for a month, and some can be put on for one or two years or even longer."

The cost of stacking is more than 10 Fen yuan per day.

A "Alexander" ship from Australia is slowly approaching the shore. The staff told reporters that the ship contained 176 thousand tons of iron ore, and the 200 thousand ton iron ore terminal almost stopped at two cargo ships every day, that is, 350 thousand tons of imported iron ore.

The port staff of Qingdao port, former port company, said that two ships were on shore every day.

In an explanatory material, Qingdao port indicated that as of May 31st, the port port of Qingdao port had a stock of 15 million 710 thousand tons, at a normal level, and there was no backlog.

In fact, the 15 million 710 thousand ton stock is not small.

The highest historical value of Qingdao's iron ore inventory occurred during the economic crisis of 2008. As the major steel mills reduced production, iron ore inventories reached 16 million 900 thousand tons.

"At that time, in order to make a pile of iron ore, we demolished a three storey office building."

Qingdao port stakeholders said.

According to the "iron and steel net" iron ore port inventory statistics, as of August 24th, the total iron ore inventory of the 30 main ports in the country was 98 million 950 thousand tons, up 830 thousand tons from the previous week, rising for two consecutive weeks, and total inventories reached a 23 week high.

Compared with the same period last year (August 26, 2011), total inventories increased by 3 million 740 thousand tons.

Port inventory is still expected to increase in the near future.

As imports increased and market demand decreased, China's iron ore port inventory remained at a high level since last October, and prices also declined.

In the iron ore market, the price of US $110 / ton was once regarded as the unbreakable bottom line, but the 63.5% India powder mine futures quotation for 27 days has dropped to 106-108 US dollars / ton.

In the process of communication with several iron ore traders, the "hold up" is almost the most frequent word.

"In the past, the price of iron ore fluctuated several times every year, so that the company could make the band and earn the price difference through trade.

But this year, prices have been very low, and there is no driving force for them. They are afraid to hoard goods and fear to be stuck. "

The owner of an iron ore trading company said that the scene of steel mills in the past asking him to help import iron ore had disappeared this year.

Since February this year, steel mills have reduced orders. In the past, they had to deal with three single contracts a day, but now there is not a single contract in a week.

Even if he visits himself in person, it will not work, especially for some small steel mills.

There are also cotton traders.

Qingdao's Huangdao port, China's largest cotton import port, is showing a state of "cotton full".

This year's imported cotton has "burst", but cotton traders are still hoarding imported cotton.

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Qingdao Jinyu Logistics Co., Ltd. is a large cotton logistics enterprise in Qingdao bonded port area. At present, the imported cotton warehouse stock has reached 40 thousand tons of the company's full load state.

The head of the company told reporters that the cotton stock situation in previous years had never been as full as this year. The stock reached 70% before.

The lint that is compressed into cuboid is stacked up nearly 20 meters high. The earliest time for cotton to arrive at port is January 2011.

The situation of these enterprises is not a case. At present, more than 100 cotton logistics warehouses in Qingdao bonded area are full, and cotton is piling up.

Because cotton developers misjudged the situation, they sold a lot of cotton in order to make a big profit when the cotton price was low.

A cotton trader said that in the past, traders overloaded tens of thousands of tons of goods even more, and now the backlog of tens of thousands, or even one hundred thousand tons of goods traders are in the minority.

According to the current market, a ton of cotton will be overloaded, and traders will lose at least 3000 yuan. If the backlog is one hundred thousand tons, they will lose hundreds of millions of dollars.

The storage cost of many warehouses has risen from about 0.7 yuan / ton to 2 yuan / ton, but it is still difficult to stop increasing cotton storage.

As the warehouse of Qingdao bonded zone is full, many dealers are eyeing the warehouses of Weifang and Gaomi.

"Orders were basically discussed last year. Many cotton spinning enterprises generally believe that the price of imported cotton is very low this year, so they have to copy the bottom and increase the import volume of cotton."

A certain Shandong

The person in charge told the reporter that the price of imported cotton is about 14000 yuan / ton compared with the current 18200 yuan / ton domestic cotton, and the price difference is about 4000 yuan per ton, while the highest price is 5000 yuan / ton.

However, because of the quota system, cotton can not be imported even if the imported cotton is pressed.

There are more than 100 cotton distributors in the Qingdao free trade zone. Most of them are on the sidelines. They expect to issue additional quotas or wait until September when they are short of cotton in Southeast Asian countries.

And based on the current textile industry encountered high inventory problems, cotton dealers in the short term to digest inventory pressure is hard to say optimistic.

Coal port backlog temporarily relieved

Short term demand is still hard to improve.

"In the first half of this year, the main reason for the coal shortage in the north is the imbalance between supply and demand.

Affected by the downward trend of domestic economic growth, the growth of industrial electricity consumption has dropped, leading to a decline in the demand for coal market.

At the same time, the south of this year is rich in rainfall, and the hydropower generation has increased significantly, and some thermal power plant units have been shut down.

An Zhiyuan, a coal industry analyst at Qinhuangdao's maritime coal trading market, said.

Reporters in Qinhuangdao in August 14th learned that, in the first half of this year, many coal backlogs could not be sold at ports, and the highest inventory of coal in Qinhuangdao port exceeded 9 million 400 thousand tons, far exceeding the warning line.

A scheduling worker said that since April this year, he often had nothing to do but to turn over the newspaper and read the news online.

A trader told reporters that he had been engaged in coal trade for more than 10 years. In his impression, there was no phenomenon of coal loading without ships since Qinhuangdao port opened.

However, after the middle of August, the situation of coal pressure port gradually improved.

According to the data of Qinhuangdao coal port center, in August 28th, Qinhuangdao port coal inventory dropped from 7 million 7 thousand tons last week to 6 million 384 thousand tons.

According to the analysis of the industry, the port was forced to go out of stock pressure. After July, the new coal power was insufficient. From the end of July to the beginning of August, the coal pportation in the Bohai rim area was generally affected by typhoons and continuous heavy rainfall, resulting in a significant reduction in the railway coal pfer volume.

In the past three weeks, the volume of coal pfer has been at a low level, resulting in a decline in Port coal inventories.

The latest news shows that the Caofeidian Port coal terminal two phase project will be put into operation in the near future. The new 50 million tons shipping capacity will help to improve the supply capacity of the coal industry, and will also share the total volume of the Datong Qinhuangdao line, and the coal pfer volume of other ports will also be reduced correspondingly.

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But the above situation does not mean that the coal production and sales have improved, and the "de Stocking" process of the coal industry chain is still a long way to go.

A coal business person admitted that the company sent coal to Qinhuangdao and other ports is not good, sales are not optimistic.

The latest economic data show that the current domestic economy is still hovering at the bottom. The industry believes that considering the inertia of macroeconomic operation and the lag of policy, expansionary policies will not be effective in the short term, so the coal market is still not completely satisfied with the basic conditions for improvement.

"At present, China's economy is in the pition period of economic growth, from the stage of rapid growth to the stage of rapid growth. The conversion period will take some time.

Coal demand has entered a relatively intense stage, and the demand for scale will also exist in a certain period. The demand for coal will be significantly reduced after 13th Five-Year.

Zhao Qingming, an adjunct professor at the school of finance at University of International Business and Economics, said micro-blog's economic restructuring will not happen overnight, but a painful and long-term process.

Enterprises encounter "cold winter"

Supply and demand imbalance superimposed pformation pains

Although it is a hot summer season, when the reporter interviewed cotton producing areas and cotton textile enterprises, he felt the chill of the cotton spinning industry chain.

Binzhou, known as the capital of China's cotton, has accounted for 1/4 of the country's cotton yarn exports.

In the interview, the reporter found that many local textile mills were already empty.

A textile company in Wucheng County, Shandong Province, has been closed down. The company has only 10 thousand spindles, and a staff member left behind said, "now many textile enterprises have been pferred to a very low level, and the market is very bad."

Newspaper reporters learned that Shandong, Yuncheng, Gaomi, Xiajin and other places, gathered hundreds of small and medium-sized cotton spinning enterprises.

"Due to the recession of the whole cotton spinning industry, most of the small and medium sized cotton spinning enterprises have limited production, and some of them have been discontinued."

Ma Junkai, Secretary General of Dezhou Cotton Association, said in an interview with the newspaper reporters that many large and medium sized cotton spinning enterprises whose production volume was between 100 thousand and 500 thousand spindles is now generally inadequate, leading to the cotton textile industry entering "hibernation".

If the port is compared to the oral cavity, the port will continue to eat, and the warehouse with gastric function will seriously "accumulate food".

The downstream cotton mills are weak in digestion and absorption, resulting in disorder and indigestion in the cotton spinning industry.

The downturn in the textile industry has actually begun since last year.

According to the data released by China Customs, in 2011, China's textile exports totaled 94 billion 700 million US dollars, up 22.9% from the same period last year, but the growth rate dropped 6.5 percentage points.

Shandong province exported 9 billion 100 million US dollars in 1-6 months this year, down 4.2% compared with the same period last year.

Newspaper reporters learned that, compared with the high price of 32000 yuan / ton cotton in early 2009, today's price can be said to be parity.

Ma Junkai said that this year the world's cotton production area is large, the output is large, the supply exceeds demand, coupled with the economic recession and the reduction of cotton consumption, the international cotton prices have dropped sharply.

Compared with Southeast Asian countries, China's cotton has no cost advantage.

In recent years, domestic cotton prices have gone down, which has not benefited textile enterprises, and has also hit some cotton farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton.

Zhou Ji's village is mostly saline and alkaline land, and its water content is small. It is not suitable for planting wheat (2530,4.00,0.16%) and corn (2385, -7.00, -0.29%) and other food crops.

"If it weren't for soil limitations, farmers would have abandoned cotton and grain."

Zhou Ji said, "recently I heard that cotton is on the price again, which is 3 yuan and 2 cents per catty. In 2010, when the price of cotton was the highest, it reached 7 yuan a Jin, and now it can not earn money from planting cotton."

In fact, the cotton planting area in Shandong has been declining.

Ma Junkai introduced that the cotton planting area of Dezhou in 2012 was 1 million 300 thousand mu, 20% lower than last year, while the whole Shandong province decreased by 15%.

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A few days ago, the national cotton market monitoring system released the "2011 cotton annual textile enterprise survival survey report". The survey found that the main difficulties encountered in the current textile enterprises' operation and development were three of the enterprises with the highest proportion of choice: "overcapacity in the industry, fierce competition in prices," "falling prices, increased risk of inventory depreciation", "reduction in orders at home and abroad, and greater difficulty in market development".

In addition, the rapid increase in labor costs is also a long-term factor.

The survey shows that cotton spinning enterprises generally tend to be cautious about future expectations, and 65.5% of the surveyed enterprises expect the textile industry to "continue to slow down".

The downturn in the iron ore trade has exacerbated the operating conditions of many shipping companies.

The shipping company that handles ship related business is very dismal this year. In early 2011, there were 131 qualified shipping companies in Qingdao, and only 106 got qualified at the beginning of this year.

Many companies that are originally engaged in iron ore business are seeking pformation or simply changing careers.

"My steel network" information director, senior analyst Xu Xiangchun said that the current situation of the steel industry is the inevitable result of high-speed development in the past few years, and the golden period of development of China's steel industry has passed.

The industry is plunged into a decline in demand resulting in overcapacity, raw materials, labor costs and so on, and the squeeze from both upstream and downstream is predicament, which is not expected to be temporary.

"Although the whole industry will not lose money for a long time, the dilemma will remain unchanged in the short term, and it will last for 3-5 years."

In recent years, iron and steel enterprises with large scale expansion, heavy financial burden and large risk of capital chain breakage may collapse.

Experts believe that the pressure port is only a superficial phenomenon. The iron ore and cotton pressure port reflects the survival status of the upstream and downstream industries. The industry's malpractice and extensive investment are really worth attracting attention.

The hardship of the coal and steel industry reflects the pain of China's economic pformation.

According to the insiders, the coal that has been robbed by the public is now less popular. The reason behind it is the long-term disorder of the pricing mechanism of coal and electricity prices, and the "hard ice" of the power system reform.

The iron and steel industry is in "extremely deep cold". Steel mills are still expanding their capacity. The formation of this chaos is caused by extensive industrial growth caused by historical reasons, and the failure of market regulation mechanism, which is a vicious attack on the survival of the industry.

For some industries, economic restructuring is the only way out.

Some experts say that China's iron and steel production accounts for 46% of the world's total, but there is no pricing power on iron ore.

Therefore, in the future, both at the government level and at the enterprise level, we need to make great efforts in resources and do a good job in resource protection system construction, including strengthening domestic and international resource integration.

Liu Ligang, director of economic research at the Greater China region of Australia and New Zealand, believes that in the course of the economic downturn, we should not repeat the 2009-2010 year plan of administrative planning.

Facing the difficulties of economic slowdown, China's economic pformation is even more serious.

The turning point of pformation mode.